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macanderson merged 1 commit into from
Aug 11, 2026
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docs(deck): replace generic TAM slide with a sourced “why now” convergence thesis #2878

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22 changes: 22 additions & 0 deletions website/public/presentations/CHANGELOG.md
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -311,3 +311,25 @@ scripting failure shows the true number rather than a zero.
| 6 · ask-slide targets | **open — needs founder ratification**, and labelled as plan on-slide |
| 7 · oracle-coverage percentage | still deliberately unnumbered; A2 says so on-slide |
| 8 · ~90% cost reduction | **claim removed** |

---

# Revision 4 — 2026-08-11, the “why now” investment thesis

The generic market-size slide was the weakest page in the core narrative: it
proved that AI is large, but not that Oxagen's window is open **now**. It has
been replaced with a convergence slide built around three sourced forces:

- the best open model's gap to the best closed model compressed from 8.04% to
1.70% in one year;
- open frontier-class inference launched at roughly 1/27th of o1's API price;
- enterprise AI spend grew from $11.5B to $37B, with AI coding already a $4B
wedge.

The new diagram makes the investment thesis visual: capability rising, cost
falling, and demand rising converge on verified private AI infrastructure. It
ends with the strategic claim the prior TAM chart never earned: **the labs won
the model race; the control layer is still unclaimed.** No new forecast or
unsourced company metric was introduced. The former third-party 2030 agents
market projection was removed because it added less conviction than the three
observable curves.
66 changes: 37 additions & 29 deletions website/public/presentations/investor-deck.html
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Expand Up @@ -882,40 +882,48 @@ <h2 class="rise" style="--d:1">Software first &mdash; then <em>every vertical wi
</div>
</section>

