heyong4725 · Sep 14, 2026 · Sep 14, 2026 · Sep 14, 2026 · Sep 14, 2026
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -14,6 +14,11 @@ measurement that people most often get wrong, and **Appendix C** is a graded
 set of exercises and hackathon tracks — several of which are genuinely open
 problems (**Appendix D** lists them with issue numbers).
 
+**Visiting research group?** Read
+**[`docs/lab-briefing-2026-09.md`](docs/lab-briefing-2026-09.md)** first: two
+pages on what has been measured, what has not and why, and where a graduate
+student can contribute this semester.
+
 <!-- claim:typed-composition/readme -->
 *AISLE is an **environment** in the reinforcement-learning sense — a simulated
 world with tasks, dynamics, and a frozen scorer that agents act in — and the
@@ -83,9 +88,14 @@ the whole measured record is
 **This table is the single current status page** (issue #142). Other overview
 pages link here; protocol and evidence pages may retain dated summaries for
 context, but must identify their snapshot and defer to this table on conflict.
-Status as of **2026-08-28**, commit `93de5e0`. Each row states the verdict its
-committed evidence supports, with that evidence's own qualifications — a
-hypothesis with no admissible data says so rather than reading as progress.
+Status as of **2026-09-14**, commit `fa339ee`. The measured record below is
+the **2026-08-28** record (commit `93de5e0`): no hypothesis or ablation has
+been measured since. What changed in between — the pre-registration program,
+the pilot-first order, and the still-pending #347 pilot — is in
+[Since 2026-08-28](#since-2026-08-28-the-pre-registration-program-and-the-pilot)
+at the end of this section. Each row states the verdict its committed evidence
+supports, with that evidence's own qualifications — a hypothesis with no
+admissible data says so rather than reading as progress.
 
 <!-- claim:development-ledger/readme -->
 **SUPPORTED structural status, not a confirmatory result:** this is the dated
@@ -187,6 +197,25 @@ Signed review notes: [`analysis/reports/agent_pr_review_notes.md`](analysis/repo
 The first pass could only review **2 of 5** skills, which any claim about
 human-in-the-loop governance of agent-authored robot code has to carry.
 
+### Since 2026-08-28: the pre-registration program and the pilot
+
+Between the snapshot above and 2026-09-14 the repository gained 235
+commits and **no new measured hypothesis or ablation result**. Nearly all of
+that work is the machinery that would make the headline result defensible
+when it runs. Stated as such:
+
+| Item | State on 2026-09-14 |
+|---|---|
+| Pre-registration program, SPEC 400–540 | Tooling implemented (`harness freeze/stats/exposure/semantic/threat/fault/monolith/perception/hardware`, each with fixtures and self-tests). All fifteen specs are **PROPOSED, human-review gated**; none authorizes confirmatory collection. Nine are **parked** under ADR-66 (430, 450, 460, 470, 480, 510, 520, 530, 540) |
+| Typed-vs-monolithic causal study (#347, SPEC 500) | **Unrun.** Confirmatory registration at v22 with all 7 integrity gates pending, two of them external reviews (#483 statistics, CON-14). Pilot v1 (2026-09-12) collected **zero sessions**: the executor admitted only the T1 oracle mode, both paired T1 surfaces put oracle state on the policy path, and the task band named no eligible stratum. A merged stack (#580–#588) bound a T1-L2 realistic pair as the instrument set; **pilot v8** (2026-09-13) is registered with collection pending on the session-bound confinement attestation (#589–#591). The task-band calibration (v13) records **BND-7 eligibility failed** for that candidate, 22 of 22 strata; any pilot on it carries that as a named limitation (`analysis/reports/cse_pilot_v1.md`, `analysis/freeze/cse-causal-study-pilot-v8/`) |
