3-seed confirmation + go/no-go verdict report

[lgbarn]

Parent

#1

What to build

The final gate. Retrain the sweep winner on 3 seeds; the configuration is confirmed only if every seed clears 50% OOS pass rate with zero blowups. Produce the verdict report as a self-contained HTML document in the repo docs: OOS combine pass rate vs the >= 60% bar, both baselines, median days-to-target, bust breakdown (DLL vs MLL vs timeout), per-symbol contribution, attempt count (so verdict confidence is visible), the winning knob values, and an explicit Ship / Iterate / Discard verdict on paying for a real combine.

Acceptance criteria

• 3-seed retrain runs from the logged winner configuration with only the seed varying
• The report states pass/fail against every acceptance gate from the parent PRD (>= 60% pass, baselines beaten, all seeds >= 50% with zero blows)
• Report is one self-contained HTML file in the repo docs (inline CSS/SVG, no external references)
• The verdict line is explicit: Ship / Iterate / Discard, with the one-paragraph reason

Blocked by

• Optuna sweep: composite objective + median pruning #4

[lgbarn]

PR opened: #17 — 3-seed confirmation ran on the 2025-06 -> 2026-06 holdout; every PRD gate FAILS (pooled pass rate 0.35% over 852 attempts, 813 MLL busts, policy underperforms both no-skill baselines). Verdict report: docs/topstep_100k_verdict.html — VERDICT: ITERATE (DISCARD-leaning), next levers documented. CI green, review verdict SHIP-READY.