Skip to content

feat(superforcaster-polymarket-v5): add base_rate_required field to bind TYPE B base-rate anchor (issue #452) #453

New issue

Have a question about this project? Sign up for a free GitHub account to open an issue and contact its maintainers and the community.

Sign up for GitHub

By clicking “Sign up for GitHub”, you agree to our terms of service and privacy statement. We’ll occasionally send you account related emails.

Already on GitHub? Sign in to your account

Draft
valory-coding-agent wants to merge 2 commits into
base: main
Choose a base branch
from
Draft

feat(superforcaster-polymarket-v5): add base_rate_required field to bind TYPE B base-rate anchor (issue #452) #453

Show file tree
Hide file tree
Changes from all commits
Commits
Show all changes
2 commits
Select commit Hold shift + click to select a range
56670fe
feat(superforcaster-polymarket-v5): add base_rate_required field to b…
Aug 26, 2026
75bfd4a
fix(lint): apply black formatting to superforcaster-polymarket-v5
Aug 26, 2026
File filter

Filter by extension

Filter by extension
Conversations
Failed to load comments.
Loading
Jump to
Jump to file
Failed to load files.
Loading
Diff view
Diff view
11 changes: 11 additions & 0 deletions benchmark/tools.py
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -139,6 +139,17 @@ class ToolSpec:
),
family="superforcaster",
),
# valory/superforcaster_polymarket_v5 -- adds base_rate_required boolean
# commitment field to bind TYPE B base-rate fallback at the prediction-LLM-call
# stage; tightens TYPE A definition to exclude outlet-name keyword matches and
# out-of-window posts (issue #452).
"superforcaster-polymarket-v5": ToolSpec(
module=(
"packages.valory.customs.superforcaster_polymarket_v5"
".superforcaster_polymarket_v5"
),
family="superforcaster",
),
# napthaai/prediction_request_reasoning_v1
"prediction-request-reasoning-v1": ToolSpec(
module="packages.napthaai.customs.prediction_request_reasoning_v1.prediction_request_reasoning_v1",
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion benchmark/tournament_tools.json
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -3,5 +3,5 @@
"predict-base": "bafybeiclpkn4sqvri7k5aiklt5fm6hnt3tgo4qxtrkzxe4fwzfs2plgbk4",
"predict-fine-tuned": "bafybeiclpkn4sqvri7k5aiklt5fm6hnt3tgo4qxtrkzxe4fwzfs2plgbk4",
"predict-fine-tuned-calibrated": "bafybeiclpkn4sqvri7k5aiklt5fm6hnt3tgo4qxtrkzxe4fwzfs2plgbk4",
"superforcaster-polymarket-v4": "bafybeieuzna7fsv4iwz7gvqpvkurfdskd2tul6b4asjg4dcsp4oieic6ti"
"superforcaster-polymarket-v5": "bafybeics2og73yiydgzdtplwfsvvgucom4ozaqdetbxpzqgan6ka2kewny"
}
1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions packages/packages.json
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -27,6 +27,7 @@
"custom/valory/finetuned_prediction/0.1.0": "bafybeiclpkn4sqvri7k5aiklt5fm6hnt3tgo4qxtrkzxe4fwzfs2plgbk4",
"custom/valory/propose_question/0.1.0": "bafybeif2dmjftef7pnixwnutn42tdaxbbr77anl5ixsv6kwsxnk7sm6fni",
"custom/valory/superforcaster_polymarket_v4/0.1.0": "bafybeieuzna7fsv4iwz7gvqpvkurfdskd2tul6b4asjg4dcsp4oieic6ti",
"custom/valory/superforcaster_polymarket_v5/0.1.0": "bafybeics2og73yiydgzdtplwfsvvgucom4ozaqdetbxpzqgan6ka2kewny",
"agent/valory/mech_predict/0.1.0": "bafybeiceogng3gnfdg3zqarxfizz527lqyalqdpw5vgjchnglsifakobte",
"service/valory/mech_predict/0.1.0": "bafybeie5qdauibtdlq5qflkqlwnqjmgtzw5yqxta6xwj2z6ehvdh3q2wvm"
},
Expand Down
20 changes: 20 additions & 0 deletions packages/valory/customs/superforcaster_polymarket_v5/__init__.py
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
# ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
#
# Copyright 2023-2026 Valory AG
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.
#
# ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"""This module contains the Superforcaster tool."""
32 changes: 32 additions & 0 deletions packages/valory/customs/superforcaster_polymarket_v5/component.yaml
View file
Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
name: superforcaster_polymarket_v5
author: valory
version: 0.1.0
type: custom
description: A tool for making binary predictions on markets. v5 adds a base_rate_required
boolean commitment field to bind TYPE B base-rate fallback at the prediction-LLM-call
stage, and tightens the TYPE A definition to exclude outlet-name keyword matches
and out-of-window historical posts; targets systematic overconfident-YES on Polymarket
(issue
license: Apache-2.0
aea_version: '>=1.0.0, <2.0.0'
fingerprint:
__init__.py: bafybeidr6ok7hgnywgtlggdajgklohlpaxnxmvpo2wn5fayq7fhzrr2sli
superforcaster_polymarket_v5.py: bafybeidp2depvwum2qec3bllzzqjqmo67lxcqzaknlve3i3gubcm4pnzru
tests/__init__.py: bafybeich3flegc3t2declfjn3khnot44vh35i7cyw2mvw6oaahkb6kj66m
tests/test_superforcaster_polymarket_v5.py: bafybeie3jka65jb66gxs2k7ano7mqznp7ypemh3fit6rrdededo3qlyzpe
fingerprint_ignore_patterns: []
entry_point: superforcaster_polymarket_v5.py
callable: run
params:
default_model: gpt-4.1-2025-04-14
dependencies:
openai:
version: ==1.93.0
httpx:
version: ==0.25.2
tiktoken:
version: ==0.12.0
pydantic:
version: '>=2.0.0,<3.0.0'
requests:
version: ==2.32.5
Loading
Loading