+| Execution order and moratorium (ADR-66, accepted 2026-09-11) | Pilot-first: run #347's pilot, then H6, before any new spec, platform, or hypothesis; one measured result every two weeks or infrastructure PRs stop. CON-9 amended the same week: documentation-only commits run format, lint, and unit only. The renumbering note: the pilot-first decision is **ADR-66**; ADR-65 is the frontend-conformance ADR (#568) |
+| Instrument ablations and pilots (synthetic or fixture; **not treatment effects**) | Semantic authorization (SPEC 480): held-plan replay, false-allow risk difference sensor_shield − no_shield **−0.93** (95% −0.97 to −0.82), n=60, same author for corpus and authorizer. Safety exposure (SPEC 470): guard-on **0/39** vs observe-only **32/39** at-risk traces, fake driver, no physics. Threat model (SPEC 460): **18/18** catalogued attacks blocked at the expected layer, one process; no boundary claim beyond that fixture. Fault bank (SPEC 450): v2 calibration gives every family ≥1 effective instance, leakage probe balanced accuracy 0.37 (p=0.80), bank **not sealed**. Perception audit (SPEC 490), second audit with the hardened auditor (2026-09-13, registered as calibration v11): **not eligible, 22 of 22 strata fail** on 320 scored evaluation frames; overhead stratum 214/320 (0.67), ibuprofen refuses 68 of 80, **0 wrong identity**, no threshold changed (`analysis/perception-audit/records/bnd-perception-corpus-03/`). Each README in `analysis/` states its own evidence kind |
+| M3 environment ladder, v2 | **Spearman 0.746** ranking agreement between the kinematic surrogate and Genesis over 16 graphs × 8 seeds on a spread population (0.76 excluding the contact-geometry set); supersedes the "undecidable" v0 row above. UNATTESTED dev measurement, self-authored population (`analysis/m3/v2/`) |
+| Local-model capability floor (qwen3:30b) | **0/5** schema-valid graphs, as pre-registered; two same-seed sessions bit-identical. UNATTESTED, n=5 (`analysis/local-arm/`) |
+| Halt contract for motion nodes | ADR-64 (accepted): a halt ends the episode, no in-episode resume. The declared halt contract itself is #562, **parked** until SPEC 460 ratifies or Phase 6 opens |
+| Related systems reviewed | PhyAgentOS (arXiv 2607.16636) and TypeGo (arXiv 2607.05482) assessed 2026-09-10/11; positioning in the paper's §7. PhyAgentOS runs on dora with the graph hidden behind an HTTP tool API — a shipped instance of this repository's monolithic control arm, which is the strongest external reason to run #347 |
+| Open owner-side gates | External reviews not yet arranged: statistical (#483), terminology (#484), independent reproduction (#485), external benchmark user (#486). No in-house work can satisfy these |
+
 ## Quickstart
 
 Use macOS arm64 or Linux CPU, Python >= 3.11, Git, rustup and
@@ -227,20 +256,29 @@ graphs/            expert + eval dataflows (T0..T4 desk, S1 retail,
 src/aisle/         scenes, bridge, verifier, reset, harness, mobility, nodes
                    (incl. world_model_env — the env-ladder surrogate — and
                    so101_driver — the Phase-6 hardware bridge, loopback-tested)
-harness CLIs       `uv run harness {validate,rollout,traces,report,skill,swap,probe}`
+harness CLIs       `uv run harness {validate,rollout,traces,report,skill,swap,
+                   probe,fleet,freeze,stats,exposure,semantic,threat,fault,
+                   monolith,perception,hardware}` (the last nine are the
