Replace the indices with the real buildout scoreboard

README.md

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ Live: **[gridtilt.com](https://gridtilt.com)**
 
 | Module | What's inside |
 |---|---|
-| **Tilt Overview** | Top movers, sector pulse, catalyst calendar, US electricity demand chart (2010 → 2030 projection), thesis-health KPIs. |
+| **Tilt Overview** | The buildout scoreboard (signed nuclear GW, DC pipeline GW, interconnection queue, grid pulse), top movers, catalyst calendar, US electricity demand chart (2010 → 2030 projection). |
 | **The Stack** | 100 tickers across 13 supply-chain layers (compute, nuclear, uranium, power hardware, utilities, data-center REITs, construction, mining, natural gas, renewables, grid hardware, crypto/AI DC, ETF benchmarks). |
 | **Power Map** | US data center locations with power capacity and the utility / RTO they sit on. |
 | **Supply Chain** | D3 force graph of 24 nodes and 52 real supply relationships from raw materials to end-use compute. |
@@ -32,23 +32,27 @@ Live: **[gridtilt.com](https://gridtilt.com)**
 | Physical electricity output | FRED [`IPG2211A2N`](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPG2211A2N) served live at `/api/physical/electricity-output`; EIA US48 hourly demand at `/api/physical/load-hourly` once `EIA_API_KEY` is set | Live (FRED daily cache; EIA 30-min cache) |
 | Data center locations | Public announcements (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple, xAI, OpenAI, Oracle), curated through a reviewed RSS ingestion pipeline | Curated, refreshed as announcements land |
 | Industry news | Live RSS from 8 publications | Live, refreshed hourly |
-| AI Demand, Grid Stress, NPI | Composite indices computed from constituent **equity moves** (NPI also uses uranium spot and a hand-derived policy score). They are market-based gauges, **not** physical grid measurements. See [Index methodology](#index-methodology). | Live, with labeled static fallback |
+| Buildout scoreboard (nuclear deals, DC pipeline, queue, capex) | Curated datasets in `server/data/` summed in real units; every group carries its source and as-of date. See [The scoreboard](#the-scoreboard). | Curated, refreshed as deals and filings land |
 
 No proprietary data feeds and no scraped paywalled sources. All projections are clearly labeled as such.
 
 ---
 
-## Index methodology
+## The scoreboard
 
-The three headline indices are deterministic functions of their published constituents. Exact formulas, so you can check the math:
+The headline numbers are sums over curated datasets, in real units. No baselines, no clamps, no index anchors, nothing rebased to 100.
 
-- **AI Demand** = clamp(52–94, `72 + 1.2 × (NVDA% × 0.40 + TSM% × 0.25 + EQIX% × 0.20 + MU% × 0.15)`) using today's intraday percent changes. It reads how the market is pricing the AI-buildout complex **today**; it does not measure data-center load.
-- **Grid Stress** = clamp(52–92, `68 + (VST% × 0.40 + CEG% × 0.35 + EQIX% × 0.25)`). Same construction; EQIX appears in both baskets. It reads power-equity momentum, not reserve margins or LMPs.
-- **NPI (Nuclear Power Index)** = `100 × (0.25·CEG + 0.20·VST + 0.15·CCJ + 0.20·NLR + 0.10·uranium spot + 0.10·policy)` as price relatives to Jan 1, 2024 bases, times a 0.9–1.1 policy multiplier from a hand-derived SMR policy score. Weights are judgment calls and labeled as such.
+- **Nuclear-for-AI, signed** = sum of `capacityMW` over active, datacenter-relevant nuclear projects marked `firmness: "signed"` in `server/data/interconnection-queue.json`. Signed means executed contracts and restarts underway. Options, proposals, and aggregate LOI pipelines live in separate buckets and never inflate the headline.
+- **DC pipeline** = sums by build status over `server/data/datacenters.json` (tracked US sites at 400 MW or more; a curated registry, not a census), plus disclosed FY2025 hyperscaler capex with per-company source links.
+- **Interconnection queue** = LBNL "Queued Up" headline stats plus ISO filings, with as-of dates shipped in the data.
+- **Grid pulse** = live US48 demand from EIA's hourly grid monitor (free key) and year-over-year US electric output from FRED `IPG2211A2N`. Measurements, not sentiment.
+- The one market element left is a single line: an equal-weight mean of today's percent moves across the tracked tickers, with stale tickers excluded and the live count disclosed. A percent, never a level.
 
