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Bitcoin Difficulty Estimate

This is a small program to extract Bitcoin block headers from a bitcoin node running locally (ip: 127.0.0.1 port 8333) and compute a history and real time estimate of Bitcoin difficulty.

The estimation is documented here: https://medium.com/@tamas.blummer/estimating-next-bitcoin-mining-difficulty-3ea85e7a8adb

The output on stdout is a csv file with following field:

  • block height
  • block time point (unix timestamp)
  • network difficulty - this changes only at every 2016th block
  • next difficulty estimate - this changes with every block and converges at low volatility to network difficulty

Build instructions

Need:

Build:

  • cargo build --release

Run:

target/release/bitcoin-diffest > difftest.txt

It should take ca 10 minutes if built as above for release running on an Intel i7 processor, at block height of 508829.

I checked in a run result for those curious how it looks like before running it with real time data.

Above example result visualized for last blocks:

difficulty chart

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Compute a history and real time estimate of next Bitcoin difficulty

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