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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en" data-theme="dark">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, viewport-fit=cover">
<title>Presentation Guide · Financial Fragility Clock · Group 5</title>
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.demo-table td:first-child { font-weight: 500; color: var(--t); white-space: nowrap; }
/* ── RUBRIC TABLE ── */
.rubric-table {
width: 100%;
border-collapse: collapse;
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margin: 16px 0;
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.rubric-table th {
font-family: var(--fm);
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color: var(--pu);
border: 1px solid var(--pu-border);
white-space: nowrap;
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/* ── PROF QUOTES ── */
.quote-card {
background: var(--s);
border: 1px solid var(--b);
border-radius: var(--r);
padding: 16px 18px;
margin-bottom: 12px;
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.quote-meaning::before {
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font-size: 10px;
letter-spacing: .1em;
text-transform: uppercase;
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display: block;
margin-bottom: 4px;
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/* ── LIGHT MODE ── */
[data-theme="light"] {
--bg: #f9f8f6;
--s: #ffffff;
--s2: #f4f3f0;
--b: rgba(0,0,0,.07);
--bm: rgba(0,0,0,.13);
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--pu-dim: rgba(113,50,245,.08);
--pu-border: rgba(113,50,245,.2);
}
[data-theme="light"] .topbar,
[data-theme="light"] .tabs-wrap {
background: rgba(249,248,246,.92);
}
/* ── RESPONSIVE ── */
@media (max-width: 480px) {
.team-grid { grid-template-columns: 1fr; }
.cheat-grid { grid-template-columns: 1fr; }
.slide-title { font-size: 14px; }
.faq-question { font-size: 14px; }
.timing-table { font-size: 13px; }
.timing-table td, .timing-table th { padding: 8px; }
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/* ── FLOATING BACK-TO-TOP ── */
.btt {
position: fixed;
bottom: calc(20px + env(safe-area-inset-bottom, 0px));
right: 16px;
width: 40px; height: 40px;
background: var(--s);
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text-decoration: none;
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.btt.visible { opacity: 1; pointer-events: all; }
.btt:hover { transform: translateY(-2px); color: var(--pu); }
/* ── BACKUP BANNER ── */
.backup-banner {
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.backup-banner strong { display: block; font-family: var(--fm); font-size: 10px; letter-spacing: .14em; text-transform: uppercase; margin-bottom: 4px; opacity: .7; }
/* ── PROGRESS BAR ── */
.progress {
position: fixed;
top: 0;
left: 0;
height: 2px;
background: var(--pu);
z-index: 300;
transition: width .1s linear;
pointer-events: none;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<div class="progress" id="progress"></div>
<!-- TOP BAR -->
<header class="topbar">
<a class="topbar-logo" href="index.html">
<div class="topbar-icon">
<svg width="16" height="16" viewBox="0 0 16 16" fill="none">
<circle cx="8" cy="8" r="6" stroke="white" stroke-width="1.5"/>
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</svg>
</div>
<span class="topbar-title"><strong>Group 5</strong> · Guide</span>
</a>
<div class="topbar-sep"></div>
<button class="theme-btn" id="themeBtn" title="Toggle theme">☀</button>
</header>
<!-- TABS -->
<nav class="tabs-wrap" id="tabs">
<div class="tabs">
<a class="tab active" href="#team">Team</a>
<a class="tab" href="#timing">Timing</a>
<a class="tab" href="#scripts">Scripts</a>
<a class="tab" href="#dashboard">Dashboard</a>
<a class="tab" href="#faq">FAQ</a>
<a class="tab" href="#rubric">Rubric</a>
<a class="tab" href="#prof">Prof</a>
</div>
</nav>
<div class="container">
<!-- ── TEAM ── -->
<section id="team">
<div class="section-eyebrow">Team Split</div>
<h1 class="section-title">4 Speakers · ~3.5 min each</h1>
<p class="section-sub">Since Jasneek is not present for the presentation, split across Rahul, Vansh, Suaad, and Sahar. The split below is just a suggestion — feel free to rearrange.</p>
<div class="team-grid">
<div class="speaker-card">
<div class="speaker-name">Vansh</div>
<div class="speaker-slides">Slide 7</div>
<div class="speaker-tags">
<span class="tag">Divergence Gap</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="speaker-card">
<div class="speaker-name">Rahul</div>
<div class="speaker-slides">Slides 2, 3, 8 + demos</div>
<div class="speaker-tags">
<span class="tag">Methodology</span>
<span class="tag">Data</span>
<span class="tag">Validation</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="speaker-card">
<div class="speaker-name">Sahar</div>
<div class="speaker-slides">Slides 1, 4, 6</div>
<div class="speaker-tags">
<span class="tag">Title</span>
<span class="tag">Crisis Test</span>
<span class="tag">Distribution</span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="speaker-card">
<div class="speaker-name">Suaad</div>
<div class="speaker-slides">Slides 5, 9</div>
<div class="speaker-tags">
<span class="tag">SHAP</span>
<span class="tag">Conclusions</span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="backup-banner">
<strong>Note</strong>
For technical questions (R², data source, model choice), whoever is most comfortable should take it — no hard rule.
