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Example scenarios

These are the exploratory, what-if questions the challenge owners (Sebastiaan Schmidt, Tim Padmos, Thijs Raterink) supplied as the authoritative list to engage with on the working assistant. Use them as a starting point and as a sanity check that your prototype combines at least two data themes for the Must criterion in CHALLENGE.md. Several of them sharpen one of the brief's three guiding questions on a more concrete axis; one is genuinely new.

1. Dry KNMI climate scenario combined with verzilting on the Hollandse IJssel

How does drinking-water production behave under a dry KNMI climate scenario when verzilting on the Hollandse IJssel intake increases at the same time?

Sharpens the brief's Hollandse IJssel verzilting question by anchoring the climate axis on a published KNMI climate scenario instead of an unspecified shock. Touches: drinkwaterzekerheid (intake points, production chain, drinkwaterbedrijven, six-hour zones), gebiedsviewer/verzilting. Optional external source: KNMI klimaatscenario's 2050 (klimaatscenarios.knmi.nl).

2. KRW enforcement restricts agricultural land use around grondwaterbeschermingszones

If KRW enforcement leads to restrictions on agricultural land use around grondwaterbeschermingszones, which areas are affected and how does this change the protection of drinking-water sources?

New angle that the brief mentions only as regulatory context. Touches: drinkwaterzekerheid (drinkwater_infrastructuur, zes-uur-zones, intrekgebieden), gebiedsviewer (nutriënten verontreinigde gebieden, natuurnetwerk, stabiliteit), and optionally extra_data/lgn for current agricultural land use.

3. 80,000 new homes in the Zuidelijke Randstad raise water demand and pressure on soil and subsurface

What does an extra 80,000 homes in the Zuidelijke Randstad mean for drinking-water demand and for the pressure on soil and subsurface in the same area?

Concretises the population-growth axis from the brief with a specific volume. Touches: drinkwaterzekerheid (productieketen, drinkwaterbedrijven), gebiedsviewer (bodemdaling, daling bij ontwateringsdiepte, veenoxidatie, stabiliteit, overstromingskwetsbaarheid), extra_data/CBS vierkantstatistieken (population baseline), extra_data/woondeals (capaciteitskaart_afname_regionaal, PMIEK projects).

4. Combined shock: drought + loss of one intake + population peak load

What happens to drinking-water security if drought, the loss of one intake point, and a population peak load all hit at the same time?

This is the explicit Should-criterion combination from the brief: droog klimaatscenario met/zonder wegvallen innamepunt, met/zonder bevolkingsgroei. Strong fit for a comparison demo. Touches: drinkwaterzekerheid (intake points, production chain, six-hour zones, drinkwaterbedrijven), gebiedsviewer/verzilting, extra_data/CBS.

5. Optional datacenter realisation: water consumption and effect on drinking-water availability

If an additional datacenter is realised in Zuid-Holland, what is its water consumption and how does that affect drinking-water availability in the surrounding area?

Genuinely new angle, not in the brief. Treat the datacenter water profile as an explicit assumption (litres per day, location) and surface that assumption in the Insight panel. Touches: drinkwaterzekerheid (productieketen, drinkwaterbedrijven, six-hour zones), gebiedsviewer (groenblauwe ruimte, stabiliteit), extra_data/woondeals (capaciteitskaart_afname_regionaal) for grid co-location.

6. Opportunity: nature restoration in intrekgebieden improves soil filter capacity

Where in Zuid-Holland would nature restoration in intrekgebieden deliver the largest improvement in soil filter capacity, and therefore in drinking-water robustness?

Sharpens the brief's kansen in intrekgebieden question by naming the mechanism: nature restoration improving filter capacity. Touches: drinkwaterzekerheid (intrekgebieden, six-hour zones, toestandsbeoordeling), gebiedsviewer (natuurnetwerk, natuurlijke_spons_kansrijk, groenblauwe_ruimte_huidig_new, nutriënten verontreinigde gebieden), and optionally extra_data/lgn for land-use shifts.

How to use these scenarios

  • Pick one scenario as the spine of your prototype.
  • Show the reasoning chain in the Insight panel and in MLflow at http://localhost:5001.
  • For the Should criterion, demo a second scenario (or a comparison such as "with vs without verzilting shock") on the same prototype.
  • Be explicit about assumptions, data gaps, and the time horizon (2025 baseline vs 2040 projection). The brief rewards a prototype that surfaces uncertainty rather than hiding it.