-Baselines (72, 68) and clamps are presentation choices that keep the gauges readable; they are disclosed here so nobody mistakes them for measurements. Constituent values are exposed at `/api/kpis`.
+Everything is served at `/api/metrics` with a source and as-of per group; daily snapshots append at `/api/metrics/history`.
 
-**Validation:** the gauges are backtested against physical electricity output (FRED `IPG2211A2N`, 2019–2026, leads 0–3 months) in [docs/INDEX_VALIDATION.md](./docs/INDEX_VALIDATION.md). Result: neither AI Demand nor Grid Stress shows a physical signal, so both are labeled **market sentiment gauges** in the UI, not measurements. Reproduce it yourself: `npm run backtest:indices`. The reconstructed daily series lives in `server/data/index-history.json`.
+### What happened to the indices
+
+GridTilt used to headline three composite indices (AI Demand, Grid Stress, NPI). We backtested them against physical electricity output (FRED, 2019–2026) and published the result: no physical signal at any lead, and NPI moved at r = 0.95 with a single constituent stock. So on 2026-06-10 we retired them and replaced them with the real numbers above. The study stays public in [docs/INDEX_VALIDATION.md](./docs/INDEX_VALIDATION.md), the formulas remain in `server/indices.ts`, the archived daily series is still served at `/api/index-history`, and `npm run backtest:indices` still reproduces it from public prices.
 
 ---
 

client/src/components/home/Hero.tsx

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import { Link } from "wouter";
 import { useQuery } from "@tanstack/react-query";
 import { Wordmark } from "./Wordmark";
-import type { KpiData } from "@/lib/types";
+import type { MetricsSummary } from "@/lib/types";
 import logoPath from "@assets/Image_[Vectorized]_(2)_1773890483514.png";
 import powerMapSvg from "@assets/previews/power-map.svg";
 
@@ -19,14 +19,12 @@ function formatRefreshTimeFromIso(iso: string | undefined): string | null {
 }
 
 export function Hero() {
-  const { data } = useQuery<KpiData>({
-    queryKey: ["/api/kpis"],
+  const { data } = useQuery<MetricsSummary>({
+    queryKey: ["/api/metrics"],
     refetchInterval: 5 * 60_000,
     refetchIntervalInBackground: false,
   });
   const refresh = formatRefreshTimeFromIso(data?.asOf);
-  const sourceKnown = data?.source === "live" || data?.source === "static";
-  const isLive = data?.source === "live";
 
   return (
     <section
@@ -81,20 +79,22 @@ export function Hero() {
             data-testid="home-logo-mark"
           />
         </Link>
-        {sourceKnown && refresh && (
+        {data && refresh && (
           <span
             style={{
               fontFamily: "JetBrains Mono, monospace",
               fontSize: 11,
               color: "var(--mkt-ink-muted)",
               letterSpacing: "0.04em",
               textAlign: "right",
-              lineHeight: 1.4,
+              lineHeight: 1.5,
               paddingTop: 14,
             }}
             data-testid="hero-refresh"
           >
-            {isLive ? "data refreshed" : "static fallback"} {refresh}
+            {data.nuclear.signedGW} GW signed nuclear · {data.pipeline.constructionGW} GW dc construction · {data.backlog.queueOverallGW.toLocaleString()} GW queued
+            <br />
+            scoreboard refreshed {refresh}
           </span>
         )}
       </div>

client/src/lib/types.ts

@@ -37,18 +37,11 @@ export interface AllCatalystsResponse {
   items: MergedCatalystItem[];
 }
 
