BFG summer-2026 round readiness: source registry, off-peak scrapers, questions

bioscancast/datasets/sources.yaml

@@ -4,6 +4,16 @@ general_sources:
       url: "https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news"
       geography: "Global"
 
+    - id: "who_pheic_list"
+      name: "WHO IHR Emergency Committees (PHEIC status)"
+      url: "https://www.who.int/teams/ihr/ihr-emergency-committees"
+      geography: "Global"
+
+    - id: "who_variant_tracking"
+      name: "WHO Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants"
+      url: "https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants"
+      geography: "Global"
+
     - id: "cdc_outbreaks"
       name: "CDC Current Outbreaks"
       url: "https://www.cdc.gov/outbreaks/index.html"
@@ -73,11 +83,21 @@ specific_pathogen_sources:
         url: "https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza"
         geography: "Global"
 
+      - id: "who_h5_hai"
+        name: "WHO Influenza at the human-animal interface (monthly risk assessment)"
+        url: "https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary"
+        geography: "Global"
+
       - id: "cdc_h5n1"
         name: "CDC H5N1 Situation Summary"
         url: "https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/"
         geography: "Global"
 
+      - id: "usda_aphis_livestock"
+        name: "USDA APHIS HPAI Confirmed Cases in Livestock"
+        url: "https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/hpai-confirmed-cases-livestock"
+        geography: "United States"
+
     covid-19:
       - id: "ourworldindata_covid"
         name: "Our World in Data - COVID-19"
@@ -87,6 +107,10 @@ specific_pathogen_sources:
         name: "CDC COVID-19"
         url: "https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/surveillance/index.html"
         geography: "Global"
+      - id: "who_variant_tracking"
+        name: "WHO Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants"
+        url: "https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants"
+        geography: "Global"
 
     influenza:
       - id: "who_flunet"
@@ -101,14 +125,24 @@ specific_pathogen_sources:
 
   hemorrhagic:
     ebola:
+      - id: "who_ebola_drc"
+        name: "WHO Ebola outbreak DRC 2026 (Bundibugyo virus) event page"
+        url: "https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/ebola-outbreak---drc-2026"
+        geography: "Global"
+
+      - id: "who_ebola_don"
+        name: "WHO Disease Outbreak News - Ebola (Bundibugyo) DRC & Uganda"
+        url: "https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON602"
+        geography: "Global"
+
       - id: "who_ebola"
         name: "WHO Ebola"
-        url: "https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-virus-disease"
+        url: "https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-disease"
         geography: "Global"
 
       - id: "cdc_ebola"
         name: "CDC Ebola"
-        url: "https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/index.html"
+        url: "https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/about/index.html"
         geography: "Global"
 
     marburg:
@@ -125,8 +159,8 @@ specific_pathogen_sources:
   pox_re_emerging_viruses:
     mpox:
       - id: "who_mpox"
-        name: "WHO MPOX"
-        url: "https://www.who.int/health-topics/mpox"
+        name: "WHO Mpox outbreak (multi-country)"
+        url: "https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/mpox-outbreak"
         geography: "Global"
 
       - id: "ourworldindata_mpox"
@@ -135,8 +169,8 @@ specific_pathogen_sources:
         geography: "Global"
 
       - id: "cdc_mpox"
-        name: "CDC MPOX"
-        url: "https://www.cdc.gov/mpox/data-research/index.html"
+        name: "CDC Mpox Situation Summary"
+        url: "https://www.cdc.gov/monkeypox/situation-summary/index.html"
         geography: "Global"
 
       - id: "ecdc_mpox"
@@ -159,11 +193,77 @@ specific_pathogen_sources:
         url: "https://www.paho.org/en/situation-reports?topic=87192&d%5Bmin%5D=&d%5Bmax%5D="
         geography: "Americas"
 
