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9 changes: 5 additions & 4 deletions README.md
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Expand Up @@ -40,8 +40,8 @@ mission-held-out validation, and transparent release boundaries.
| Hugging Face dataset | Public processed fold package | Download selected LOMO feature matrices and result artifacts | [HF dataset card](docs/hf_dataset_card.md) |
| v9 public bulk | Metadata catalog | Task catalog, source inventory, and baseline summaries | [v9 HF-style card](docs/v9_hf_dataset_card.md) |

For linked methods, evaluation, and release cards, start with the
[SpaceBio-Bench card pack](docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_TRANSPARENCY_CARD_PACK.md).
For linked methods, evaluation, and release-status notes, start with the
[SpaceBio-Bench public documentation map](docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_TRANSPARENCY_CARD_PACK.md).
For machine-readable release status, see
[release/release_manifest.json](release/release_manifest.json).

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -159,10 +159,11 @@ scripts/ Data, evaluation, upload, validation, and figure scripts
| Need | Document |
|---|---|
| Public result source | [docs/CANONICAL_RESULTS_V7_1.md](docs/CANONICAL_RESULTS_V7_1.md) |
| Methods, evaluation, and release cards | [docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_TRANSPARENCY_CARD_PACK.md](docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_TRANSPARENCY_CARD_PACK.md) |
| Public documentation map | [docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_TRANSPARENCY_CARD_PACK.md](docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_TRANSPARENCY_CARD_PACK.md) |
| System scope | [docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_SYSTEM_CARD.md](docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_SYSTEM_CARD.md) |
| Evaluation interpretation | [docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_EVALUATION_CARD.md](docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_EVALUATION_CARD.md) |
| Release readiness | [docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_RELEASE_READINESS_CARD.md](docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_RELEASE_READINESS_CARD.md) |
| Release status | [docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_RELEASE_READINESS_CARD.md](docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_RELEASE_READINESS_CARD.md) |
| Public statement guide | [docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_CLAIM_REGISTER.md](docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_CLAIM_REGISTER.md) |
| Hugging Face dataset card source | [docs/hf_dataset_card.md](docs/hf_dataset_card.md) |
| v9 metadata catalog card source | [docs/v9_hf_dataset_card.md](docs/v9_hf_dataset_card.md) |
| Contributing and submissions | [CONTRIBUTING.md](CONTRIBUTING.md) and [docs/submission_format.md](docs/submission_format.md) |
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395 changes: 54 additions & 341 deletions docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_CLAIM_REGISTER.md

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174 changes: 53 additions & 121 deletions docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_EVALUATION_CARD.md
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---
title: SpaceBio-Bench Evaluation Card
page_type: evaluation_card
status: public_review_ready
last_reviewed: 2026-06-05
claim_boundary: benchmark_evaluation_card_draft_no_new_result_claim
status: public_ready
last_reviewed: 2026-06-16
---

# SpaceBio-Bench Evaluation Card

## Evaluation Purpose
## Purpose

This card documents how SpaceBio-Bench evaluations should be interpreted. It
separates task validity, fold structure, metric reporting, baseline status, and
claim boundaries so that benchmark scores are not overread as biological
mechanism, translational readiness, or model superiority claims.

This card does not introduce new results. It summarizes evaluation evidence
already recorded in the v7.1 canonical result surface and the v9 public bulk
metadata-alpha scaffold.

Branch note: on the default `main` branch, v9-specific evidence paths such as
`v9/...` and `docs/V9_*` refer to the curated public bulk metadata-alpha subset
included in this repository. Payload matrices and draft extension lanes are
excluded from the current public-review path.
This card explains how to read SpaceBio-Bench evaluations. It separates task
definition, fold structure, metric reporting, baseline rows, and pooled
summaries so readers can understand what a score means.

