Volatility-barrier trading on Polymarket BTC 5-minute Up/Down markets. In the final seconds before a window closes, the outcome (Chainlink end-vs-open) is often near-certain yet the thin order book still prices the favorite at ~0.97. The engine enters only when the favorite is far enough from the strike in volatility-adjusted terms to make a reversal statistically negligible.
- Backend: Node.js/TypeScript service with PostgreSQL (Supabase) database
- Frontend: Next.js dashboard with real-time WebSocket updates
- Strategy: Volatility-barrier (first-passage z-score) on BTC 5m Up/Down markets
For the current favorite, compute z = signedDistance / (sigma · sqrt(secondsLeft)),
where signedDistance is BTC's distance from the window-open strike in the
favorite's direction and sigma is BTC's live realized per-second volatility
(std of 1s returns over a trailing window). Enter only when z ≥ Z* (default
3.0) during the final entryFromWindowSeconds (default 30s), paying no more than
maxEntryPrice. Exit early only if BTC actually crosses back through the strike
(a real reversal), never on order-book price noise; otherwise hold to oracle
resolution. All parameters are environment-tunable — see backend/.env.example.
- Real-time BTC price + volatility monitoring via Chainlink RTDS WebSocket
- Automated market scanning and volatility-barrier opportunity detection
- Depth-aware simulated FAK execution with position management
- BTC-recross early exit; consecutive-loss risk guard
- Live dashboard with portfolio tracking and P&L visualization