-  vector_borne: []
+  vector_borne:
+    dengue:
+      - id: "paho_dengue"
+        name: "PAHO Epidemiological Update - Dengue in the Americas"
+        url: "https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates"
+        geography: "Americas"
+
+    chikungunya:
+      - id: "ecdc_chikungunya"
+        name: "ECDC Chikungunya worldwide overview (monthly)"
+        url: "https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/chikungunya-monthly"
+        geography: "Europe"
+
+    oropouche:
+      - id: "paho_oropouche"
+        name: "PAHO Oropouche virus disease"
+        url: "https://www.paho.org/en/topics/oropouche-virus-disease"
+        geography: "Americas"
+
+  enteric:
+    cholera:
+      - id: "who_cholera"
+        name: "WHO Cholera upsurge (multi-country external situation reports)"
+        url: "https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/cholera-upsurge"
+        geography: "Global"
+
+  vaccine_preventable:
+    measles:
+      - id: "cdc_measles"
+        name: "CDC Measles Cases and Outbreaks (data & research)"
+        url: "https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html"
+        geography: "United States"
+
+      - id: "paho_measles"
+        name: "PAHO Measles"
+        url: "https://www.paho.org/en/topics/measles"
+        geography: "Americas"
+
+    polio:
+      - id: "gpei_polio"
+        name: "GPEI Polio this week"
+        url: "https://polioeradication.org/about-polio/polio-this-week/"
+        geography: "Global"
 
   animal_spillover:
     nipah:
       - id: "who_nipah"
         name: "WHO Nipah"
         url: "https://www.who.int/health-topics/nipah-virus-infection"
-        geography: "Global"
+        geography: "Global"
+
+    # Avian influenza is zoonotic, so the source router often classifies H5
+    # questions as animal_spillover rather than respiratory. Mirror the H5N1
+    # sources here so either route injects the right dashboards.
+    h5n1:
+      - id: "who_h5n1"
+        name: "WHO H5N1 Situation Updates"
+        url: "https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza"
+        geography: "Global"
+
+      - id: "who_h5_hai"
+        name: "WHO Influenza at the human-animal interface (monthly risk assessment)"
+        url: "https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary"
+        geography: "Global"
+
+      - id: "cdc_h5n1"
+        name: "CDC H5N1 Situation Summary"
+        url: "https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/"
+        geography: "Global"
+
+      - id: "usda_aphis_livestock"
+        name: "USDA APHIS HPAI Confirmed Cases in Livestock"
+        url: "https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/hpai-confirmed-cases-livestock"
+        geography: "United States"