## Evaluation Surfaces

| Surface | Current status | Evaluation unit | Result boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1-v7 / v7.1 canonical surface | Canonical historical result surface | Tissue, method, feature type, held-out validation, and FM snapshot rows | Cross-mission transcriptomics benchmark summary |
| v9 public bulk alpha | Metadata-only alpha scaffold | Task manifest, LOMO fold, baseline run, prediction row, run manifest | Workflow and provenance evidence, not leaderboard ranking |
| v9 draft extension lanes | Diagnostic or feasibility scaffolds | Asset inventory, metric spec, payload audit, draft task manifest, or diagnostic run | Draft-only; no public benchmark score claim |
| Surface | Evaluation unit | Public interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| v1-v7 / v7.1 canonical surface | Tissue, method, feature type, held-out validation, and foundation-model snapshot rows | Historical cross-mission transcriptomics benchmark summary |
| Hugging Face public fold package | Public LOMO fold with matrices, labels, metadata, and selected genes | Processed data package for reproducible task-level evaluation |
| v9 public bulk catalog | Task manifest, LOMO fold, baseline run, prediction row, metric file, and run record | Metadata catalog and reference baseline surface |

## Evaluation Flow

| Stage | Evidence to inspect | Interpretation control |
| Stage | Evidence to inspect | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Source inventory | OSDR accessions, tissue labels, mission labels, access status, and checksum-manifest evidence | Confirms the public data source before interpreting any score |
| 2. Task manifest | Task id, tissue, feature namespace, source ids, label map, and metric ids | Defines what the evaluation is actually testing |
| 3. Held-out mission fold | Train/test mission split, row counts, and selected-gene counts | Keeps mission-held-out validation separate from random-split performance |
| 4. Prediction and metric files | Baseline or submitted predictions, task/fold ids, AUROC, macro-F1, balanced accuracy, calibration | Ties every metric to a concrete task and fold surface |
| 5. Per-task interpretation | Tissue-specific and fold-specific behavior | Prevents pooled means from hiding failures or confounding |
| 6. Pooled summary | Aggregate result only after task/fold checks | Allows navigation-level summaries with mission, tissue, baseline, and payload caveats |
| 7. Claim register language | Allowed, blocked, and future-only wording | Converts evaluation evidence into release-safe public claims |
| 1. Source rows | OSDR accessions, tissue labels, mission labels, and access status | Identifies the public data behind a task |
| 2. Task manifest | Task ID, tissue, feature namespace, label map, and metric IDs | Defines what the evaluation is testing |
| 3. Held-out mission fold | Train/test mission split, row counts, and selected-gene counts | Separates mission-held-out validation from random-split performance |
| 4. Prediction and metric files | Predictions, task/fold IDs, AUROC, macro-F1, balanced accuracy, and calibration | Ties every score to a concrete task and fold |
| 5. Per-task interpretation | Tissue-specific and fold-specific behavior | Preserves mission and tissue variability |
| 6. Pooled summary | Aggregate metrics after task and fold checks | Gives a navigation-level summary |

The evaluation flow is intentionally claim-aware. A score is first interpreted
at the task and fold level, then summarized only with caveats about mission,
tissue, payload, baseline, and release-surface boundaries.
## v9 Public Bulk Evaluation Unit

## Current v9 Public Bulk Evaluation Unit
The v9 public bulk catalog organizes mission-held-out classification tasks for
public mouse bulk RNA-seq sources.

The current v9 public bulk lane evaluates mission-held-out classification tasks
for public mouse bulk RNA-seq sources. The unit hierarchy is:

| Unit | Meaning | Evidence |
| Unit | Meaning | Public files |
|---|---|---|
| Task | Tissue-specific bulk LOMO task with source ids, missions, feature namespace, and metric ids | `v9/task_manifest_index.csv`; `v9/task_manifests/*.json` |
| Task | Tissue-specific bulk LOMO task with missions, labels, feature namespace, and metric IDs | `v9/task_manifest_index.csv`; `v9/task_manifests/*.json` |
| Fold | One held-out mission with train/test row counts and selected-gene counts | `v9/task_data_index.csv` |
| Baseline run | One baseline family evaluated on one task | `v9/reports/bulk_lomo_baseline_summary.csv` |
| Prediction file | Per-sample prediction output for a task/baseline run | per-baseline `predictions.csv` |
| Prediction file | Per-sample prediction output for a task and baseline run | per-baseline `predictions.csv` |
| Metrics file | Task-level metric output for a baseline run | per-baseline `metrics.json` |
| Run manifest | Provenance for a baseline execution | per-baseline `run_manifest.json` |
| Run record | Execution metadata for a baseline run | per-baseline `run_manifest.json` |

