5min BTC Polymarket Skill

Open-source OpenClaw skill for BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets on Polymarket.

Repository: https://github.com/Novals83/5min-btc-polymarket

Strategy (Momentum into Close)

This skill is aligned with a short-horizon momentum strategy:

1. Trade BTC 5m event markets near expiry.
2. Main entry window: around 2 minutes left.
3. Confirm that BTC has already moved by about $70-$100 in the active interval.
4. Check market skew (crowd positioning). If flow supports the move direction, enter with momentum.
5. Typical sizing: around 50% of trading allocation (user-defined risk tolerance).
6. Optional micro-hedge when skew is extreme (for example, 95/5): place a small opposite position ($1-$2 equivalent) to reduce tail risk.

This is a momentum-following approach, not a reversal strategy.

Repository Structure

• SKILL.md — skill definition and operating rules
• config/ — profiles and risk parameters
• scripts/ — runners/wrappers/hot commands
• examples/ — practical command examples

Deploy / Run

Prerequisites

• OpenClaw environment
• Polymarket execution stack available at:
  • <your-workspace>/pm-hl-conservative-plus-repo
• Python virtual env for runner scripts
• Valid API credentials configured outside this repository

Quick Start

git clone https://github.com/Novals83/5min-btc-polymarket.git
cd 5min-btc-polymarket

Read:

• SKILL.md
• config/btc_5m_profiles.yaml

Run a conservative real test (example):

.venv/bin/python scripts/test_btc_5m_session_exit_sl.py --profile conservative --execute

Run aggressive profile:

.venv/bin/python scripts/test_btc_5m_session_exit_sl.py --profile aggressive --execute

Unified skill control (recommended):

scripts/btc5m_ctl.sh start --profile conservative
scripts/btc5m_ctl.sh status
scripts/btc5m_ctl.sh report --limit 20
scripts/btc5m_ctl.sh stop

Runtime isolation:

• skill runtime dir: ./runtime
• auth/env source (default): <your-workspace>/pm-hl-conservative-plus-repo/.env
• overrides: BTC5M_REPO, BTC5M_ENV_FILE, BTC5M_RUNNER
• completion auto-report cron (topic 184): btc5m-completion-autoreport-topic184

Optional Docker isolation:

scripts/btc5m_docker.sh up
scripts/btc5m_docker.sh status
scripts/btc5m_docker.sh down

Execution Checklist (Before Live Trade)

Use this quick pre-flight checklist before any real order:

1. Market validity
   • Confirm the BTC 5m market is active and not about to close unexpectedly.
2. Time-to-close window
   • Prefer entries around ~120 seconds left (with reasonable tolerance).
3. Impulse confirmation
   • Confirm the observed BTC move is meaningful (strategy reference: ~$70-$100).
4. Skew confirmation
   • Verify market skew supports the intended direction (do not fade strong momentum by default).
5. Liquidity/spread checks
   • Ensure spread and top-of-book notional pass your minimum thresholds.
6. Sizing guardrails
   • Validate stake, max notional, and daily loss limits before execution.
7. Stop / exit controls
   • Confirm stop-loss and exit_before_sec are configured.
8. Execution mode
   • Start in dry-run when changing parameters; switch to --execute only after validation.

Risk Controls Template

Suggested baseline controls (adapt to your risk profile):

• Per-trade risk cap: 1%-15% of account equity (profile dependent)
• Daily max loss: hard stop at 10%-15%
• Max trades/day: fixed ceiling to avoid overtrading
• Max notional/trade: strict upper bound
• Quote staleness guard: skip if market data is stale
• Spread guard: skip when spread exceeds threshold
• Liquidity guard: skip when top ask/bid notional is too thin
• Extreme skew hedge: optional small opposite hedge in 95/5-type scenarios
• Operational kill switch: immediate stop on repeated API/DNS/execution failures

Risk Notice

This repository is educational/operational infrastructure, not financial advice. Use your own risk limits, daily loss caps, and capital controls.

Contributing

• Fork the repository
• Create a feature branch
• Commit changes
• Open a PR to main

PRs are welcome.