-export interface KpiData {
-  aiPowerIndex: number;
-  npiValue: number;
-  gridStress: number;
-  smrPolicyScore: number;
-  npiBaseDate: string;
-  source?: "live" | "static";
-  asOf?: string;
-  constituents: {
-    nvdaChange: number; tsmChange: number; eqixChange: number; muChange: number;
-    cegPerf: number; vstPerf: number; ccjPerf: number; nlrPerf: number;
-    uPerf: number; policyPerf: number; npiPolicyMultiplier: number; npiMomentum: number;
-    vstChange: number; cegChange: number;
-  };
+// Minimal shape of GET /api/metrics for surfaces that only need the
+// headline numbers (the dashboard keeps its richer local interface).
+export interface MetricsSummary {
+  nuclear: { signedGW: number; announcedGW: number; signedDeals: number; totalDeals: number };
+  pipeline: { operationalGW: number; constructionGW: number; announcedGW: number; siteCount: number };
+  backlog: { queueOverallGW: number; medianWaitMonths: number };
+  asOf: string;
 }

client/src/pages/TheStack.tsx

@@ -8,18 +8,7 @@ import {
   TooltipContent,
   TooltipTrigger,
 } from "@/components/ui/tooltip";
-import {
-  LineChart,
-  Line,
-  ResponsiveContainer,
-  ScatterChart,
-  Scatter,
-  XAxis,
-  YAxis,
-  CartesianGrid,
-  Tooltip,
-  Legend,
-} from "recharts";
+import { LineChart, Line, ResponsiveContainer } from "recharts";
 import { Cpu, Server, Zap, TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Info, Clock } from "lucide-react";
 
 interface StockData {
@@ -37,11 +26,6 @@ interface StockData {
   stale?: boolean;
 }
 
-interface CorrelationPoint {
-  uranium: number;
-  ccj: number;
-}
-
 interface StackData {
   compute: StockData[];
   nuclear: StockData[];
@@ -56,9 +40,6 @@ interface StackData {
   transmissionGrid: StockData[];
   cryptoAIDC: StockData[];
   etfsBenchmarks: StockData[];
-  correlation: CorrelationPoint[];
-  correlationCoeff: number;
-  cegCorrelationCoeff: number;
 }
 
 function Sparkline({ data, color }: { data: number[] | undefined; color: string }) {
@@ -182,47 +163,10 @@ function StockCardSkeleton() {
   );
 }
 