bioscancast/stages/evaluation/bfg_summer_2026_options.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+question_id;forecast_source;forecast_version;option;probability
+bfg_q1;bins;1;less than 250;0
+bfg_q1;bins;1;250 to 499;0
+bfg_q1;bins;1;500 to 999;0
+bfg_q1;bins;1;1,000 to 2,499;0
+bfg_q1;bins;1;2,500 or more;0
+bfg_q2;bins;1;100 or fewer;0
+bfg_q2;bins;1;101 to 250;0
+bfg_q2;bins;1;251 to 500;0
+bfg_q2;bins;1;501 to 1,000;0
+bfg_q2;bins;1;more than 1,000;0
+bfg_q3;bins;1;YES;0
+bfg_q3;bins;1;NO;0
+bfg_q4;bins;1;YES;0
+bfg_q4;bins;1;NO;0
+bfg_q5;bins;1;Vaccine candidate enters clinical trial in affected countries;0
+bfg_q5;bins;1;Investigational therapeutic administered under expanded access or MEURI;0
+bfg_q5;bins;1;Both occur;0
+bfg_q5;bins;1;Neither occurs;0
+bfg_q6;bins;1;0 to 4;0
+bfg_q6;bins;1;5 to 14;0
+bfg_q6;bins;1;15 to 29;0
+bfg_q6;bins;1;30 to 59;0
+bfg_q6;bins;1;60 or more;0
+bfg_q7;bins;1;YES;0
+bfg_q7;bins;1;NO;0
+bfg_q8;bins;1;H5N1;0
+bfg_q8;bins;1;H5N5;0
+bfg_q8;bins;1;Another H5Nx;0
+bfg_q8;bins;1;No human H5 cases reported in the period;0
+bfg_q9;bins;1;19 or fewer;0
+bfg_q9;bins;1;20;0
+bfg_q9;bins;1;21 to 22;0
+bfg_q9;bins;1;23 to 25;0
+bfg_q9;bins;1;26 or more;0
+bfg_q10;bins;1;0;0
+bfg_q10;bins;1;1;0
+bfg_q10;bins;1;2 or more;0
+bfg_q11;bins;1;1;0
+bfg_q11;bins;1;2;0
+bfg_q11;bins;1;3;0
+bfg_q11;bins;1;4 or more;0
+bfg_q12;bins;1;YES;0
+bfg_q12;bins;1;NO;0
+bfg_q13;bins;1;fewer than 5,000;0
+bfg_q13;bins;1;5,000 to 14,999;0
+bfg_q13;bins;1;15,000 to 29,999;0
+bfg_q13;bins;1;30,000 to 59,999;0
+bfg_q13;bins;1;60,000 or more;0
+bfg_q14;bins;1;under 2,500;0
+bfg_q14;bins;1;2,500 to 3,499;0
+bfg_q14;bins;1;3,500 to 4,999;0
+bfg_q14;bins;1;5,000 to 7,499;0
+bfg_q14;bins;1;7,500 or more;0
+bfg_q15;bins;1;YES;0
+bfg_q15;bins;1;NO;0
+bfg_q16;bins;1;0;0
+bfg_q16;bins;1;1;0
+bfg_q16;bins;1;2 to 3;0
+bfg_q16;bins;1;4 to 6;0
+bfg_q16;bins;1;7 or more;0
+bfg_q17;bins;1;under 150k;0
+bfg_q17;bins;1;150k to 299k;0
+bfg_q17;bins;1;300k to 449k;0
+bfg_q17;bins;1;450k to 599k;0
+bfg_q17;bins;1;600k or more;0
+bfg_q18;bins;1;under 1M;0
+bfg_q18;bins;1;1 to 1.9M;0
+bfg_q18;bins;1;2 to 3.9M;0
+bfg_q18;bins;1;4 to 6.9M;0
+bfg_q18;bins;1;7M or more;0
+bfg_q19;bins;1;0;0
+bfg_q19;bins;1;1;0
+bfg_q19;bins;1;2 to 3;0
+bfg_q19;bins;1;4 to 5;0
+bfg_q19;bins;1;6 or more;0
+bfg_q20;bins;1;8 or fewer;0
+bfg_q20;bins;1;9 to 11;0
+bfg_q20;bins;1;12 to 14;0
+bfg_q20;bins;1;15 to 17;0
+bfg_q20;bins;1;18 or more;0
+bfg_q21;bins;1;YES;0
+bfg_q21;bins;1;NO;0
+bfg_q22;bins;1;10 or fewer;0
+bfg_q22;bins;1;11 to 25;0
+bfg_q22;bins;1;26 to 50;0
+bfg_q22;bins;1;51 to 99;0
+bfg_q22;bins;1;100 or more;0
+bfg_q23;bins;1;YES;0
+bfg_q23;bins;1;NO;0
+bfg_q24;bins;1;YES;0
+bfg_q24;bins;1;NO;0
+bfg_q25;bins;1;10 or fewer;0
+bfg_q25;bins;1;11 to 20;0
+bfg_q25;bins;1;21 to 30;0
+bfg_q25;bins;1;31 to 45;0
+bfg_q25;bins;1;46 or more;0

