Method v2.0: one canonical six-phase sequence, DNA after scenarios

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -5,6 +5,21 @@ All notable changes to the Specula Method open documentation will be documented
 The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/),
 and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0.html).
 
+## [2.0.0] - 2026-10-21
+
+### Changed
+- `docs/method-overview.md`: v2.0 rewrite. One canonical six-phase sequence shared with `specula-bos` and the `specula-framework` schemas (`0`, `1`, `1.5`, `2` to `6`). Framing moves to Phase 0; the Ethical DNA moves after Scenario Generation, into Phase 2 (Brand Archaeology & Value Stress Test). Breaking change: the v1.1 seven-phase sequence is retired, with a mapping table v1.1 → v2.0.
+- `docs/method-overview.md`: Phase 0 records threshold conditions with observable evidence and closes with a written consensus on research question, time window and working rules. Scenario construction rule (four generic futures, closed megatrends shared, one scenario against the strongest declared value, horizon 10–15 years). Value Stress Test on the operational form of values, judged by people who did not build the scenarios, with Causal Layered Analysis as second method. Preferable future designed in Phase 4 with backcasting. Decision criteria as hypotheses with expected effect and review date; Decision Log. Drift classification (error, superseded model, learning). Radar alerts on combinations of indicators. New section "Time and Compression". Metrics with calculation procedures. New role: External Reviewer.
+- `README.md`: six-phase section aligned to v2.0, Phase 0 added; ecosystem table lists five repositories, `specula-handbook` included.
+- `docs/runtime-alignment.md`: phase mapping restored to the runtime schema phases; fields added in `specula-framework` 1.3 listed.
+- `docs/ai-governance.md`: scenario governance follows the construction rule; the preferable future is designed in Phase 4; Phase 2 review by people outside the scenario team; drift classification in Phase 6.
+- `docs/ethical-framework.md`: the Ethical + Impact Gate closes Phase 3.
+- `docs/community-co-creation-protocol.md` (1.1): new section on who sets the values, with three counterweights and speaking rules; corrected phase reference for speculative futures (Phase 1).
+- `examples/session_example_01.md`: horizon 2036; `scenario_type` `exploratory` with `archetype` `discipline` (`preferred` is deprecated in `specula-framework` 1.3).
+
+### Added
+- `docs/method-evolution.md`: v2.0 entry.
+
 ## [1.1.0] - 2026-06-04
 
 ### Added

README.md

@@ -24,14 +24,15 @@ Specula is a strategic design method that uses futures as tools to build living,
 
 ## SPECULA Ecosystem
 
-This repository is one of three related SPECULA repositories:
+This repository is one of five related SPECULA repositories:
 
 | Repository | Primary purpose | Primary audience |
 |---|---|---|
 | [`specula-bos`](https://github.com/oddtitoreal/specula-bos) | Brand Operating System — the product architecture built with the method | Organizations, practitioners implementing BOS for clients |
 | [`specula-framework`](https://github.com/oddtitoreal/specula-framework) | Canonical docs/specs/schemas/runtime profile | Governance architects, technical contributors |
 | `specula-method` (this repo) | Strategic foresight branding method and facilitation profile | Strategists, designers, innovation teams |
 | [`specula-skill`](https://github.com/oddtitoreal/specula-skill) | Constitution/state-machine implementation skill | AI engineers, governance implementers |
+| [`specula-handbook`](https://github.com/oddtitoreal/specula-handbook) | Operational handbook in Italian ([docs.specula.design](https://docs.specula.design)) | Decision-makers, facilitators, students |
 
 Choose your entry point:
 - If you want to understand what the method builds → use `specula-bos`.
@@ -64,33 +65,38 @@ The framework is designed to be:
 
 ## The Six-Phase Method
 
-### Phase 1 — Scenario Generation
-Opening the field through multiple possible and desirable futures. Uses desk analysis, interviews, explorative sessions, and AI to analyze weak signals and unusual correlations, combining cultural, technological, economic, regulatory, and environmental drivers.
+The canonical sequence is shared with [`specula-bos`](https://github.com/oddtitoreal/specula-bos) and with the runtime schemas of [`specula-framework`](https://github.com/oddtitoreal/specula-framework). Scenarios come before values: the scenarios are the test that produces the Speculative Brand DNA. Full detail in the [Method Overview](./docs/method-overview.md).
 
-### Phase 1.5 — Competitive Futures Mapping
-Analyzing competitors' speculative trajectories: not just present campaigns, but research investments, partnerships, emerging languages, narrative territories they're occupying. The goal is to find the "white spaces"—futures no one is credibly presiding over yet.
+### Phase 0 · Threshold & Framing
+Verifying the three threshold conditions (real mandate, recognized crisis, willingness to subtract) with observable evidence, recorded in a Threshold Sheet. Putting the brief under stress and closing with a written consensus on research question, time window, and working rules.
 
