docs(research): record missed 2026-09-04 NFP capture

[Trujillofa]

Summary

Data-only record of the missed 2026-09-04 NFP pre-release capture. Canonical scripts/nfp_forward_capture.py miss appended one NFP_MISSED_CAPTURE row. No consensus, actual, snapshot URL, or verdict was invented.

Do not merge, deploy, restart, or mutate production from this PR. Review only.

Type of Change

• Documentation / research ledger update (forward CSV only)
• Bug fix
• New feature
• Refactoring
• Tests

Preflight (clear)

• origin/main = 5f1b45965e1a82844369e25873c2a1f2ab21af60
• No competing PR or commit already recording the 2026-09-04 miss
• research/nfp_forward/pending_capture.json absent in every worktree
• research/nfp_forward/pre-2026-09-04.log absent in every worktree
• No existing 2026-09-04 CSV row

Before / after status

Before:

[status] forward CSV: data/macro_events/nfp_good_news_forward.csv (0 captured, 1 missed)
[status] no pending capture
[status] next expected release: 2026-10-02 at 2026-10-02T12:30:00+00:00
[status] capture window opens:  2026-10-01T12:30:00+00:00

After:

[status] forward CSV: data/macro_events/nfp_good_news_forward.csv (0 captured, 2 missed)
[status] no pending capture
[status] next expected release: 2026-10-02 at 2026-10-02T12:30:00+00:00
[status] capture window opens:  2026-10-01T12:30:00+00:00

Appended row:

NFP_MISSED_CAPTURE,2026-09-04,2026-09-04T12:30:00Z,headline_nfp_change_k,,,,,MISSED_CAPTURE,No pre-release snapshot or pending capture existed before the 12:30 UTC release,

Testing

• uv run pytest tests/test_nfp_forward_capture.py -v (21 passed)
• uv run ruff check scripts/nfp_forward_capture.py tests/test_nfp_forward_capture.py
• uv run ruff format --check scripts/nfp_forward_capture.py tests/test_nfp_forward_capture.py
• git diff --check origin/main...HEAD

Checklist

• Single-file change: data/macro_events/nfp_good_news_forward.csv
• pre / post were not run
• DeepSeek paper window untouched
• Primary checkout research/cvd-absorption-v1 preserved
• No production mutation, provider request, scoring rerun, or evidence backfill

Notes

Missed captures carry no verdict weight. Two of three allowed misses are now booked. Next capture window opens 2026-10-01T12:30:00Z for the 2026-10-02 print.