bioscancast/stages/evaluation/bfg_summer_2026_questions.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+question_id;topic;question_text;question_type;resolution_criteria;created_date;question_status;resolved_option;comparison_to_outcome;takeaways;relevant_links
+bfg_q1;Bundibugyo Ebola (DRC-Uganda);How many cumulative laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo virus disease cases (DRC and Uganda combined) will be in WHO reporting as of October 31, 2026?;range;The latest confirmed-case total in the WHO report covering on or nearest before October 31, 2026. Source: WHO Ebola (DRC 2026) situation reports and Disease Outbreak News.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
+bfg_q2;Bundibugyo Ebola (DRC-Uganda);How many cumulative reported deaths (confirmed plus probable) in the Bundibugyo outbreak will WHO report as of December 31, 2026?;range;The death total in the WHO report covering on or nearest before December 31, 2026. Source: WHO situation reports.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
+bfg_q3;Bundibugyo Ebola (DRC-Uganda);Will the Bundibugyo virus disease PHEIC still be in effect on December 31, 2026?;binary;TRUE if the PHEIC has not been terminated by December 31, 2026. Source: WHO IHR Emergency Committee statements and the Director-General PHEIC determinations.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations
+bfg_q4;Bundibugyo Ebola (DRC-Uganda);Will at least one laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo case linked to this outbreak be reported in a country other than DRC or Uganda on or before December 31, 2026?;binary;TRUE on the first confirmed exported or third-country case attributed to this outbreak, by December 31, 2026. Source: WHO Disease Outbreak News.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
+bfg_q5;Bundibugyo Ebola (DRC-Uganda);Which Bundibugyo-relevant medical countermeasure milestone will be reached first during the outbreak window by December 31, 2026?;categorical;The first option publicly documented by December 31, 2026, or both if both occur in the window. Source: WHO, ICTRP and other trial registries, partner announcements.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://trialsearch.who.int
+bfg_q6;Avian influenza H5 (World);How many human H5 infections (any neuraminidase subtype) will be reported to WHO globally between July 1 and December 31, 2026?;range;Count of newly reported human H5 cases with onset or report date inside the window, as of December 31, 2026. Source: WHO Influenza at the human-animal interface assessments and Disease Outbreak News.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary
+bfg_q7;Avian influenza H5 (World);Will WHO or a national public health authority confirm at least one cluster meeting its stated criteria for sustained human-to-human transmission of an H5 virus on or before December 31, 2026?;binary;TRUE on a WHO or national-authority statement reporting confirmed onward human-to-human spread beyond a single generation by December 31, 2026. Source: WHO.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza
+bfg_q8;Avian influenza H5 (World);What will be the predominant H5 subtype among human cases reported globally in the second half of 2026, as of December 31, 2026?;categorical;The subtype with the most reported human cases in the window, as of December 31, 2026. Source: WHO.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/teams/global-influenza-programme/avian-influenza/monthly-risk-assessment-summary
+bfg_q9;H5N1 (US);How many US states will have cumulative H5N1 dairy-cattle detections by December 31, 2026?;range;Cumulative count of US states with H5N1 dairy-cattle detections as of December 31, 2026. Source: USDA APHIS livestock detections.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/hpai-confirmed-cases-livestock
+bfg_q10;PHEIC (World);How many new PHEICs will be declared for events not already under a PHEIC as of July 1, 2026, during July 1 to December 31, 2026?;categorical;Count of new PHEIC determinations by the Director-General in the window, as of December 31, 2026. Source: WHO.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations
+bfg_q11;PHEIC (World);How many PHEICs will be in effect on December 31, 2026?;categorical;Count of PHEICs in effect on December 31, 2026. Source: WHO.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations
+bfg_q12;Mpox (World);Will WHO declare a new PHEIC for mpox at any point between July 1 and December 31, 2026?;binary;TRUE on a fresh mpox PHEIC determination in the window, by December 31, 2026. The prior mpox PHEIC was lifted September 5, 2025. Source: WHO.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/emergencies/situation-reports