-### Phase 2 — Brand Archeology
-Excavating what must remain stable across multiple scenarios: radical values, worldview, forms of care, inviolable limits. Uses the **Speculative Identity Model**: a canvas working on six intertwined dimensions—radical values, persona/entity, agency, speculative interactions, preferable horizons, alternative tools and metrics.
+### Phase 1 · Scenario Generation
+Opening the field through multiple futures. Weak signals are collected by people across cultural, technological, economic, regulatory, and environmental domains, with AI supporting correlations. Four scenarios are built with an explicit construction rule: one per generic future (growth, collapse, discipline, transformation), closed megatrends shared by all, one scenario built against the brand's strongest declared value, a horizon of 10–15 years.
 
-### Phase 3 — Future Prototyping & Ethical Gate
+### Phase 1.5 · Competitive Futures Mapping
+Analyzing competitors' speculative trajectories: not just present campaigns, but research investments, partnerships, emerging languages, narrative territories they're occupying. The goal is to find the "white spaces": futures no one is credibly presiding over yet, each labelled as trend or countertrend.
+
+### Phase 2 · Brand Archeology & Value Stress Test
+Excavating what holds across the scenarios: radical values, worldview, forms of care, inviolable limits. Traces come from documents as well as stories, and counterexamples are searched for actively. Each candidate value is written in operational form and projected into every scenario; people who did not build the scenarios judge whether it holds. Uses the **Speculative Identity Model**: a canvas working on six intertwined dimensions: radical values, persona/entity, agency, speculative interactions, preferable horizons, alternative tools and metrics.
+
+### Phase 3 · Future Prototyping & Ethical Gate
 Testing the brand in different futures through speculative design exercises, storytelling, service storyboards, narrative and conversational interfaces. Includes the **Resilience Protocol**: four stress-test scenarios (recession, regulatory revolution, technological discontinuity, plus a Wild Card black swan).
 
 The **Ethical Gate** is a formal checkpoint asking:
 - Does this scenario violate declared radical values?
 - Does it introduce manipulative, extractive, or exclusionary practices?
 - Does it create unacceptable technological, social, or environmental dependencies?
 
-Rejected prototypes are logged in the **Registry of Refusals**—what the brand chose not to become.
+Rejected prototypes are logged in the **Registry of Refusals**: what the brand chose not to become.
 
-### Phase 4 — Narrative Synthesis
-Transforming the constellation of elements into coherent story systems capable of living across multiple time horizons. Produces adaptive narratives that can modulate depending on which scenario materializes, while keeping the core recognizable.
+### Phase 4 · Narrative Synthesis & Strategic Protocol
+Designing the preferable future after the exploration, as a project of its own, and connecting it to the present through backcasting in each scenario. Transforming the constellation of elements into story systems that can live across multiple time horizons. Translating values into decision criteria that carry an expected effect and a review date, recorded in a Decision Log.
 
-### Phase 5 — Co-creation & Community Governance
-Exposing the preferable future hypothesis to dialogue with communities: customers, partners, suppliers, territories, activists. AI acts as a designed mediator to amplify significant divergences without transforming them into destructive polarization.
+### Phase 5 · Co-creation & Community Governance
+Exposing the preferable future to dialogue with communities: customers, partners, suppliers, territories, activists. The Synthesis Circle fixes the values; the community shapes how they are put into practice, and dissent is logged. AI acts as a designed mediator to amplify significant divergences without transforming them into destructive polarization.
 
-### Phase 6 — Activation & Specula Guardian
-Translating work into concrete roadmap: projects, prototypes, releases, experiments, investments. **Specula Guardian** is a long-term accompaniment pact: monitoring the gap between imagined future and emerging reality, with an **Emergency Re-Speculation Clause** triggered when signals significantly diverge for two consecutive quarters.
+### Phase 6 · Activation & Specula Guardian
+Translating work into concrete roadmap: projects, prototypes, releases, experiments, investments. **Specula Guardian** monitors the gap between imagined future and emerging reality and classifies every drift as error, superseded model, or learning. The **Emergency Re-Speculation Clause** is triggered when signals significantly diverge for two consecutive quarters.
 
 ---
 
@@ -203,4 +209,4 @@ See [ATTRIBUTION.md](ATTRIBUTION.md) for full guidelines.
 
 ---
 
-*Version 1.0 — Last updated: February 2026*
+*Version 2.0, October 2026*

docs/ai-governance.md

@@ -26,16 +26,16 @@ This document outlines how AI is used responsibly within the framework, what lim
 ---
 
 ### 2. Scenario Generation
-**Purpose**: Building plausible and preferable future scenarios by combining multiple drivers.
+**Purpose**: Building divergent future scenarios by combining multiple drivers.
 
