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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>AI Strategy — Mental Models</title>
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</head>
<body>
<div class="page">
<nav class="navbar">
<span class="site-label">AI Strategy</span>
<a class="nav-pill" href="index.html">← Wiki</a>
<a class="nav-pill" href="companies.html">Companies</a>
<a class="nav-pill active" href="frameworks.html">Frameworks</a>
<a class="nav-pill" href="pyramid.html">Diagram ↗</a>
</nav>
<div class="hero">
<div class="hero-inner">
<div class="hero-text">
<div class="kicker">Mental Models</div>
<h1>The<br>Frameworks</h1>
<p class="deck">Eight analytical lenses that apply consistently across companies and sectors. Understanding these is the key to following the analysis.</p>
</div>
<div class="hero-meta">
<div class="meta-stat">
<div class="label">Frameworks</div>
<div class="value">8</div>
</div>
<div class="meta-stat">
<div class="label">Last Updated</div>
<div class="value blue" style="font-size:15px;">May 2026</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="sec-div">
<div class="arrow">►</div>
<div class="lbl">Core Frameworks</div>
<div class="sub-lbl">8 analytical lenses</div>
</div>
<div class="section">
<h2 class="sh">The Mental Models</h2>
<p class="sub">These frameworks apply consistently across companies and sectors. Understanding them is the key to following the analysis.</p>
<div class="fw-grid">
<div class="fw-card">
<h4>Aggregation Theory</h4>
<p>In zero-marginal-cost businesses, the entity that aggregates users captures value from suppliers. AI increases supply further, which makes aggregators stronger — not weaker.</p>
</div>
<div class="fw-card">
<h4>Sustaining vs. Disruptive Innovation</h4>
<p>AI is sustaining for incumbents — it makes them better at what they already do. True disruption requires a new business model. Companies with the right existing model benefit most.</p>
</div>
<div class="fw-card">
<h4>Unified Content Business Model</h4>
<p>Zero marginal cost + large fixed creation costs = subscription + advertising hybrid. Applies to music, video, news, and AI services alike. The inevitable endpoint for any scaled AI product.</p>
</div>
<div class="fw-card">
<h4>Business Model > Technology Disruption</h4>
<p>New technology is seldom disruptive on its own. Significant disruption happens when new technologies enable new asymmetric business models. Technology alone doesn't kill incumbents.</p>
</div>
<div class="fw-card">
<h4>Thick vs. Thin Clients</h4>
<p>Historically, powerful local hardware won. AI reverses this: the best answer comes from cloud-scale models. Chat interfaces require almost no device capability. MacBook Neo at $599 is the proof point.</p>
</div>
<div class="fw-card">
<h4>The Decision Economy</h4>
<p>The "feed" was the Internet's native business model. The AI-native equivalent hasn't been invented yet. Tentative framing: capture value at the moment of decision, not attention.</p>
</div>
<div class="fw-card">
<h4>Opportunity Cost of Compute</h4>
<p>AI compute is an opportunity cost problem. Every chip used for one purpose can't be used for another. This is why the 2029 chip shortage is baked in — rational, sequential investment decisions.</p>
</div>
<div class="fw-card">
<h4>Individualized Network Effects</h4>
<p>Every successful network business makes every user's experience unique. Spotify, Facebook, TikTok appear singular but are completely individualized. AI makes this more powerful still.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="sec-div">
<div class="arrow">►</div>
<div class="lbl">The Core Assumption</div>
<div class="sub-lbl">What could break everything</div>
</div>
<div class="section">
<h2 class="sh">The Single Assumption Never Questioned</h2>
<p class="sub">Every framework above rests on one axiomatic belief.</p>
<div class="big-quote" style="margin-top:16px;">
<p>AI capabilities will continue to improve on a predictable trajectory. This is treated as given. But S-curves are only identifiable in retrospect. If improvement stalls, every framework above requires revisiting — and the $700B+ in annual CapEx becomes the largest misallocation in corporate history.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div class="footer">
Living document · Updated as new articles publish
</div>
</div>
</body>
</html>