international-airpassengers-project

https://up2u2b11.github.io/international-airpassengers-project/

Capstone for the SDAIA Time Series course: the full pipeline — exploration, decomposition, benchmark floor, model through the framework (AutoGluon), cross-validation, report — on the Box & Jenkins AirPassengers series (1949-1960).

Start

1. Fork this repo.
2. Open project.ipynb in Colab and run cell 1 — it installs everything (the project's coursekit; AutoGluon is installed later, in the notebook, when section 3 is reached).
3. Read brief.md, do the work in the notebook, write the report as report.md, commit and push to your fork, and submit the fork's URL.

Submission

Fork → solve → commit → push — the notebook and the report must live on GitHub, not just in a runtime. Deadline: 00:00, Tuesday 8 September 2026.

The write-up

• Live: up2u2b11.github.io/international-airpassengers-project — published by GitHub Pages from the gh-pages branch. To republish after a change on main: git push -f origin main:gh-pages.
• index.html — a one-page walkthrough of the finished analysis: the shape, the floor, the harness verdict over eight rolling origins, where each model fails cell by cell, and the interval honesty. Every number on it is recomputed by site/build_page.py at build time, so the page cannot drift from the notebook. Rebuild with python3 site/build_page.py.

Files

• project.ipynb — the starter notebook; the graded deliverable
• brief.md — the project brief
• rubric.md — how it is graded (100 + extra credit)
• coursekit/ — shared plotting + scoring helpers (the course's harness)