 **How it works**:
 - Language and visual models generate scenarios combining cultural, technological, economic, regulatory, and environmental factors
 - High-temperature configurations (more randomness) encourage unexpected combinations
 - Models explicitly prompted to generate "uncomfortable" scenarios where brand assumptions break down
 
-**Human role**: Selecting which scenarios to develop further, ensuring plausibility, choosing preferable directions
+**Human role**: Applying the construction rule (four generic futures, closed megatrends shared by all scenarios, one scenario built against the brand's strongest declared value) and checking internal consistency. The preferable future is designed later, in Phase 4, as a project of its own.
 
-**Example**: Generating a 2030 scenario where water scarcity makes traditional cosmetics manufacturing impossible, forcing brands to reimagine production entirely.
+**Example**: Generating a 2038 scenario where water scarcity makes traditional cosmetics manufacturing impossible, forcing brands to reimagine production entirely.
 
 ---
 
@@ -139,21 +139,21 @@ AI generates coherent scenarios efficiently, but has no intrinsic understanding
 ### 4. Lacks Value Understanding
 AI doesn't "understand" declared values except through constraints we design into prompts and evaluation criteria.
 
-**Our response**: Values are defined by humans in Phase 2 and encoded as explicit filters. AI operates within those constraints, not independently.
+**Our response**: Values are tested by humans in Phase 2, through the Value Stress Test, and encoded as explicit filters. AI operates within those constraints, not independently.
 
 ---
 
 ## Governance in Each Phase
 
 ### Phase 1: Scenario Generation
 **AI Role**: High creativity, exploratory  
-**Governance**: Human selection of which scenarios advance, validation of plausibility  
+**Governance**: Humans apply the construction rule; AI proposals that converge on the present are discarded  
 **Temperature**: High (0.8-0.9) to encourage divergence  
-**Review**: All scenarios reviewed for bias and plausibility before client presentation
+**Review**: All scenarios reviewed for bias and internal consistency before client presentation
 
 ### Phase 2: Brand Archeology
 **AI Role**: Pattern recognition in existing materials  
-**Governance**: Humans define radical values, AI surfaces tensions  
+**Governance**: Humans write candidate values in operational form; reviewers who did not build the scenarios judge the Value Stress Test; AI surfaces tensions and incoherences in the corpus  
 **Temperature**: Medium (0.6-0.7)  
 **Review**: Synthesis validated against actual organizational behavior and history
 
@@ -164,8 +164,8 @@ AI doesn't "understand" declared values except through constraints we design int
 **Review**: Every prototype through Ethical Gate before advancing
 
 ### Phase 4: Narrative Synthesis
-**AI Role**: Draft narratives, explore registers and voices  
-**Governance**: Human selection of tone, approval of final narratives  
+**AI Role**: Draft narratives and backcasting paths, explore registers and voices  
+**Governance**: Humans design the preferable future, select tone, approve final narratives and decision criteria  
 **Temperature**: Medium (0.5-0.7)  
 **Review**: Client team approves all narrative directions and final copy
 
@@ -177,7 +177,7 @@ AI doesn't "understand" declared values except through constraints we design int
 
 ### Phase 6: Activation & Guardian
 **AI Role**: Signal monitoring, drift detection  
-**Governance**: Humans interpret signals and decide on response  
+**Governance**: Humans classify every drift (error, superseded model, learning) and decide on response  
 **Temperature**: Low (0.3-0.5) for accurate monitoring  
 **Review**: Quarterly human review of all AI-flagged signals
 

docs/community-co-creation-protocol.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # Community Co-Creation Protocol
-**Version**: 1.0
-**Date**: 2026-03-27
+**Version**: 1.1
+**Date**: 2026-10-21
 **Status**: Normative (Phase 5 operational protocol)
 **Repo**: specula-method
 **Allineamento**: specula-framework Phase 5 schema (`phase5_cocreation.schema.json`)
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ Questo documento specifica *come* funziona la Phase 5 nel dettaglio:
 La Community Co-Creation è **obbligatoria** quando almeno una delle seguenti condizioni è vera:
 
 1. Il brand ha un'identità pubblica consolidata con una community riconoscibile (oltre 5.000 persone)
-2. I futuri speculativi generati in Phase 3 hanno impatto diretto su stili di vita, valori, o abitudini delle comunità
+2. I futuri speculativi generati in Phase 1 hanno impatto diretto su stili di vita, valori, o abitudini delle comunità
 3. La AI Constitution dichiara "community" come stakeholder primario
 4. Il `moral_entity` definito in Phase 2 è classificato come `caretaker` o `advocate`
 
