This project analyzes the performance of the Ivory Coast national team during the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), specifically examining the contrast between the group stage and the knockout rounds following a mid-tournament managerial change.
The analysis explores how Ivory Coast transitioned from a struggling host nation in the group stage to the eventual tournament champions. The study is divided into two main phases:
- Pre-Manager Change: Performance under Jean-Louis Gasset (Group Stage).
- Post-Manager Change: Performance under Emerse Fae (Knockout Stage).
The analysis was performed using R with the following specialized sports analytics libraries:
- StatsBombR: For accessing and processing StatsBomb open data.
- SBpitch & soccermatics: For pitch visualizations and passing maps.
- Issues During Group Phase
Under Jean-Louis Gasset, Ivory Coast demonstrated a consistent ability to retain possession (averaging over 60%) but suffered from extreme wastefulness in front of goal.
- vs Guinea-Bissau: A 2-0 win despite over-performing a low xG (less than 1).
- vs Nigeria: A 1-0 loss where the team became frustrated, taking lower-quality long-range shots as the match progressed.
- vs Equatorial Guinea: A 4-0 defeat despite having nearly 70% possession and creating over 2.0 xG
- Tactical & Personnel Analysis
The data suggests the group stage failure was largely a "player problem" regarding finishing rather than a lack of chance creation, as the team frequently maintained a higher xG than their opponents.
- Seko Fofana: The primary shot-taker in the group stage (10 shots), but with only a 30% on-target rate and a low average xG per shot.
- Evan Ndicka: Showed high positional discipline in first halves but became more expansive and involved in the attack during second halves when the team was chasing games.
- Sébastien Haller: His introduction and performance in the knockout stages provided the clinical finishing missing during the initial phase.
- Resurgence During Knockouts
Following the appointment of Emerse Fae, the team managed a remarkable run through the knockout rounds, defeating Senegal (R16), Mali (QF), DR Congo (SF), and Nigeria (Final). This was achieved via resilience and pragmatism, as the data shows a remarkable shift in mental and tactical durability:
- Statistical Durability: Ivory Coast played 120+ minutes in back-to-back matches (Senegal & Mali). Despite being reduced to 10 men against Mali for over 75 minutes, they maintained a higher defensive intensity, recording more interceptions and clearances in the final 30 minutes than in the entire first half.
- The Simon Adingra Impact: Under Fae, the attack shifted flanks, moving to the right insstead of the left. Adingra became the primary engine, providing 2 assists in the Final alone and creating more "big chances" in the knockout rounds than the entire wing corps combined during the group stage.
- Sébastien Haller’s Efficiency: In contrast to the group stage's 22 wasted shots against Equatorial Guinea, Haller’s knockout performance was defined by clinical positioning. His winner in the Final came from a high-value xG position (close-range volley), signifying a shift toward higher-quality shot selection.
- Defensive Metrics: The team’s xG conceded per shot dropped significantly in the semi-final and final. By utilizing a lower defensive block and prioritizing rapid transitions, Fae reduced the "cheap" counter-attacking goals that plagued the Gasset era.
The data indicates that while the tactical foundation for possession was present early on, the managerial change coincided with a significant improvement in finishing and defensive resilience (most importantly the focus on decreasing counter attacking opportunities for opponents). The project concludes that the team's ultimate success was driven by aligning chance creation with the clinical presence of key players like Haller in the final stages.