+bfg_q13;Mpox (World);How many cumulative human mpox cases will be reported to WHO globally between July 1 and December 31, 2026?;range;New confirmed cases reported in the window, as of December 31, 2026. Bins to be locked at launch. Source: WHO multi-country mpox external situation reports.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/emergencies/situation-reports
+bfg_q14;Measles (US);How many US confirmed measles cases will be reported in 2026, as of December 31, 2026?;range;US confirmed measles cases in 2026 per the CDC measles tracker, as of December 31, 2026. Source: CDC.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
+bfg_q15;Measles (US);Will the US lose measles elimination status on or before December 31, 2026?;binary;TRUE if PAHO or WHO declares the US has lost measles elimination status on or before December 31, 2026. Source: PAHO.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.paho.org/en/topics/measles
+bfg_q16;Measles (US);How many US measles-associated deaths will be reported in 2026, as of December 31, 2026?;range;US measles-associated deaths in 2026, as of December 31, 2026. Source: CDC.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
+bfg_q17;Cholera (World);How many global cholera cases will be reported in 2026, as of December 31, 2026?;range;Global cholera cases reported in 2026, as of December 31, 2026. Bins to be locked at launch. Source: WHO multi-country cholera epidemiological update.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
+bfg_q18;Dengue (Americas);How many dengue suspected cases will be reported in the Americas in 2026, as of December 31, 2026?;range;Dengue suspected cases in the Americas in 2026, as of December 31, 2026. Bins to be locked at launch. Source: PAHO dengue situation reports.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www3.paho.org/data/index.php/en/topics/indicadores-dengue.html
+bfg_q19;Chikungunya (EU-EEA);How many EU/EEA countries will report locally acquired autochthonous chikungunya in 2026, as of December 31, 2026?;range;EU/EEA countries reporting locally acquired chikungunya in 2026, as of December 31, 2026. Source: ECDC.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/chikungunya-monthly
+bfg_q20;Oropouche (Americas);How many Americas countries or territories will report confirmed Oropouche in 2026, as of December 31, 2026?;range;Americas countries or territories reporting confirmed Oropouche in 2026, as of December 31, 2026. Source: PAHO.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.paho.org/en/epidemiological-alerts-and-updates
+bfg_q21;Filovirus (World);Will WHO declare a new filovirus outbreak distinct from the ongoing Bundibugyo event between July 1 and December 31, 2026?;binary;TRUE if WHO declares a new Marburg or Ebola-species outbreak not linked to the current Bundibugyo event, by December 31, 2026. Source: WHO Disease Outbreak News.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
+bfg_q22;Poliovirus (World);How many wild poliovirus type 1 cases will be reported globally in 2026, as of December 31, 2026?;range;Wild poliovirus type 1 cases reported globally in 2026, as of December 31, 2026. Bins to be locked at launch. Source: GPEI polioeradication.org.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/this-week/
+bfg_q23;SARS-CoV-2 (World);Will WHO designate a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest or variant of concern in the second half of 2026?;binary;TRUE on any new VOI or VOC designation between July 1 and December 31, 2026. Source: WHO variant tracking.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants
+bfg_q24;Novel pathogen (World);Will WHO issue a Disease Outbreak News item for an outbreak attributed to a pathogen newly identified in humans between July 1 and December 31, 2026?;binary;TRUE if WHO issues a DON item for an outbreak attributed to a pathogen newly identified in humans as a novel species, strain, or reassortant by December 31, 2026. Committee-adjudicated. Source: WHO DON.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
+bfg_q25;WHO DON (World);How many new WHO Disease Outbreak News items will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2026?;range;Number of new WHO Disease Outbreak News items published between July 1 and December 31, 2026, as of December 31, 2026. Source: WHO DON list.;46218;unresolved;TBD;TBD;TBD;https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news