Release confidence gate

[KTSCode]

Release confidence gate

Goal: after mix tag --minor, the release works — no tag rollbacks, no re-releases. v0.20.0 failed twice after the tag was pushed:

1. CI build failed on the tag — Burrito 1.6.0 hard-checks Zig 0.16.0; release.yml was pinned to 0.15.2. Caught now by a workflow_dispatch dry-run of release.yml inside the mix tag gate.
2. The re-released binary was broken at runtime — Burrito 1.6.0 (feat: Zig 0.16.0 compatibility burrito-elixir/burrito#225) split the launcher argv, so Elixir consumed --daemon as a script path and halted with No file named --daemon. Caught now by bin/checks/release_smoke.sh, which runs in full mix quality (pre-push) and against the CI artifact at tag time.

Changes

• bin/checks/release_smoke.sh — builds (or accepts) a packaged binary; asserts argv passthrough (--version) and daemon boot (EPMD registration + sev status); teardown in a trap on every exit path; skips (exit 2) when the developer's daemon is running or the local toolchain can't build the release.
• .quality.exs — release_smoke custom writer stage; quick profile that skips it (plus dialyzer/coverage).
• Hooks inverted — pre-commit drops to mix quality --profile quick; new pre-push runs full mix quality. Partly reverts 56232b7: dialyzer still blocks the push, just not every commit. .claude/settings.json commit gate matches, and now uses $CLAUDE_PROJECT_DIR instead of a hardcoded path.
• Burrito downgraded to 1.5.0 (what v0.19.0 shipped with) + CI Zig re-pinned to 0.15.2. The two pins must move together — Burrito's Zig check is exact equality. Upstream fix for the argv bug is Stop Elixir's CLI consuming app arguments and halting the VM burrito-elixir/burrito#230 (unmerged); switch back when it lands.
• mix tag gate — check_release_preconditions! now dispatches release.yml, watches the run, downloads the artifact, and smokes the exact bytes CI built. Any failure (including missing/unauthenticated gh, or a skipped smoke) refuses to tag. Dispatch runs upload a workflow artifact and can never publish a release.

Red validation (smoke script vs the shipped v0.20.0 binary)

$ ./bin/checks/release_smoke.sh ~/bin/sev
release_smoke: smoking /Users/kylesanclemente/bin/sev
release_smoke: booting daemon with SEVERANCE_SHUTDOWN_TIME=17:57
{"summary":"release daemon failed to boot: never registered with EPMD","stats":{"finding_count":1},"findings":[{"file":"mix.exs","message":"sev --daemon output: No file named --daemon"}]}
exit=1

No stray process after the run; a registered severance EPMD node makes the script skip (exit 2) instead of racing the real daemon.

Green validation (CI artifact on Burrito 1.5.0)

Dispatched run 31752527839 on this branch, downloaded the burrito_out artifact, smoked sev_macos_arm64:

$ ./bin/checks/release_smoke.sh .../ci_artifact/sev_macos_arm64
release_smoke: smoking .../ci_artifact/sev_macos_arm64
release_smoke: booting daemon with SEVERANCE_SHUTDOWN_TIME=18:08
{"summary":"release binary ok: argv passthrough, daemon boot, EPMD registration, status","stats":{"finding_count":0},"findings":[]}
exit=0

No stray process, no lingering EPMD registration after the run.

Known local ceiling

MIX_ENV=prod mix release sev still fails on this machine (burrito-elixir/burrito#221: Zig 0.15.2 libc defs vs macOS 26 SDK — a build-host problem; ubuntu cross-compiles are unaffected). Locally the smoke stage reports a visible skip:

○ Release smoke: skipped (local toolchain cannot build the release (see burrito/Zig vs macOS SDK); CI builds are unaffected)

It goes green locally when burrito #230 lands.

[KTSCode]

0.20.0 rehearsal (verification step 10)

Throwaway branch with Zig re-pinned to 0.16.0 (mismatched with Burrito 1.5.0), dispatched via the same workflow_dispatch path the mix tag gate uses.

Run 31752758337: failed as expected, at MIX_ENV=prod mix release sev:

> Your Zig version does not match the one Burrito requires! We need `0.15.2`, you have: `0.16.0`
    (burrito 1.5.0) lib/burrito.ex:59: Burrito.check_zig_version/0

This is the exact v0.20.0 tag-build failure mode. The mix tag gate (gh run watch --exit-status) would refuse to tag on this result. Throwaway branch and CI run's remote branch ref deleted after capture.

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