This file tracks the evolution of the Specula Method and defines, step by step, what the method is at each version. It is not a technical changelog; it is a progressive definition.
- Each version adds, clarifies, or refines what the method is.
- When updating the method, record: what changed, why, and what it enables or excludes.
- Keep the language operational, not marketing.
Definition: A six-phase strategic foresight branding method in which the Speculative Brand DNA is the output of a stress test against divergent futures, with one canonical sequence shared by the method, the Brand Operating System and the runtime schemas.
Core updates:
- Sequence: Framing moves to Phase 0; the Ethical DNA moves after Scenario Generation, into Phase 2. With the v1.1 order, the Value Stress Test checked values decided in advance.
- Phase 0: threshold conditions recorded with observable evidence in a Threshold Sheet; written consensus on research question, time window and working rules.
- Scenario construction rule: four generic futures, closed megatrends shared by all scenarios, one scenario built against the strongest declared value, horizon of 10–15 years.
- Value Stress Test: run on the operational form of each value, judged by people who did not build the scenarios, with Causal Layered Analysis as a second method.
- Brand Archaeology: traces from documents as well as stories, strategic interviews, counterexamples, a measure of change.
- Preferable future: designed after the exploration, with backcasting per scenario;
preferredis no longer a scenario type. - Criteria as hypotheses: each decision criterion carries an expected effect and a review date; the Decision Log records decisions against them.
- Guardian: every drift is classified as error, superseded model, or learning.
- Governance: who sets the values is declared, with counterweights and speaking rules; the Radar alerts on combinations of indicators.
- Time and compression declared; metrics given calculation procedures.
What this enables:
- A Value Stress Test that can fail.
- Decision criteria that change with experience while values stay stable.
- One model to read across repositories, handbook, workshop kit and site.
What this does not change:
- The seven principles, the three core gate questions, the Refusal Register.
- Confrontation, impact assessment and platforming from v1.1, now inside Phases 3, 5 and 6.
Definition: Patch update of the open documentation profile, keeping the six-phase public structure and improving runtime alignment clarity.
Core updates:
- Runtime-compatible schema profile explicitly documented and linked.
- Agent protocol constraints hardened (
MODE | PHASE, canonical phase sequence with0and1.5). - Mapping intent clarified against the private v2.4.5.x evolution track without changing the public six-phase model.
What this enables:
- More consistent agent outputs across workshop and runtime contexts.
- Lower integration ambiguity between open method assets and executable framework runtimes.
What this does not change:
- Public method release remains
v1.x. - Six-phase public narrative and ethical structure remain unchanged.
Definition: A six-phase strategic foresight branding method that uses scenarios to build living brand identities oriented to preferable futures, with a formal ethical gate and a long-term governance layer.
Core structure:
- Six phases: Scenario Generation, Competitive Futures Mapping, Brand Archeology, Future Prototyping & Ethical Gate, Narrative Synthesis, Activation & Specula Guardian.
- Ethical Gate as non-negotiable checkpoint with documented refusals.
- Specula Guardian as ongoing monitoring and re-speculation trigger.
What this enables:
- Cross-scenario coherence without collapsing to a single "best" future.
- Explicit refusal policy as part of identity.
- Continuous adaptation anchored to radical values.
What this excludes:
- Single-scenario, campaign-only branding.
- Purpose statements without operational commitments.
Definition: Early specification of Specula as a speculative identity method merging futures thinking, brand strategy, and AI-assisted divergence.
Core structure:
- Multi-scenario exploration as the starting point.
- Brand identity anchored to non-negotiable values.
- AI as a divergence partner, not as a shortcut.
Limitations:
- Governance and monitoring layers not fully formalized.
- Templates and refusal registry still embryonic.
Definition: Expanded method integrating three new operational "bridges" from the v2.4.5.2 private evolution track: Confrontation & Discursive Prototyping, a strengthened Ethical + Impact Gate, and Platforming as a continuous organizational capability.
Core updates:
- Phase reordering: Framing & Ethical DNA (formerly Brand Archeology) moved to Phase 1, before Scanning. Ethics-first is now structural, not sequential.
- New Phase 4 — Confrontation & Discursive Prototyping: Makes scenarios "live" through discursive artifacts, role-play, and situated exhibits. Community co-creation explicitly scoped to implementation of values, not values themselves.
- Ethical Gate → Ethical + Impact Gate (Phase 5): Same three core questions, now enriched with a systematic bias/impact assessment layer covering social, environmental, legal, and reputational risks; robustness across scenarios; and 30–90 day feasibility.
- New Phase 7 — Platforming: Converts speculative work from episodic project to continuous organizational capability, with governance, rituals, repository, and integrated AI roles.
- Narrative Synthesis: Demoted from standalone phase to sub-phase 6.1 of Action Design, clarifying its role as synthesis rather than endpoint.
- Daily-life scenario format: First-person vignettes, present tense, with explicit indicators.
- Explicit roles: Brand Alchemist, Futures Scout, Narrative Architect, Facilitator, Platform Steward (human); Value Guardian, Signal Harvester, Scenario Editor, Risk & Bias Spotter (AI).
- Anti-fuffa metrics: Learning Velocity, Decision Lead Time, Scenario Adoption, Brand Coherence Index, Ethical Incident Rate.
- 4–6 week rapid implementation checklist added.
- Refusal Register formalized as a structured artifact (JSON schema in specula-framework).
What this enables:
- The method now covers the full arc: from initial framing to continuous platform governance.
- Scenarios become operational tools, not conceptual deliverables — they are tested against real people and real contexts before decisions are made.
- Impact assessment is integrated into the ethical gate, not run separately.
What this does not change:
- Core philosophy: futures as tools, not predictions.
- Radical values as invariant foundation.
- AI as divergence partner, not oracle or decision-maker.
- Mandatory human validation for all ethical decisions.
- Public method remains v1.x; private framework track remains v2.x.
Source: Integrates the 14_specula_method_v2_4_5_2_aligned.md proposal (Feb 2026) from the specula-framework private evolution track. That file is now retired — specula-method is the single source of truth for the method.