<!-- 13 · market -->
<section class="slide" aria-label="the market">
<!-- 13 · why now -->
<section class="slide" aria-label="why now: capability, cost, and enterprise control are converging">
<div class="frame">
<p class="overline rise">the market</p>
<h2 class="rise" style="--d:1">A new line item, <em>growing fast.</em></h2>
<div class="body cols c-6-4">
<svg class="dia rise" style="--d:2" viewBox="0 0 780 332" role="img" aria-label="column chart: enterprise AI spend grew from 11.5 billion dollars in 2024 to 37 billion in 2025, of which about 4 billion is AI coding; the AI agents market is projected at about 50 billion by 2030">
<line class="ln" x1="0" y1="266" x2="780" y2="266" stroke-width="1"/>
<rect x="40" y="200" width="120" height="66" rx="4" fill="#232327"/>
<text class="lbl" x="100" y="190" text-anchor="middle">$11.5B</text>
<text class="sm" x="100" y="286" text-anchor="middle">2024</text>
<rect x="230" y="52" width="120" height="214" rx="4" fill="#232327"/>
<rect x="230" y="243" width="120" height="23" rx="4" fill="#FFB000"/>
<text class="lbl gd" x="290" y="42" text-anchor="middle">$37B</text>
<text class="sm" x="290" y="286" text-anchor="middle">2025</text>
<path class="lng" d="M248 254 V308" stroke-width="1" stroke-dasharray="3 3"/>
<text class="sm gd" x="290" y="322" text-anchor="middle">$4B of it is AI coding &mdash; our wedge</text>
<rect x="420" y="98" width="120" height="168" rx="4" fill="none" stroke="#A37200" stroke-dasharray="6 5"/>
<text class="lbl" x="480" y="88" text-anchor="middle">~$50B</text>
<text class="sm" x="480" y="286" text-anchor="middle">2030 · projected</text>
<text class="sm" x="566" y="164">AI agents market,</text>
<text class="sm" x="566" y="182">growing ~46% a year</text>
<text class="sm" x="0" y="14">enterprise AI spend, and the agents market it is becoming</text>
<p class="overline rise">why now</p>
<h2 class="rise" style="--d:1">Three curves crossed. <em>A category opened.</em></h2>
<p class="lead rise" style="--d:2">Open models became capable enough, inference became cheap enough, and enterprise AI spend became large enough. Verification is the missing control layer that turns those forces into owned infrastructure.</p>
<div class="body cols c-7-5">
<svg class="dia rise" style="--d:3" viewBox="0 0 820 390" role="img" aria-label="three forces converge on a market window: open-model capability, falling inference cost, and enterprise demand">
<defs>
<marker id="ar-now" viewBox="0 0 10 10" refX="9" refY="5" markerWidth="7" markerHeight="7" orient="auto"><path d="M0 0 L10 5 L0 10 z" fill="#FFB000"/></marker>
</defs>
<text class="sm" x="12" y="26">THE CONVERGENCE</text>
<rect class="box" x="12" y="52" width="258" height="82" rx="12"/>
<text class="lbl gd" x="34" y="82">CAPABILITY ↑</text>
<text class="sm" x="34" y="106">open / closed gap:</text>
<text class="lbl" x="34" y="126">8.04% → 1.70%</text>
<rect class="box" x="12" y="154" width="258" height="82" rx="12"/>
<text class="lbl gd" x="34" y="184">COST ↓</text>
<text class="sm" x="34" y="208">open frontier-class API:</text>
<text class="lbl" x="34" y="228">~1/27th the price</text>
<rect class="box" x="12" y="256" width="258" height="82" rx="12"/>
<text class="lbl gd" x="34" y="286">DEMAND ↑</text>
<text class="sm" x="34" y="310">enterprise AI spend:</text>
<text class="lbl" x="34" y="330">$11.5B → $37B</text>
<path class="lng draw" d="M282 93 C430 93 430 190 570 190" stroke-width="2" marker-end="url(#ar-now)"/>
<path class="lng draw" d="M282 195 H570" stroke-width="2" marker-end="url(#ar-now)"/>
<path class="lng draw" d="M282 297 C430 297 430 200 570 200" stroke-width="2" marker-end="url(#ar-now)"/>
<circle cx="650" cy="195" r="108" fill="#131315" stroke="#A37200" stroke-width="1"/>
<circle class="pulse" cx="650" cy="195" r="78" fill="none" stroke="#FFB000" stroke-width="2"/>
<text class="sm gd" x="650" y="166" text-anchor="middle">THE WINDOW</text>
<text class="lbl" x="650" y="194" text-anchor="middle">verified, private</text>
<text class="lbl" x="650" y="218" text-anchor="middle">AI infrastructure</text>
<text class="sm" x="650" y="244" text-anchor="middle">own the work · own the model</text>
</svg>
<div class="stack">
<div class="tiles one stagger">
<div class="tile"><div class="big" data-count="3.2" data-dec="1" data-suffix="&times;">3.2&times;</div><div class="cap">growth in enterprise AI spend in a single year — $11.5B to $37B</div></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="big" data-count="4" data-prefix="$" data-suffix="B">$4B</div><div class="cap">of it on AI coding — the breakout enterprise category, and the wedge we enter through</div></div>
</div>
<p class="lead rise" style="--d:4; font-size: 0.95rem;">We sell to large enterprise and government: regulated, security-first, and where we already have warm relationships.</p>
<div class="stack stagger">
<div class="tile"><div class="tag">THE WEDGE</div><div class="big" data-count="4" data-prefix="$" data-suffix="B">$4B</div><div class="cap">AI coding is already the breakout enterprise category. Software gives us instant, deterministic oracles.</div></div>
<div class="tile"><div class="tag">THE BUYER</div><div class="name">Regulated enterprise + government</div><div class="cap">The customers with the strongest sovereignty, audit, and verification requirements — and where we already have warm relationships.</div></div>
<div class="callout">The labs won the model race. <span class="g2">The control layer is still unclaimed.</span></div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="foot">
<p class="fine rise" style="--d:5">Sources: Menlo Ventures, 2025: The State of Generative AI in the Enterprise (Dec 2025); Grand View Research, AI Agents Market (2025). The 2030 figure is a third-party projection, not a company forecast.</p>
<p class="fine rise" style="--d:5">Sources: Stanford HAI, AI Index 2025 (open-vs-closed model gap); DeepSeek-R1 vs o1 API list pricing, Jan 2025; Menlo Ventures, State of Generative AI in the Enterprise (Dec 2025): $11.5B → $37B total spend and $4B AI coding category.</p>
</div>
</div>
</section>
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