+                   SPEC 400–540 pre-registration instruments)
 tools/             CI, trace_check, env_hash, campaign runners
-                   (h1..h4, h6, a3..a5, m3_ranking, judge_bench, vlm_judge,
-                   finetune_smolvla, hw_calibration, spikes/)
+                   (h1..h4, h6, a3..a5, matched_campaign, pilot_*, m3_ranking,
+                   judge_bench, vlm_judge, finetune_smolvla, hw_calibration,
+                   spikes/)
 tests/             unit / sim / graph markers; every MUST cited by a test
 analysis/          committed experiment findings: hypotheses (h1..h4, h6),
                    ablations (a1..a6), tiers (t2, t2_breakthrough, t3, t4,
-                   t4_inc2), m1, m3, ver-vlm, transit_collisions,
+                   t4_inc2), m1, m3, ver-vlm, local-arm, transit_collisions,
                    ver6-fidelity, s1-determinism, postmortems, transcripts,
-                   reports/
+                   reports/; the pre-registration record: freeze/ (content-
+                   addressed registrations), statistics, treatment-integrity,
+                   monolithic-control, fault-bank, threat-model,
+                   safety-exposure, semantic-authorization, perception-audit,
+                   instrument-audit, claim-evidence
 skills/            the registered library (5): s1-driver-v2, s3-driver-v1,
                    ik-transfer-v2, t2-scan-pose, t2-scan-tsm
-docs/              guides, design doc, contributor wiki, paper/ (v1.0),
-                   decisions/ (ADRs), generated/project-inventory.md
+docs/              guides, design doc, contributor wiki, lab briefing
+                   (lab-briefing-2026-09.md), paper/ (v1.0), decisions/
+                   (ADRs), generated/project-inventory.md
 runs/              gitignored: traces, videos, run manifests
 ```
 

diff --git a/docs/AISLE-technical-report.md b/docs/AISLE-technical-report.md
@@ -8,7 +8,12 @@ Measured results cite the [README status table](../README.md#status), which is
 canonical; the phase record is
 [`analysis/reports/phase2_phase3_report.md`](../analysis/reports/phase2_phase3_report.md).
 Forward-looking sections are labelled as such and describe committed design
-direction, not shipped capability.*
+direction, not shipped capability. Section 9 remains the historical 2026-08-16
+measured snapshot; later measurements, including H6, Phase 5, and M3 v2, live
+in the canonical README. The post-2026-08-28 pre-registration program (SPEC
+400–540), pilot-first execution order (ADR-66), and still-pending #347 pilot
+are summarized in the README's "Since 2026-08-28" block and in Appendix D
+below, which was refreshed on 2026-09-14.*
 
 <!-- claim:publication-purpose/technical-report -->
 **Publication purpose.** This broad technical report preserves the complete
@@ -2842,11 +2847,26 @@ understood.
 | [#268](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/268) | **No determinism layer for inference** | The staleness floor couples sim time to wall time, so a loaded host can change the trajectory with every seed identical | §10.11 |
 | [#269](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/269) | **"Safe Learning" is undefined** in the project's own naming gloss | Students reasonably expect a training loop and find none | §3.5 |
 
-Two further threads are open and owner-facing rather than contributor-facing:
-the eval's **seed set and episode count remain candidate-chosen** (the same
-self-grading shape ADR-37 closed, one field over), and **T2/T3 remain unsolved**
-at session budgets, which is the scientific prerequisite for a meaningful
-accumulation result.