## Current Task Inventory

The v9 public bulk metadata-alpha scaffold currently indexes eight generated
bulk LOMO task manifests and 33 fold definitions:

| Task | Tissue | Variant | Missions | Folds | Sources |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| `A1_liver_bulk_lomo` | liver | canonical | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Expand All @@ -78,117 +59,74 @@ bulk LOMO task manifests and 33 fold definitions:
| `A5_skin_bulk_lomo` | skin | canonical | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| `A6_eye_bulk_lomo` | eye | canonical | 3 | 3 | 3 |

These tasks are part of a metadata-only alpha snapshot. They do not imply a
frozen payload release.

## Metrics

Current v9 public bulk task manifests list these metric ids:

| Metric | Interpretation | Reporting note |
|---|---|---|
| `macro_f1` | Class-balanced F1 summary across labels | Report per task; small folds can be unstable |
| `balanced_accuracy` | Mean sensitivity across classes | Useful under class imbalance |
| `auroc` | Rank-based discrimination between flight/control labels | Can look strong even when calibration or fold reliability is weak |
| `calibration_error` | Probability calibration diagnostic | Lower is better; compare only across matched output formats |
| `auroc` | Rank-based discrimination between flight/control labels | Compare with calibration and per-fold behavior |
| `calibration_error` | Probability calibration diagnostic | Lower is better; compare matched output formats |
| `mission_discrimination` | Diagnostic for mission-correlated structure where embeddings are available | Not emitted for every baseline family |

Metric reporting should include the task id, fold family, baseline id, variant,
and whether the result comes from a canonical result surface, metadata alpha, or
draft diagnostic lane.

## Current v9 Baseline Status
Metric reports should include task ID, fold ID, baseline or method ID, variant,
and release surface.

The current v9 public bulk scaffold includes 24 evaluated baseline rows across
three simple baseline families:
## Current v9 Baseline Rows

| Baseline family | Rows | Current interpretation |
| Baseline family | Rows | Interpretation |
|---|---:|---|
| `logistic_regression_l2` | 8 | Simple linear workflow baseline |
| `nearest_centroid` | 8 | Simple centroid-based diagnostic baseline |
| `nearest_centroid` | 8 | Simple centroid-based baseline |
| `pca_logistic_regression` | 8 | PCA feature-compression plus logistic baseline |

Mean metrics across the eight task rows are recorded in the v9 dataset card:
Mean metrics across the eight task rows:

| Baseline | Macro-F1 | Balanced accuracy | AUROC | Calibration error | Mission discrimination |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Logistic regression L2 | 0.5532 | 0.5808 | 0.6870 | 0.3439 | NA |
| Nearest centroid | 0.5383 | 0.5685 | 0.6321 | 0.1132 | 0.8733 |
| PCA logistic regression | 0.5353 | 0.5619 | 0.6447 | 0.3747 | 0.9190 |

These are scaffold baselines. They validate the task/evaluation plumbing and
provide anchors for future methods, but they are not tuned leaderboard
endpoints.

## What This Enables

The evaluation card gives readers a compact way to check whether a score is
being read at the right level: task, fold, baseline run, or pooled summary. It
also makes clear when a number is a workflow sanity check rather than a model
ranking.
These rows provide reproducible reference anchors. Use per-task rows together
with pooled means when comparing methods.