@@ -153,6 +153,28 @@ La co-creazione Specula richiede che i futuri siano ancora **aperti** quando la
 
 ---
 
-## 8. Revisione di questo protocollo
+## 8. Chi fissa i valori, chi ne decide l'attuazione
+
+Il metodo assegna due decisioni diverse a due gruppi diversi.
+
+- **I valori** li fissa il Circolo di Sintesi, che li ricava dal Value Stress Test della Phase 2. La decisione richiede mandato, continuità e responsabilità sulle conseguenze.
+- **L'attuazione** la plasma la community: pratiche, linguaggi, rituali e servizi attraverso cui i valori diventano esperienza.
+
+Con questa divisione le persone a cui il brand si rivolge restano fuori dalla decisione sui valori. Il metodo lo dichiara e prevede tre contrappesi:
+
+1. Almeno un membro del Circolo rappresenta i destinatari del brand e ne porta la prospettiva nelle delibere.
+2. La dissociazione valoriale (sezione 4.1) obbliga a riaprire la Phase 2: la community può costringere il Circolo a rimettere alla prova i valori.
+3. Le voci minoritarie restano visibili nel Decision Log permanente (sezione 4.3).
+
+### 8.1 Regole di parola
+
+Nelle organizzazioni piccole chi decide siede spesso nello stesso gruppo che discute, e la sua presenza orienta gli interventi. In ogni sessione di co-creazione e in ogni delibera del Circolo valgono due regole:
+
+- i contributi si raccolgono per iscritto prima della discussione, anche in forma anonima;
+- chi ha il mandato decisionale parla per ultimo.
+
+---
+
+## 9. Revisione di questo protocollo
 
 Questo protocollo viene revisionato dopo ogni implementazione completa di Phase 5, con feedback dal facilitatore e dalla community stessa. L'obiettivo è costruire una libreria di casi che migliorino le domande maieutiche e i criteri di rappresentatività.

docs/ethical-framework.md

@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ Over time, this registry becomes part of the brand's identity—a record of cohe
 
 ### When It Activates
 
-The Ethical + Impact Gate (Phase 5) is applied after Confrontation & Discursive Prototyping, before Action Design. It covers every direction, prototype, or scenario being carried forward. This includes:
+The Ethical + Impact Gate closes Phase 3 (Future Prototyping): it is applied after the confrontation of prototypes with people, before Narrative Synthesis & Strategic Protocol (Phase 4). It covers every direction, prototype, or scenario being carried forward. This includes:
 - Speculative product/service concepts
 - AI agent behaviors and personas
 - Business model innovations

docs/method-evolution.md

@@ -14,6 +14,32 @@ This file tracks the evolution of the Specula Method and defines, step by step,
 
 ## Versions
 
+### v2.0 (October 2026)
+**Definition**: A six-phase strategic foresight branding method in which the Speculative Brand DNA is the output of a stress test against divergent futures, with one canonical sequence shared by the method, the Brand Operating System and the runtime schemas.
+
+**Core updates**:
+- **Sequence**: Framing moves to Phase 0; the Ethical DNA moves after Scenario Generation, into Phase 2. With the v1.1 order, the Value Stress Test checked values decided in advance.
+- **Phase 0**: threshold conditions recorded with observable evidence in a Threshold Sheet; written consensus on research question, time window and working rules.
+- **Scenario construction rule**: four generic futures, closed megatrends shared by all scenarios, one scenario built against the strongest declared value, horizon of 10–15 years.
+- **Value Stress Test**: run on the operational form of each value, judged by people who did not build the scenarios, with Causal Layered Analysis as a second method.
+- **Brand Archaeology**: traces from documents as well as stories, strategic interviews, counterexamples, a measure of change.
+- **Preferable future**: designed after the exploration, with backcasting per scenario; `preferred` is no longer a scenario type.
+- **Criteria as hypotheses**: each decision criterion carries an expected effect and a review date; the Decision Log records decisions against them.
+- **Guardian**: every drift is classified as error, superseded model, or learning.
+- **Governance**: who sets the values is declared, with counterweights and speaking rules; the Radar alerts on combinations of indicators.
+- **Time and compression** declared; metrics given calculation procedures.
+
+**What this enables**:
+- A Value Stress Test that can fail.
+- Decision criteria that change with experience while values stay stable.
+- One model to read across repositories, handbook, workshop kit and site.
+
+**What this does not change**:
+- The seven principles, the three core gate questions, the Refusal Register.
+- Confrontation, impact assessment and platforming from v1.1, now inside Phases 3, 5 and 6.
+
+---
+
 ### v1.0.1 (February 2026)
 **Definition**: Patch update of the open documentation profile, keeping the six-phase public structure and improving runtime alignment clarity.