Skip to content

examples: emergency_readiness_portfolio — the weakest-link (min) objective showcase - #137

Merged
cafzal merged 1 commit into
mainfrom
claude/readiness-example
Aug 3, 2026
Merged

examples: emergency_readiness_portfolio — the weakest-link (min) objective showcase#137
cafzal merged 1 commit into
mainfrom
claude/readiness-example

Conversation

@cafzal

@cafzal cafzal commented Aug 3, 2026

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Owner

Adds the emergency_readiness_portfolio bundled example: 96 readiness assets, 2^96 portfolios, and the portfolio's first min-aggregated signature objective (weakest hazard line), with subregion floors/caps, crew-sharing exclusions, and cache dependencies.

Showcase. The proof layer earns its place: the same NSGA search rerun under another seed tops out at a weakest link of 38.7 while the exact audit proves 41.8 attainable (a 100-seed survey during prep found 53 misses, 38.7 modal; the repo-asserted claim is the single seed-2 rerun). On a min objective a heuristic best is a lower bound — the audit probe confirms the true ceiling, pinned by a single asset (Delta hazmat), and shows budget is not the lever.

Discipline. Seeded generator asserts all 14 README claims (including the seed-2 miss); bundle baked on current main — byte-identical re-bake post #132/#134/#135/#136. Upstream kit guarded by tests/test_upstream_kits.py (+52 lines). Index row + governance-paragraph mention in examples/README.md.

Verification. Full suite 1042 passed / 2 skipped on the branch; live pipeline-tested through the MCP tools (three-layer bar: worth the agent / the metaheuristic / the proof layer — verdict publish); provenance/secrets sweep over origin/main...HEAD clean.

…e showcase

The first bundled example whose signature objective is min-aggregated: portfolio
Readiness is the weakest hazard line, not a total, so funding an asset can lower it.

- 96 response assets, 20-24 funded, 4 objectives (Readiness min / SurgeCapacity sum /
  Cost sum / ActivationTime avg), 45 coupled constraints, 2 scenarios.
- Flagship proof-layer receipt, promoted to the README headline: the same NSGA search
  rerun under another seed tops out at a weakest link of 38.7 while the exact audit
  proves 41.8 attainable — on a min objective a heuristic's best value is a lower bound
  on what's attainable; the audit probe confirms the true ceiling (generator CLAIM-14).
- The exact MILP gate declines the shape by design (min is nonlinear, avg is fractional);
  the proof layer is explore audit, whose feasibility solves reason through the
  constraint set alone.
- Governance: a ten-conjunct coverage guarantee holds across every feasible portfolio,
  the tightened variant is refuted with a witness, and an emergent $25.5M minimum spend
  falls out of the floors.
- Bottleneck: a mandated group floor caps the weakest link at that group's k-th best
  asset, so no legal portfolio beats 41.8 at any budget down to $27M/yr — proven by a
  pair of HiGHS feasibility probes and attained by the baked frontier.
- Bundle re-baked on the post-merge-train engine (adds the scenario
  base_constraints_fingerprint / base_fingerprint fields; solutions unchanged).

Upstream kit + ask-literal guard in tests/test_upstream_kits.py; index row and audit
paragraph in examples/README.md.
@cafzal
cafzal force-pushed the claude/readiness-example branch from 29d5dd7 to 79f74cc Compare August 3, 2026 22:27
@cafzal
cafzal merged commit ec7c7ef into main Aug 3, 2026
2 checks passed
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant