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Real gauges: measured numbers replace the synthetic indices#5

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Real gauges: measured numbers replace the synthetic indices#5
aurph wants to merge 1 commit into
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feat/real-gauges

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@aurph

@aurph aurph commented Jul 3, 2026

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Owner-directed follow-up to the overhaul: the synthetic AI Power Demand / NPI / Grid Stress gauges are replaced by direct measurements over sourced data.

  • Tracked AI DC Power: 18.8 GW operational + construction (verified >=400 MW dataset, announced excluded and disclosed)
  • Cost of AI Compute: GPU fleet average $/hr with real 1Y change
  • Grid Headroom: tightest RTO reserve margin (MISO 13.4%, NERC LTRA 2025)
  • Buildout-over-time chart from facility open dates replaces the index history card (solid = operational history, dashed = construction pipeline)
  • Power map GW headline aligned to the same definition; shared rto-config
  • No server changes; /api/kpis + /api/index-history keep recording for transparency
  • lib/real-gauges.ts pure module, 100% covered; suite 180 tests

Base is the overhaul branch; retarget to main after PR #4 merges.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

https://claude.ai/code/session_011dDxxKQpH3o4CA7qnDFGdN

…er-directed)

The three headline gauges - AI Power Demand (sentiment formula around a
fixed 72 baseline), Nuclear Power Index (never-rebalanced basket where
VST compounded to ~43% weight and ~91% of daily variance), and Grid
Stress (r 0.96 co-movement with NPI) - are gone from the dashboard.
Owner's words: the 2024 starting point is arbitrary; make the numbers
real.

Replacements, each a direct computation over sourced data with
provenance on the card:
- TRACKED AI DC POWER: 18.8 GW operational + construction across the
  verified >=400 MW facility dataset (announced projects excluded from
  the headline - press releases are not steel - and said so on card).
- COST OF AI COMPUTE: fleet-average GPU rental $/hr with real 1Y
  change, from the GPU price index (priciest/cheapest rows).
- GRID HEADROOM: tightest reserve margin among AI-load RTOs (MISO
  13.4%), NERC LTRA 2025, three tightest listed.

The 'Gauges Since Jan 2024' card becomes TRACKED BUILDOUT OVER TIME: a
real cumulative-capacity series from facility open dates - solid
step line for operational history, dashed for the construction
pipeline at planned dates, undated sites counted honestly. Header
strip shows tracked GW + GW building instead of the NPI.

Consistency: the Power map's GW headline now uses the same definition
(announced excluded, noted in the title attr); RTO reserve margins
extracted to a shared data/rto-config consumed by both surfaces.

No server changes: gauges compute client-side from existing endpoints
(/api/datacenters, /api/gpu-prices/metrics). /api/kpis and
/api/index-history keep serving and recording for transparency;
nothing on the dashboard consumes them anymore.

New pure module lib/real-gauges.ts, 100% covered (suite 180 tests).
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