+Refreshed 2026-09-14. All six gaps above have since closed (#264 and #265
+through ADR-41 and ADR-40; #267 and #268 on 2026-08-17). The current register:
+
+| # | Gap | Why it matters | Where |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| [#347](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/347) | The **typed-vs-monolithic causal study is unrun**; pilot v8 is registered with collection pending on the session-bound confinement attestation (#589–#591) | It is the headline claim; every 4xx spec exists to make its result defensible | README status, ADR-66 |
+| [#346](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/346) | **No perception-eligible task stratum**: the task-band calibration (v13) records BND-7 failed for the only candidate, 22 of 22 strata | Without an eligible non-oracle task, neither the pilot nor the confirmatory study has an instrument | SPEC 490 |
+| [#519](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/519) | Matched-arm session admission and common evidence (MON-8/MON-12) not complete | Gate on every scored session in both arms | SPEC 420/440 |
+| [#483](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/483)–[#486](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/486) | **External reviews not arranged**: statistical (STA-12), terminology (CLM-12), independent reproduction (RPR-10/11), external benchmark user (BMK-21) | Confirmatory and release gates that no in-house work can satisfy | SPEC 400/410/530/540 |
+| [#562](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/562) | No declared **halt contract** for motion nodes (bound, semantics, receipt); ADR-64 already makes a halt terminal | Required by SPEC 460/480/520 as an outcome, defined nowhere; parked until SPEC 460 ratifies or Phase 6 opens | SPEC 520 supplement |
+| [#566](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/566) | Closed idea-tree entries persist but nothing **retrieves a refuted idea** at the moment of choosing | The failure-side half of "does prior work compound"; parked until an H3 rerun | ADR-41, HAR-7 |
+| [#356](https://github.com/heyong4725/aisle/issues/356) | **Hardware** entry gates (M1, judge fidelity) are GPU-gated; SO-101 driver is loopback-tested only | Every hardware claim stays `hardware_pending` | SPEC 520 |
+
+Two threads remain owner-facing rather than contributor-facing: the eval's
+**seed set and episode count remain candidate-chosen** (the same self-grading
+shape ADR-37 closed, one field over), and **T2/T3 remain unsolved** at session
+budgets, which is the scientific prerequisite for a meaningful accumulation
+result. Nine specs (430, 450, 460, 470, 480, 510, 520, 530, 540) are parked
+under ADR-66 until #347 and H6 report; reading them is welcome, extending them
+is not.
 
 ---
 

diff --git a/docs/claim-evidence.yaml b/docs/claim-evidence.yaml
@@ -18,11 +18,15 @@ overview_documents:
     canonical_link: ../README.md#status
   - path: docs/research-program.md
     role: snapshot
-    snapshot_date: "2026-08-28"
+    snapshot_date: "2026-09-14"
     canonical_link: ../README.md#status
   - path: docs/experiments.md
     role: snapshot
-    snapshot_date: "2026-08-28"
+    snapshot_date: "2026-09-14"
+    canonical_link: ../README.md#status
+  - path: docs/lab-briefing-2026-09.md
+    role: snapshot
+    snapshot_date: "2026-09-14"
     canonical_link: ../README.md#status
   - path: docs/paper/aisle-paper.md
     role: snapshot

diff --git a/docs/contributor-wiki.md b/docs/contributor-wiki.md
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 # AISLE contributor wiki
 
-> DeepWiki-style repository guide for contributors. Snapshot: 2026-08-10.
+> DeepWiki-style repository guide for contributors. Snapshot: 2026-08-10; maturity map refreshed 2026-09-14.
 > This page describes the implementation in this tree; dated research results
 > remain tied to the commits recorded in their evidence.
 
@@ -161,6 +161,9 @@ This table is more useful than a single “done/not done” label.
 | Linux CUDA simulation | Explicit optional path | Selected with mutually exclusive `--extra cuda` and attested by rollout. |
 | Powder bench family | Specified/gated | Only the spike tooling and draft decision record exist today. |
 | Real hardware | Future/stretch | Topic contract is designed to make drivers swappable, but hardware proof is pending. |
+| Pre-registration program (SPEC 400–540) | Implemented as tooling; specs PROPOSED | `harness freeze/stats/exposure/semantic/threat/fault/monolith/perception` exist with fixtures; every spec is human-review gated; nine are parked under ADR-66. |
+| Typed-vs-monolithic causal study (#347) | Registered, unrun | Twenty-two confirmatory registrations, all gates pending; pilot v8 registered with collection pending; the only task-band candidate fails BND-7 eligibility. |
+| Pilot evidence tier (ADR-66) | Accepted 2026-09-11 | Pilots run unscored under their own registration; never enter a confirmatory estimate; one measured result every two weeks or infrastructure stops. |
 
 ## 4. Architecture
 

diff --git a/docs/experiments.md b/docs/experiments.md
@@ -1,7 +1,10 @@
 # Experiments: hypotheses, status, and where results live
 
-<!-- status-snapshot:2026-08-28 canonical:../README.md#status -->
-Status as of 2026-08-28 (commit `93de5e0`). **Phase 2 and Phase 3 are both
+<!-- status-snapshot:2026-09-14 canonical:../README.md#status -->
+Status as of 2026-09-14 (commit `fa339ee`). The measured record below is the
+2026-08-28 record: no hypothesis or ablation has been measured since. What
+changed is the pre-registration program and the pilot-first order — see the
+README's "Since 2026-08-28" block and [`next-phases.md`](next-phases.md). **Phase 2 and Phase 3 are both
 closed** — see [`../analysis/reports/phase2_phase3_report.md`](../analysis/reports/phase2_phase3_report.md)
 for the DoD-by-DoD record. Design:
 `Project_AISLE_Experiment_Design.md` §6 (hypotheses/metrics/ablations)

diff --git a/docs/glossary.md b/docs/glossary.md
@@ -10,6 +10,41 @@ also nods to the pharmacy aisle of the first task family. Earlier expansions —
 outgrown as the scope widened; the lineage is recorded in
 [`Project_AISLE_Experiment_Design.md`](Project_AISLE_Experiment_Design.md).
 
+### Pre-registration and pilot vocabulary (September 2026)
+
+**Freeze registry** — `analysis/freeze/<campaign>-v<N>/`: a content-addressed
+pre-registration (declaration + manifest of SHA-256s for every named artifact,
+analysis script, and gate record, plus a salted seed commitment). Built by
+`harness freeze build`; drift against an existing manifest is a refusal, so a
+changed artifact means a new version that names the old one in `superseded`.
+Families to date: `cse-causal-study` (SPEC 500), `bnd-task-band-calibration`
+(SPEC 490), `flt-bank-calibration` (SPEC 450), `sfe-held-command-ablation`
+(SPEC 470), `sem-held-plan-adversarial` (SPEC 480), `fel-fault-evidence-study`
+(SPEC 510), and `cse-causal-study-pilot`.
+
+**Pilot registration (ADR-66)** — a freeze registration with `purpose: pilot`,
+its own campaign id and seeds, whose sessions run through the ordinary
+engineering executor path (retained, unscored) and whose records may calibrate
+the CSE-8 power inputs but never enter a confirmatory estimate (STA-3). A pilot
+does not wait on the external-review gates; machine gates are recorded,
+including failures, as named limitations.
+
+**Execution order and spec moratorium (ADR-66, accepted 2026-09-11)** — run the
+#347 pilot, then H6, before any new spec, platform, or hypothesis; parked specs
+stay PROPOSED and untouched until those report; one measured result every two
+weeks or infrastructure PRs stop. CON-9 was amended the same week so
+documentation-only commits run format, lint, and unit only.
+
+**Requirement-ID prefixes for the 4xx/5xx specs** — STA (400 statistics),
+CLM (410 claim evidence), TRT (420 treatment integrity), AUD (430 instrument
+audit), MON (440 monolithic control), FLT (450 sealed fault bank), THR (460
+actuation threat model), SFE (470 safety exposure), SEM (480 semantic
+authorization), BND (490 non-oracle task band), CSE (500 causal study), FEL
+(510 fault-evidence localization), HWP (520 SO-101 hardware gate), RPR (530
+reproduction archive), BMK (540 public benchmark). All fifteen are PROPOSED and
+human-review gated; `tools/trace_check.py` requires every MUST to have a citing
+test or an explicit, reviewable waiver, while strict gates ignore waivers.
+
 ### "Learning", defined (issue #269)
 
 The word misleads newcomers, so it is worth stating exactly. **There is no