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Copy pathBirthday_Paradox_Simulation.py
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75 lines (66 loc) · 2.59 KB
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import datetime, random
def getBirthdays(numberOfBirthdays):
birthdays = []
for i in range(numberOfBirthdays):
startOfYear = datetime.date(2001,1,1)
randomNumberOfDays = datetime.timedelta(random.randint(0,364))
birthday = startOfYear + randomNumberOfDays
birthdays.append(birthday)
return birthdays
def getMatch(birthdays):
if len(birthdays) == len(set(birthdays)):
return None
for a, birthdayA in enumerate(birthdays):
for b, birthdayB in enumerate(birthdays[a + 1 :]):
if birthdayA == birthdayB:
return birthdayA
print('''Birthday Paradox, by AI Sweigart al@inventwithpython.com
The Birday Paradox show us that in a group of N people,the odds
that two of them have matching birthdays is suprisingly large.
This program does a Monte Carlo simulation (that is, repeated random simulations) to explore this concept.
(It's not acctually a paradox, it's just a suprising result.)
''')
MONTHS = ('Jan','Feb','Mar','Apr','May','Jun','Jul','Aug','Sep','Oct','Nov','Dec')
while True:
print('How many birthdays shall I generate? (Max 100)')
response = input('> ')
if response.isdecimal() and (0 < int(response) <= 100):
numBDays = int(response)
break
print()
print('Here are',numBDays,'birthdays:')
birthdays = getBirthdays(numBDays)
for i , birthday in enumerate(birthdays):
if i !=0:
print(', ', end ='')
monthName = MONTHS[birthday.month - 1]
dateText = '{} {}'.format(monthName,birthday.day)
print(dateText,end='')
print()
print()
match = getMatch(birthdays)
print('In this simulation,',end='')
if match != None:
monthName = MONTHS[match.month - 1]
dateText = '{} {}'.format(monthName,match.day)
print('multiple people have a birthday on',dateText)
else:
print('there are no matching birthdays.')
print()
print('Generating',numBDays,'random birthdays 100,000 times...')
input('Press Enter to begin....')
print('Let\'s run another 100,000 simulations.')
simMatch = 0
for i in range(100_000):
if i % 10_000 == 0:
print(i,'simulations run...')
birthdays = getBirthdays(numBDays)
if getMatch(birthdays) != None:
simMatch = simMatch + 1
print('100,00 simulations run.')
probability = round(simMatch /100_000 * 100,2)
print('Out of 100,000 simulations of',numBDays,'people,there was a')
print('matching birthday in that group',simMatch,'times.This means')
print('that',numBDays,'people have a ',probability,'% chance of')
print('having a matching birthday in their group.')
print('That\'s probably more than you would think!')