</div>
</section>
<hr class="divider">
<!-- ── TIMING ── -->
<section id="timing">
<div class="section-eyebrow">Timing</div>
<h2 class="section-title">15 Minutes Total</h2>
<p class="section-sub">Buffer built in. If running long, drop the optional dashboard demos in slides 4 and 8. Times are suggestions — adjust as you go.</p>
<table class="timing-table">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Slide</th>
<th>Speaker</th>
<th>Time</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr><td>1 · Title</td><td>Sahar</td><td>1:00</td></tr>
<tr><td>2 · Methodology</td><td>Rahul</td><td>1:45</td></tr>
<tr><td>3 · The Data</td><td>Rahul</td><td>1:15</td></tr>
<tr class="demo-row"><td>→ Dashboard demo</td><td>Rahul</td><td>1:00</td></tr>
<tr><td>4 · Crisis Test</td><td>Sahar</td><td>1:30</td></tr>
<tr class="demo-row"><td>→ Dashboard (optional)</td><td>Rahul</td><td>0:30</td></tr>
<tr><td>5 · SHAP</td><td>Suaad</td><td>1:30</td></tr>
<tr><td>6 · Score Distribution</td><td>Sahar</td><td>1:00</td></tr>
<tr><td>7 · Divergence Gap</td><td>Vansh</td><td>1:00</td></tr>
<tr><td>8 · Algorithm Validation</td><td>Rahul</td><td>2:00</td></tr>
<tr class="demo-row"><td>→ Dashboard (optional)</td><td>Rahul</td><td>0:20</td></tr>
<tr><td>9 · Conclusions</td><td>Suaad</td><td>1:30</td></tr>
<tr><td>Buffer</td><td>—</td><td>0:45</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="timing-total">Total with all demos: 15:05</div>
</section>
<hr class="divider">
<!-- ── SCRIPTS ── -->
<section id="scripts">
<div class="section-eyebrow">Slide Scripts</div>
<h2 class="section-title">Speaker Notes</h2>
<p class="section-sub">This is an AI-generated reference — please use only as a starting point and ask if anything sounds off or doesn't match how you'd naturally say it.</p>
<!-- S1 -->
<div class="slide-card open" id="s1">
<div class="slide-header" onclick="toggleCard(this.parentElement)">
<div class="slide-num">1</div>
<div class="slide-meta">
<div class="slide-title">Title — "The Financial Fragility Clock"</div>
<div class="slide-speaker">Sahar · 1:00</div>
</div>
<div class="slide-time"></div>
<div class="chevron">▼</div>
</div>
<div class="slide-body">
<div class="script-block">
"Can a machine learning model detect when the Istanbul Stock Exchange is approaching a financial crisis — before it happens? We built the Financial Fragility Clock: a system that maps market data onto Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis, scoring fragility from zero to one hundred. Our core question: what changes when you add Turkey-specific context to a global-only model — and does that difference matter when the crises that actually hit Turkey hardest occur?"
</div>
<p class="rubric-note">Sets up 'background of methods' — FIH theory before the pipeline.</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- S2 -->
<div class="slide-card" id="s2">
<div class="slide-header" onclick="toggleCard(this.parentElement)">
<div class="slide-num">2</div>
<div class="slide-meta">
<div class="slide-title">Methodology — "How We Built It"</div>
<div class="slide-speaker">Rahul · 1:45</div>
</div>
<div class="chevron">▼</div>
</div>
<div class="slide-body">
<div class="script-block">
"Four steps. First, data: Model A trains on the assignment's CSV — 536 daily observations from January 2009 to August 2011, covering the ISE and 7 global indices. Model B extends this with 260+ monthly observations from 2003 to 2026, downloaded from yfinance, adding 30+ features: Turkish lira velocity, VIX lags, a CBRT policy dummy."
<br><br>
"Step two: six models — OLS, Ridge, LASSO, Elastic Net, Random Forest, and ANN. Not all of them made it to the final output. Ridge converged identically to OLS — the optimal regularisation parameter hit the minimum of our search grid, meaning L2 penalisation provided zero additional benefit. The ANN's cross-validation RMSE was six times its test RMSE on 536 rows — a known overfitting failure mode on small financial samples, documented by Zhang (2003). Both are reported in Section 2 of the notebooks."
<br><br>
"Step three: walk-forward validation on four genuine crisis windows — GFC 2008, TRY 2018, COVID 2020, Turkey 2021–24. Train before the crisis, test during it. Step four: the fragility score — composite, normalised 0–100, mapped to Minsky's Hedge, Speculative, and Ponzi regimes at thresholds 40 and 70."
