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joaquimtimoteo/README.md

Joaquim Timóteo

AI Researcher · Senior Software Engineer · Generative AI & Agentic Systems

GitHub LinkedIn ResearchGate Kaggle


I build machine learning systems that reach production and stay there.

I'm an AI researcher at the (Advanced Computing Research Laboratory, Moscow), where I built the first operational malaria early-warning system covering every province of Angola — a five-engine ensemble forecasting outbreaks six to eight weeks ahead. Behind the research sits seven years of production engineering: fintech platforms scaled past 5,000 active users, fraud-detection models running in live financial systems, and deep-learning training accelerated 3× with CUDA and TensorRT.

Nominated for Forbes Africa Lusophone "Under 30" · Invited speaker at CPHIA 2026, Addis Ababa


Featured work

malaria-forecast-mcp — MCP server for agentic epidemiological forecasting

An MCP server that gives AI agents access to provincial malaria surveillance and short-horizon outbreak forecasting — with the guardrails that make model output safe for an agent to act on.

Provenance as a protocol resource A machine-readable model card an agent can read before quoting a forecast — validation method, measured skill, known failure modes
Structured refusals Ask for a 20-week horizon and it returns a typed error naming the validated range, not a plausible wrong number
Empirical uncertainty Every point carries an 80% interval calibrated from rolling-origin residuals, not a distributional assumption
Evaluation gates CI 468 scored forecasts per horizon; the build fails if the model stops beating the seasonal baseline

The harness caught two defects I would not have found by inspection: ensemble weights that lost to a naive baseline at long horizons, and 80% intervals with 90–95% empirical coverage. Both are documented in the README rather than quietly fixed.

Python · MCP SDK · CI across 3.10–3.12 · MIT


Malaria Early-Warning System (Angola)

Operational forecasting across all 18 provinces under the administrative division in force during the study period (2000–2024), combining climate covariates with epidemiological-memory features.

Metric Value
R² 0.985
Mean absolute error 6.9 cases per 1,000
Skill score vs. seasonal baseline 87.5%
Forecast lead time 6–8 weeks
Coverage All provinces, 2000–2024

K-means stratification resolved the provinces into three epidemiological strata and exposed a 2.8× burden disparity, providing an evidence base for differentiated resource allocation. Featured by international media in four languages.

graph LR
    S[Provincial surveillance<br/>2000–2024] --> F[Feature engineering]
    C[Climate covariates] --> F
    M[Epidemiological<br/>memory features] --> F
    F --> E{Five-engine ensemble}
    E --> B[Rolling-origin<br/>backtest]
    B --> G[Guardrails:<br/>horizon + history checks]
    G --> A[MCP server<br/>agent-facing tools]
    G --> H[Provincial health<br/>authorities]

    classDef data fill:#1f4e79,color:#fff,stroke:none;
    classDef model fill:#276DC3,color:#fff,stroke:none;
    classDef out fill:#0b6b3a,color:#fff,stroke:none;
    class S,C,M data;
    class E,B model;
    class A,H out;
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Cross-dataset evaluation of a mammographic lesion classifier

Measured internal performance against external generalisation failure, with Grad-CAM explainability to identify not just whether the model degraded but where its attention shifted when it did. Accuracy reported on internal validation is not evidence of clinical reliability elsewhere.


Other projects

Project What it is
xboot AI social-media automation bot — LSTM, CNN and BERT models across Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp
Reborn Bet Sports streaming and prediction platform combining data analysis and ML at 80% accuracy

Publications

  • Operational Malaria Forecasting in Angola Using Ensemble Models, Regional Clusters, and Epidemiological Memory Features — ResearchGate, Feb 2026
  • A Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Framework for Extreme Pattern Discovery in Complex Systems — Article and Conference Paper, Sep 2025
  • Internal Performance and External Generalization Failure of a Deep Learning Classifier for Mammographic Lesion Assessment: A Cross-Dataset Evaluation with Explainability Analysis — ResearchGate, Aug 2026

Recognition

  • Forbes Africa Lusophone "Under 30" Nominee (2026) — for AI innovation with social impact
  • "Jovem da Diáspora que Honra Angola" — national distinction for diaspora achievement
  • Letter of Recommendation, Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (AIRI) — Apr 2026
  • Invited Speaker, 5th International Conference on Public Health in Africa (CPHIA 2026), Addis Ababa
  • Speaker, National Forum on Artificial Intelligence (FNIA), Angola

Work covered by Forbes África Lusófona, Sputnik Africa, Pulse of Africa, Jornal de Angola, SAPO, PTI and Izvestia.


Stack

Generative AI & agents Claude API MCP LangChain HuggingFace

ML & research PyTorch TensorFlow scikit-learn NVIDIA

Backend & data Python Django FastAPI PostgreSQL Redis R

Cloud & DevOps AWS Azure Docker Kubernetes GitHub Actions

Security — BSc Information Security & Cybersecurity (in progress) · PWST (TCM Security) · PCI DSS (TÜV SÜD) · IAM/MFA in production


What I'm working on

Turning the Claude ecosystem work into shipped code rather than certificates: an MCP server plus a RAG pipeline with an evaluation harness, in the epidemiological forecasting domain I know best. If a system is going to be consulted by an agent instead of a specialist, the guardrails have to travel with it.


Portuguese (native) · English (C2) · Russian (C1) · French (B1)

Remote delivery across Angola, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

joaquimcarltimoteo@gmail.com

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