The quantitative science of how civilizations maintain coherence, accumulate stress, approach phase transitions, and reorganize — with particular attention to the role of information architecture in accelerating or damping these dynamics.
Satchel Hamilton · Civilodynamics Initiative · founding research program
Civilodynamics models a society as a complex dynamical system whose structural state can be measured and whose proximity to qualitative reorganization can be estimated. It does not forecast specific events; it aims to characterize when a civilization has entered a regime in which disruption becomes probable, and to track that probability with calibrated, falsifiable rigor.
It extends — and does not replace — the cliodynamics program of Peter Turchin and colleagues, to which it owes its empirical foundation. Its claim to distinctness rests on three narrow extensions: (1) the epistemic/information layer as a first-class state variable; (2) the integration of recurrent social forms with theoretical morphospace (the poliform framework); and (3) real-time measurement.
The discipline is at its founding. The framework is a coherent, falsifiable skeleton: no index has yet been computed end-to-end against data, and no retrodiction has been scored. Quantities in these documents are illustrative estimates, labeled as such; predictions, where made, are registered in advance and will be scored. The work ahead is measurement, computation, and validation — and this repository is where it happens in the open.
| # | Document | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Foundational Charter | The discipline's constitution: commitments, scope, validation philosophy, ethics |
| 2 | Mathematical & Methodological Foundations | The formal core; governs all mathematics |
| 3 | Poliform Theory | Recurrent social forms as basins of attraction in a morphospace |
| 4 | Measurement Program & Data Architecture | How each index is operationalized, sourced, and released |
| 5 | U.S. 2000–2024 Case Study | Flagship application with five registered predictions |
| 6 | Retrodiction Casebook | Historical test set, negative controls, and a pre-registered quantitative test |
| 7 | Lexicon & Ontology | Controlled vocabulary, notation, and the concept type-system |
| 8 | Program & Milestone Map | The living roadmap — start here for "where the program stands" |
The first instrument of the discipline — the Epistemic Coherence Index, beginning with its Factual Consensus Rate component (the highest-priority empirical investment, Charter §5):
| # | Document | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | FCR Instrument & Pre-Registration | The fieldable FCR specification |
| 10 | FCR Anchor-Core Item Bank | The instrument: items, ground-truth sources, directional-balance ledger |
| 11 | FCR Pre-Analysis Plan | The registry-grade analysis plan, frozen before fielding |
| 12 | FCR Adjudication & Pretest Protocol | The procedures that take the instrument to freeze |
New here? Read the Charter for the why, then the Program & Milestone Map for the current state and what comes next. The Lexicon defines every term and symbol.
See CITATION.cff. A citable, timestamped version is archived on Zenodo: 10.5281/zenodo.20917966.
Text and documents are licensed CC BY 4.0. Share and adapt with attribution.
contact@civilodynamics.org (placeholder pending domain registration).
Founding research drafts. Cite with caution. The framework is a falsifiable skeleton; reported quantities are illustrative estimates pending computation.