-const CustomScatterTooltip = ({ active, payload }: any) => {
-  if (active && payload && payload.length) {
-    return (
-      <div className="bg-card border border-card-border rounded-lg p-3 text-xs shadow-xl">
-        <p className="text-muted-foreground">Uranium Spot: <span className="text-foreground font-mono font-medium">${payload[0]?.value?.toFixed(2)}/lb</span></p>
-        <p className="text-muted-foreground">CCJ: <span className="text-foreground font-mono font-medium">${payload[1]?.value?.toFixed(2)}</span></p>
-      </div>
-    );
-  }
-  return null;
-};
-
-// Compute OLS regression line + confidence band from scatter data
-function computeRegression(points: { uranium: number; ccj: number }[]) {
-  if (!points || points.length < 3) return { line: [], upper: [], lower: [] };
-  const n = points.length;
-  const xs = points.map((p) => p.uranium);
-  const ys = points.map((p) => p.ccj);
-  const meanX = xs.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n;
-  const meanY = ys.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n;
-  const sxx = xs.reduce((s, x) => s + (x - meanX) ** 2, 0);
-  const sxy = xs.reduce((s, x, i) => s + (x - meanX) * (ys[i] - meanY), 0);
-  const slope = sxy / sxx;
-  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX;
-  const residuals = xs.map((x, i) => ys[i] - (slope * x + intercept));
-  const se = Math.sqrt(residuals.reduce((s, r) => s + r * r, 0) / (n - 2));
-  const minX = Math.min(...xs);
-  const maxX = Math.max(...xs);
-  const steps = 30;
-  const line = [];
-  const upper = [];
-  const lower = [];
-  for (let i = 0; i <= steps; i++) {
-    const x = minX + ((maxX - minX) * i) / steps;
-    const fit = slope * x + intercept;
-    line.push({ uranium: parseFloat(x.toFixed(2)), ccj: parseFloat(fit.toFixed(2)) });
-    upper.push({ uranium: parseFloat(x.toFixed(2)), ccj: parseFloat((fit + 1.5 * se).toFixed(2)) });
-    lower.push({ uranium: parseFloat(x.toFixed(2)), ccj: parseFloat((fit - 1.5 * se).toFixed(2)) });
-  }
-  return { line, upper, lower };
-}
+// (The uranium-vs-CCJ/CEG correlation scatter that lived here was removed on
+// 2026-06-10: the server generated its points with Math.random tuned to a
+// target Pearson r. No honest free daily uranium series exists to draw the
+// real chart, so it is gone rather than faked.)
 
 type Timeframe = "1D" | "5D" | "1M";
 type SortBy = "change" | "marketcap" | "alpha";
@@ -258,11 +202,6 @@ export default function TheStack() {
     refetchInterval: 900000,
   });
 
-  const regression = useMemo(
-    () => computeRegression(data?.correlation ?? []),
-    [data?.correlation]
-  );
-
   const layerConfig = [
     {
       key: "compute",
@@ -482,136 +421,6 @@ export default function TheStack() {
           );
         })}
 