</div>
<p class="rubric-note">Covers 'steps performed', 'how they did it', 'pros and cons' (Ridge/ANN exclusion).</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- S3 -->
<div class="slide-card" id="s3">
<div class="slide-header" onclick="toggleCard(this.parentElement)">
<div class="slide-num">3</div>
<div class="slide-meta">
<div class="slide-title">The Data — "Two Models, Two Stories"</div>
<div class="slide-speaker">Rahul · 1:15 + 1:00 demo</div>
</div>
<div class="chevron">▼</div>
</div>
<div class="slide-body">
<div class="script-block">
"The timeline shows the full picture. The dashed line is Model A — trained only on 2009–2011 data. The solid line is Model B. Both are scored across 2003–2026, but they diverge sharply during Turkey-specific stress. The November 2021 cards show this exactly: Model A reads 33.5, Model B reads 53.0. That 19.4-point gap is the central finding of this project."
</div>
<div class="demo-section">
<div class="demo-title">Dashboard Demo — Primary (~60 sec)</div>
<div class="demo-steps">
<div class="demo-step">
<div class="step-num">1</div>
<div class="step-text">Point at the clock face: <em>"Current score and regime — live from our latest data."</em></div>
</div>
<div class="demo-step">
<div class="step-num">2</div>
<div class="step-text">Drag scrubber back to <strong>2021-11</strong>: <em>"November 2021 — Turkey is in a currency crisis."</em></div>
</div>
<div class="demo-step">
<div class="step-num">3</div>
<div class="step-text">Toggle <strong>Model A</strong>: clock shows ~33.5. <em>"Model A: 33.5 — Hedge. Below 40. No alarm signal at all."</em></div>
</div>
<div class="demo-step">
<div class="step-num">4</div>
<div class="step-text">Toggle <strong>Model B</strong>: clock jumps to ~53.0. <em>"Model B: 53.0. Same month. 20-point difference. That's the Turkey-specific signal."</em></div>
</div>
<div class="demo-step">
<div class="step-num">5</div>
<div class="step-text">While still at Nov 2021, show <strong>SHAP panel</strong>: <em>"And you can see why — Model B has TRY volatility in its top features, Model A doesn't."</em></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="rubric-note">Return to presentation slides after demo.</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- S4 -->
<div class="slide-card" id="s4">
<div class="slide-header" onclick="toggleCard(this.parentElement)">
<div class="slide-num">4</div>
<div class="slide-meta">
<div class="slide-title">Crisis Test — "Model A Underreads Turkey"</div>
<div class="slide-speaker">Sahar · 1:30</div>
</div>
<div class="chevron">▼</div>
</div>
<div class="slide-body">
<div class="script-block">
"Four crises, four comparisons. Greek crisis 2010: both models show elevated scores — A=55.9, B=63.5. Global contagion is exactly what Model A was trained on."
<br><br>
"2018 TRY crash: A=46.9, B=52.1 — a 5.2-point gap. Model B is already elevated through TRY velocity, Model A sees only moderate stress."
<br><br>
"March 2020 COVID: A=58.8, B=71.1. This is the threshold test. Model B crosses 70 into Ponzi territory. Model A stays below. The VIX spike drives Model B through."
<br><br>
"November 2021: A=33.5, B=53.0 — a 19.4-point gap. This is the cleanest result. S&P 500 was at all-time highs, VIX was low. Model A saw no global stress. Model B saw 53 because USDTRY was accelerating and the CBRT had just fired its governor for the third time. A global model cannot see that. A model trained on Turkish context can."
</div>
<div class="key-line">"When global markets are calm and Turkish markets are stressed, Model A is structurally blind. Model B is not."</div>
<div class="demo-section">
<div class="demo-title">Dashboard — Optional (~30 sec)</div>
<div class="demo-steps">
<div class="demo-step">
<div class="step-num">→</div>
<div class="step-text">Move scrubber to <strong>2020-03</strong> · toggle A (58.8) vs B (71.1). <em>"Model B is in the red zone. Model A is not."</em></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p class="rubric-note">'Interpretation of results' — crisis comparison is the academic finding.</p>
</div>
</div>
<!-- S5 -->
<div class="slide-card" id="s5">
<div class="slide-header" onclick="toggleCard(this.parentElement)">
<div class="slide-num">5</div>
<div class="slide-meta">
<div class="slide-title">SHAP — "What Drives Each Model?"</div>
<div class="slide-speaker">Suaad · 1:30</div>
</div>
<div class="chevron">▼</div>
</div>
<div class="slide-body">
<div class="script-block">
"SHAP values show which features each model relies on structurally. Model A's top five are EM, SP500, FTSE, NIKKEI, EU — purely global co-movement. These capture shared contagion but miss Turkey-domestic stress entirely."
<br><br>