Post-AGI Planning

A living, data-driven civilization forecast and long-form guide to the post-AGI transition. The REHOBOAM timeline spans 2026–2040 across six domains and is published at peterxing.com.

Every individual prediction must have exactly one reviewed direct X evidence card. The matcher prefers a defensible post/repost observed in @peterxing's activity, then retains a reviewed authoritative external post labeled as direct, scenario, or leading-indicator evidence. Source freshness is tracked separately from evergreen evidence age. refresh-signals.js exits nonzero and leaves signals.json unchanged unless direct coverage is complete and signals.search is empty.

How it works

index.html ──fetch──> predictions.json   (forecast source of truth)
           └─fetch──> signals.json       (generated X matches + Reality Signals)
                              ^
                              |
                  refresh-signals.js ──> x-client.js / live public RSS

• predictions.json contains the probabilistic 2026–2040 forecast.
• validate-predictions.js enforces schema plus portfolio coherence: exact/near duplicates, repeated valuation/science/AI-R&D endpoints, conventional career milestones after full automation, and unlabelled top-expert milestones after an earlier ungoverned ASI branch all fail publication. Similar later events must advance a threshold, scope, deployment stage, or branch.
• refresh-signals.js expands the forecast into one matcher per event. Literal scoring is supplemented by a bounded concept ontology for semantically equivalent evidence (such as tape-out/semiconductors, physicians/health, FSD/robotics, and UHI/dividends). Claim-specific facet guards remain mandatory for literal, semantic, hybrid, and family matches. Assignment maximizes unique reviewed posts first, then permits reuse only inside a declared compatible evidence family or reviewed threshold/scenario series. There is no generic reuse cap.
• evidence-families.js declares the only families within which threshold-series reuse is compatible. Cross-family reuse fails publication.
• evidence-approvals.json is the public-safe reviewed prediction/post-pair ledger. New automatic candidates from Peter's activity cannot publish until their specific pair is manually approved.
• external-evidence.js is the reviewed authoritative-source ledger. It stores only public-safe status metadata, source-quality classification, scenario/leading-indicator labels, rationale, and compatible reuse groups.
• verify-signal-matcher.js runs positive and negative regression fixtures for the concept matcher, including J-space vs off-world space, building permits vs compute permits, market cap vs compute caps, political vs electrical power, and quantitative labor thresholds.
• signals.json is written only at complete direct-only coverage. signals-debug.json remains local and records source freshness, historical span, missing direct IDs, reviewed mappings, guard rejections, and reuse audits without storing the raw activity corpus.
• author.json drives the daily-refreshed About the Author section.

Data-source safety

The source order is:

1. Authenticated X API v2.
2. Live read-only public RSS profile.
3. Live legacy syndication, only when its newest item is no more than 30 days old.
4. A fresh local API/RSS snapshot no older than 36 hours.

Historical matching additionally uses private X API full-archive/topic-query results and previously observed public project archives. A fresh source is still mandatory before publication.

Raw activity and credentials stay outside the repository.

Local use

npm install
npm run validate
npm run refresh
npm run verify:matcher
npm run serve

In a second terminal:

npm run verify
npm run verify:predictions
npm run verify:reality
npm run verify:author
npm run verify:ui
npm run verify:coverage
npm run verify:external

X_SKIP_API=1 node refresh-signals.js exercises the live public-feed fallback. X_SKIP_LIVE=1 node refresh-signals.js performs deterministic matching from fresh local caches. X_HISTORY_BACKFILL=1 node refresh-signals.js exhausts supported full-archive pagination and merges public project archives into the private history. It still publishes only at reviewed N/N coverage.

Deploy

powershell -ExecutionPolicy Bypass -File .\deploy.ps1

There is no build step. Vercel serves index.html and the JSON sidecars as static files.

Security

• Credentials are loaded from C:\Users\peterxing\pap-secrets\.env and are never served or committed.
• Raw caches, debug output, logs, .vercel, and node_modules are excluded from GitHub.
• server.js is default-deny and serves only the site, public JSON sidecars, and static assets.

See X-API-SETUP.md for X authentication and REVISE-PREDICTIONS.md for forecast revision rules.