-        {/* Uranium vs CCJ Correlation scatter */}
-        <div>
-          <Card className="p-6 border-card-border">
-            <div className="flex items-start justify-between gap-4 mb-4 flex-wrap">
-              <div>
-                <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mb-1">
-                  <h2 className="font-semibold text-foreground">Uranium Spot vs. CCJ Correlation</h2>
-                  <UITooltip>
-                    <TooltipTrigger>
-                      <Info className="h-3.5 w-3.5 text-muted-foreground" />
-                    </TooltipTrigger>
-                    <TooltipContent className="max-w-xs">
-                      <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed">CCJ is the largest public uranium miner with the highest direct spot price beta. CEG (utility) is influenced by electricity contracts and regulated returns. CCJ = commodity bet, CEG = infrastructure bet.</p>
-                    </TooltipContent>
-                  </UITooltip>
-                </div>
-                <p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground">52-week uranium spot price ($/lb) vs. CCJ stock price. Each dot = one week.</p>
-              </div>
-              <div className="flex items-center gap-6">
-                {data?.correlationCoeff !== undefined && (
-                  <div className="text-right">
-                    <p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground font-mono">CCJ Pearson r</p>
-                    <p className="text-2xl font-bold font-mono text-[#F0A500]">{data.correlationCoeff.toFixed(3)}</p>
-                    <p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground">
-                      {data.correlationCoeff > 0.7 ? "Strong" : data.correlationCoeff > 0.4 ? "Moderate" : "Weak"} correlation
-                    </p>
-                  </div>
-                )}
-                {data?.cegCorrelationCoeff !== undefined && (
-                  <div className="text-right">
-                    <p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground font-mono">CEG Pearson r</p>
-                    <p className="text-2xl font-bold font-mono text-foreground">{data.cegCorrelationCoeff.toFixed(3)}</p>
-                    <p className="text-xs text-muted-foreground">Utility beta</p>
-                  </div>
-                )}
-              </div>
-            </div>
-
-            {isLoading ? (
-              <Skeleton className="h-48 w-full" />
-            ) : (
-              <>
-                <ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height={260}>
-                  <ScatterChart margin={{ top: 10, right: 20, bottom: 24, left: 10 }}>
-                    <CartesianGrid strokeDasharray="3 3" stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.05)" />
-                    <XAxis
-                      dataKey="uranium"
-                      type="number"
-                      name="Uranium"
-                      domain={["auto", "auto"]}
-                      tick={{ fill: "#6b7280", fontSize: 11 }}
-                      tickLine={false}
-                      axisLine={{ stroke: "rgba(255,255,255,0.08)" }}
-                      label={{ value: "Uranium Spot ($/lb)", position: "insideBottom", offset: -10, fill: "#6b7280", fontSize: 11 }}
-                    />
-                    <YAxis
-                      dataKey="ccj"
-                      type="number"
-                      name="CCJ"
-                      domain={["auto", "auto"]}
-                      tick={{ fill: "#6b7280", fontSize: 11 }}
-                      tickLine={false}
-                      axisLine={false}
-                      label={{ value: "CCJ ($)", angle: -90, position: "insideLeft", offset: 10, fill: "#6b7280", fontSize: 11 }}
-                    />
-                    <Tooltip content={<CustomScatterTooltip />} />
-                    {/* Upper confidence band */}
-                    <Scatter
-                      data={regression.upper}
-                      fill="none"
-                      line={{ stroke: "#F0A500", strokeWidth: 1, strokeDasharray: "5 4", strokeOpacity: 0.35 }}
-                      shape={() => null as any}
-                      legendType="none"
-                      name="Upper Band"
-                    />
-                    {/* Lower confidence band */}
-                    <Scatter
-                      data={regression.lower}
-                      fill="none"
-                      line={{ stroke: "#F0A500", strokeWidth: 1, strokeDasharray: "5 4", strokeOpacity: 0.35 }}
-                      shape={() => null as any}
-                      legendType="none"
-                      name="Lower Band"
-                    />
-                    {/* OLS regression line */}
-                    <Scatter
-                      data={regression.line}
-                      fill="none"
-                      line={{ stroke: "#F0A500", strokeWidth: 2, strokeOpacity: 0.85 }}
-                      shape={() => null as any}
-                      legendType="none"
-                      name="OLS Fit"
-                    />
-                    {/* Raw scatter dots */}
-                    <Scatter
-                      data={data?.correlation ?? []}
-                      fill="#F0A500"
-                      opacity={0.65}
-                      r={4}
-                      name="Weekly Obs."
-                    />
-                  </ScatterChart>
-                </ResponsiveContainer>
-                <div className="flex items-center gap-5 text-xs text-muted-foreground mt-1 mb-1">
-                  <div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
-                    <div className="h-2 w-2 rounded-full bg-[#F0A500] opacity-70" />
-                    <span>Weekly observation</span>
-                  </div>
-                  <div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
-                    <div className="w-6 border-t-2 border-[#F0A500]" style={{ opacity: 0.85 }} />
-                    <span>OLS trend line</span>
-                  </div>
-                  <div className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
-                    <div className="w-6 border-t border-[#F0A500] border-dashed" style={{ opacity: 0.45 }} />
-                    <span>±1.5σ channel</span>
-                  </div>
-                </div>
-              </>
-            )}
-
-            <div className="mt-3 pt-3 border-t border-border grid grid-cols-1 md:grid-cols-2 gap-3 text-xs text-muted-foreground">
-              <p>
-                <span className="text-[#F0A500] font-semibold">CCJ (pure miner)</span> has higher uranium spot beta. Its P&L moves directly with U3O8 pricing.
-              </p>
-              <p>
-                <span className="text-slate-400 font-semibold">CEG (nuclear utility)</span> is influenced by electricity contracts and regulated returns. Smoother, less volatile nuclear exposure.
-              </p>
-            </div>
-          </Card>
-        </div>
       </div>
     </div>
   );