fix: fail closed on incomplete 2024 political TIGER manifest

[cbwinslow]

Follow-up hardening for #117.

Independent verification of the official Census TIGER2024 directory indexes shows:

• CD119: 56 ZIP members
• SLDU: 52 ZIP members
• SLDL: 50 ZIP members
• total: 158

The planner already discovers members from Census rather than a hand-maintained state list. This patch adds a frozen-package completeness contract so a partial/truncated publisher directory response cannot silently produce an incomplete approved plan.

Also records the verified counts in the Story 10.2 research note and adds a focused fail-closed test.

No new geography scope is added.

[coderabbitai]

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Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 8cce113 and 4df5afb.

📒 Files selected for processing (3)

• docs/research/2026-10-05-district-data-source-verification.md
• src/opendiscourse_research/ingestion/tiger_bulk.py
• tests/test_census_bulk.py

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