D2C Profitability Model — Excel (fully formula-driven)

A 7-sheet financial model for a direct-to-consumer denim brand. Zero hardcoded outputs — every number traces back to 12 editable input drivers. Built from real operating experience running a D2C apparel brand.

Sheets

Sheet	What it does
Dashboard	KPI summary (FY revenue, EBITDA, TACOS, break-even, margin of safety), live health flag, revenue/EBITDA chart
Inputs	12 yellow editable drivers: ASP, units, COGS, return rate, reverse-logistics cost, ad spend, CAC, shipping, gateway fee, packaging, overheads, growth
P&L	12-month projection with named ranges, compounding unit growth, gross margin / EBITDA margin / TACOS rows, conditional formatting (red EBITDA < 0, amber TACOS > 15%)
Scenarios	Base / Bull / Bear toggled by one cell via CHOOSE(); active scenario FY EBITDA computed with SUMPRODUCT geometric-growth array
Sensitivity	2-way EBITDA grid: price (₹1,599–2,199) × units (500–1,250) with red-to-green color scale
BreakEven	Contribution per unit net of returns/variable costs, break-even units & revenue, margin of safety, profit-vs-units chart
MonteCarlo	500 randomized trials (NORMINV(RAND()) on units & returns, uniform discount on ASP) → mean, median, P10/P90, P(loss). Press F9 to re-simulate

Modeling conventions (industry standard)

• Blue text = inputs · Black = formulas · Green = cross-sheet links · Yellow fill = editable assumptions
• Negative numbers in parentheses; zeros shown as "-"
• All assumptions in dedicated cells — no constants buried in formulas
• Verified: 0 formula errors across 2,803 formulas

Sample output (base case)

FY Net Revenue ₹2.26 Cr · EBITDA margin 33.6% · TACOS 12.7% · Break-even 391 units/mo · Margin of safety 54% · Health flag: HEALTHY

How to rebuild the workbook

pip install -r requirements.txt
python build_model.py

This regenerates D2C_Profitability_Model.xlsx from code (openpyxl).

Skills demonstrated

Driver-based financial modeling · scenario analysis (CHOOSE) · 2-way sensitivity · break-even & contribution analysis · Monte Carlo simulation in native Excel · named ranges · conditional formatting · unit economics (CAC, TACOS, ROAS thinking)

Author

Sarthak Srivastava — Data / Business Analytics portfolio project