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Add edge compute offload — inference tokens served on-device bypass D… - #93

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jakechinitz merged 1 commit into
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claude/fix-ai-efficiency-cap-db3i3
Feb 15, 2026
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Add edge compute offload — inference tokens served on-device bypass D…#93
jakechinitz merged 1 commit into
mainfrom
claude/fix-ai-efficiency-cap-db3i3

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…C supply chain

The single biggest counter-thesis to the "Energy Wall" forecast: model distillation (Llama-4-Small, Gemini Nano, Phi) running on Apple Neural Engine / Snapdragon NPU means those tokens never hit the grid.

Implementation:

  • New edgeOffload parameter per demand block: fraction of inference tokens served on-device rather than in datacenter GPUs (per segment: consumer, enterprise, agentic)
  • In computeRequiredGpus: datacenter tokens = total × (1 - edgeShare), offloaded tokens bypass GPU/transformer/cooling/grid pipeline entirely
  • Adoption curve ramps across time blocks:
    Consumer: 2% → 5% → 12% → 22% → 35% → 50% → 60% → 65%
    Enterprise: 0% → 1% → 3% → 8% → 15% → 25% → 35% → 40%
    Agentic: 0% → 0% → 1% → 2% → 5% → 10% → 15% → 20%
  • Edge offload table added to Assumptions UI (user-editable per block)
  • Results track offloaded tokens and per-segment shares for charting

All values are user-tunable — drag the consumer edge share to 80% to model an aggressive "Apple Intelligence wins" scenario, or 0% to model "cloud stays dominant."

https://claude.ai/code/session_01PHK9qmguUSTyvykAoho467

…C supply chain

The single biggest counter-thesis to the "Energy Wall" forecast: model
distillation (Llama-4-Small, Gemini Nano, Phi) running on Apple Neural
Engine / Snapdragon NPU means those tokens never hit the grid.

Implementation:
- New `edgeOffload` parameter per demand block: fraction of inference
  tokens served on-device rather than in datacenter GPUs (per segment:
  consumer, enterprise, agentic)
- In computeRequiredGpus: datacenter tokens = total × (1 - edgeShare),
  offloaded tokens bypass GPU/transformer/cooling/grid pipeline entirely
- Adoption curve ramps across time blocks:
  Consumer:   2% → 5% → 12% → 22% → 35% → 50% → 60% → 65%
  Enterprise: 0% → 1% →  3% →  8% → 15% → 25% → 35% → 40%
  Agentic:    0% → 0% →  1% →  2% →  5% → 10% → 15% → 20%
- Edge offload table added to Assumptions UI (user-editable per block)
- Results track offloaded tokens and per-segment shares for charting

All values are user-tunable — drag the consumer edge share to 80% to
model an aggressive "Apple Intelligence wins" scenario, or 0% to model
"cloud stays dominant."

https://claude.ai/code/session_01PHK9qmguUSTyvykAoho467
@jakechinitz
jakechinitz merged commit 05e89c2 into main Feb 15, 2026
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2 participants