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results: real conformal FP-control result on public MBPP+ data - #6

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feat/conformal-fp-result
Jun 20, 2026
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results: real conformal FP-control result on public MBPP+ data#6
stelioszach03 merged 1 commit into
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feat/conformal-fp-result

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First non-synthetic artifact in this repo — a real, reproducible result on public datasets (MBPP+ × wuschelschulz), nothing redacted.

Adds the conformal false-positive gate result for IPT as a clearly-labeled real result, separate from the synthetic evidence/ samples:

  • results/conformal_fp_control_mbpp.json — machine-readable metrics (behavioral / structural / conformal @ α).
  • reproducibility-notes.md — out-of-sample split-conformal setup, result table, public reproduce command.
  • README pointer, labeled real vs synthetic.

Headline (n=209, out-of-sample): the conformal gate gives a stated, distribution-free FP bound that holds (FP 2.44% ≤ 5%; 9.76% ≤ 10%) and recovers a detector-evading memorizer the structural rule misses (recall 0.03 → 0.94/1.0).

Lives outside evidence/, so the synthetic-marker validator is unaffected (still green). Deployed as POST /v1/verifier-audits/assurance-card.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

First non-synthetic artifact: a real, reproducible public-benchmark result for
the conformal false-positive gate added to IPT. Public datasets only (MBPP+ x
wuschelschulz) — nothing redacted, full numbers stated openly.

- results/conformal_fp_control_mbpp.json — machine-readable metrics (3 operating
  points: behavioral / structural / conformal @ alpha).
- reproducibility-notes.md — setup (out-of-sample split-conformal), the result
  table, and the public reproduce command.
- README — link the real result, clearly labeled vs the synthetic samples.

Headline: the conformal gate gives a stated, distribution-free FP bound that
holds out-of-sample (FP 2.44% <= 5%; 9.76% <= 10%) AND recovers a detector-
evading memorizer the structural rule misses (recall 0.03 -> 0.94/1.0).

Lives outside evidence/, so the synthetic-marker validator is unaffected (still
green). Deployed as POST /v1/verifier-audits/assurance-card.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@stelioszach03
stelioszach03 merged commit 21c502f into main Jun 20, 2026
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@stelioszach03
stelioszach03 deleted the feat/conformal-fp-result branch June 20, 2026 19:30
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