## Reading Order For Results

Read results in this order:

1. Release surface and claim boundary.
1. Release surface.
2. Task and fold definition.
3. Source provenance and payload verification status.
3. Source rows and access status.
4. Per-fold and per-task metrics.
5. Baseline run manifest and prediction count.
6. Pooled summary, only after the above checks.
5. Baseline run record and prediction count.
6. Pooled summary.

Do not start with a pooled mean alone. Pooled summaries can hide fold-level
failure, tissue-specific instability, mission-label confounding, or variant
differences.
Starting from the task and fold keeps tissue-specific behavior, mission-label
structure, and variant differences visible.

## Leakage And Confounding Controls

Current controls:

- Mission-held-out fold definitions are explicit in `v9/task_data_index.csv`.
- Task-source relationships are explicit in `v9/task_manifest_index.csv`.
- v7.1 public wording requires subset notes when comparing mixed FM surfaces.
- v9 public bulk alpha separates public bulk tasks from draft organoid,
single-cell, and multispecies lanes.
- v9 alpha documents that payload-level hash verification is pending.

Controls that remain future or lane-specific:

- Payload-level hash verification for every distributed fold matrix.
- Release-time revalidation of feature-selection and preprocessing leakage
controls for any frozen v9 payload bundle.
- Adapter-specific validation for foundation models and virtual-cell models.
- Human or biological validation for mechanistic interpretation claims.
- v7.1 public wording includes subset notes for mixed foundation-model
comparisons.
- v9 public bulk tasks are separated from extension workspaces for other
modalities.
- Feature selection and preprocessing should be checked within each training
split for any newly packaged fold.

## Failure Modes To Watch

| Failure mode | Why it matters | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Pooled-score overclaim | A high mean can hide poor tissue or mission performance | Always report per-task metrics |
| Mixed-surface FM comparison | Rows may come from different tissues, adapters, or versions | Label the reported surface for every row |
| Mission confounding | Mission labels can encode hardware, vehicle, age, protocol, or processing | Treat mission shift as benchmark pressure, not pure biology |
| Payload-boundary drift | Metadata alpha can be mistaken for frozen payload release | Keep payload hash status in every release-facing card |
| Extension-lane leakage | Draft organoid, single-cell, or multispecies lanes can be pulled into public bulk claims | Keep release target and claim boundary explicit |
| Biological interpretation overreach | Classification performance is not mechanistic proof | Separate benchmark evidence from mechanistic validation |

## Boundary Summary
| Pooled-score overread | A high mean can hide weak tissue or mission rows | Report per-task metrics |
| Mixed-surface comparison | Rows can come from different tissues, adapters, or versions | Label the release surface for every row |
| Mission confounding | Mission labels can encode hardware, vehicle, age, protocol, or processing | Interpret mission shift as the benchmark pressure |
| Biological overinterpretation | Classification performance is not mechanistic validation | Separate benchmark scores from mechanistic follow-up |

The current evaluation surfaces should not be read as evidence for:

- A frozen v9 payload release.
- A state-of-the-art model leaderboard.
- A uniform 8-tissue foundation-model comparison.
- Clinical, crew-health, countermeasure, intervention, or Mars-regime validity.
- Biological mechanism proof from classifier performance.
- Payload-level integrity beyond the currently documented checksum-manifest
evidence.

## Reproducibility Evidence

Local evidence:
## Reproducibility Files

- `docs/CANONICAL_RESULTS_V7_1.md`
- `docs/hf_dataset_card.md`
- `docs/v9_hf_dataset_card.md`
- `v9/task_manifest_index.csv`
- `v9/task_data_index.csv`
Expand All @@ -198,9 +136,3 @@ Local evidence:
- `v9/reports/nearest_centroid/bulk_lomo_summary.csv`
- `v9/reports/sklearn_baselines/bulk_lomo_summary.csv`
- `v9/datapackage.draft.json`

Companion cards:

- `docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_SYSTEM_CARD.md`
- `docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_CLAIM_REGISTER.md`
- `docs/SPACEBIOBENCH_RELEASE_READINESS_CARD.md`
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