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a/docs/research/2026-rewrite-efficacy-prereg.md b/docs/research/2026-rewrite-efficacy-prereg.md index b6ba1c86..87cb90a9 100644 --- a/docs/research/2026-rewrite-efficacy-prereg.md +++ b/docs/research/2026-rewrite-efficacy-prereg.md @@ -684,6 +684,22 @@ Bridge results on the 108 archived S1-D passages (reference on the same passages Selection rule (highest AUC among admitted) picks **`judge-gemini-3.7-flash`**. From this note on, stage 1 is a two-judge panel (`judge-gpt` + `judge-gemini-3.7-flash`) plus det: the admitted judge scores every stored P/S body from rows finished so far, and the runner is restarted with both judges for the remaining rows. The results doc drops the *single-perceptual-judge* label and reports every candidate above. The deepseek bridge may be resumed for the record only; it cannot change the selection. +### Study 4 — dated note 2026-09-04 (before any stage 2 row): stage 2 (en) started on the owner's instruction + +Stage 1 (ko) closed on 2026-09-03 with H-4b not supported. The owner asked to resume; stage 2 runs under the identical registered rules. Before the first row: (1) the 42 Arm-A1 documents inherit Study 1's `spok` exclusion (pilot Deviation 4); (2) the second-judge seat is re-bridged on the 84 archived Arm-A1 passages (42 originals + 42 S1 rewrites) with the English judge prompt under the same admission rule — `judge-gemini-3.7-flash` was admitted on Korean only. The bridge verdict is recorded in `artifacts/rewrite-efficacy-study4/bridge-en-verdict-gemini-3.7-flash.json`; if it fails, `judge-gemini-3.1-pro` is bridged next, and if neither passes stage 2 runs single-perceptual-judge as registered. Plumbing is smoke-tested on a synthetic English paragraph only. + +### Study 4 — dated note 2026-09-04 (before any stage 2 row): stage 2 judge seat + +EN bridge on the 84 archived Arm-A1 passages: `judge-gemini-3.7-flash` (Gemini API, the local research key — not the product keys, which the owner rotated to product-only use the same day) scored 84/84, **AUC 0.994**, Spearman vs gpt **0.911** (reference: gpt AUC 1.000, grok AUC 0.998, Spearman(grok, gpt) 0.894) — admitted. A subscription-only transport of the same model (`judge-gemini-3.7-flash-cli`, gemini CLI) was bridged in parallel to avoid API-key use; it produced 8/84 scores and then timed out three times in a row on consecutive passages (180 s each), so it is **not admitted** and its partial rows are discarded. Stage 2 therefore runs with the same two-judge panel as stage 1: `judge-gpt` + `judge-gemini-3.7-flash` (API) plus the det chief. + +### Study 4 — correction 2026-09-04: the "CLI" gemini transport was also API-key authenticated + +On this machine the gemini CLI's effective auth is `gemini-api-key` (`~/.gemini/settings.json` → `security.auth.selectedType`) and `GEMINI_API_KEY` is exported in the login shell, so every gemini CLI call in this study — the 2026-09-02 gemini-2.5-pro bridge (108 passages) and the 2026-09-04 `judge-gemini-3.7-flash-cli` bridge (8 passages before timeouts) — was billed to the local research key, not to a subscription. The earlier notes' "subscription-only" wording for that transport is withdrawn; the transports differ only in sampling defaults. Nothing about the admitted judge, the panel, or any row changes. + +### Study 4 — dated note 2026-09-04 (after stage 2): stage 2 closed; detail-token definition flaw on English + +Stage 2 (en, 42/42) closed **not supported** (paired d +3.7 [−3.5, +10.8]; det +12.1 [+4.5, +20.6]; floor met 42/42; meaning gate 38/42 violated). Post-hoc observation, not a criterion change: the registered detail-token regex `[A-Za-z][A-Za-z0-9+._-]+` matches every English word, so H-4b-c retention and guard rail 3 are vocabulary-overlap measures on English and are reported as such in the results doc. Both stages are complete; nothing ships; the next candidate is H-4a. + ## Sources - Self-Preference Bias in LLM-as-a-Judge — arXiv:2410.21819 - TH-Bench (humanizing attacks vs detectors) — arXiv:2503.08708 diff --git a/docs/research/2026-rewrite-efficacy-study4.md b/docs/research/2026-rewrite-efficacy-study4.md index ac84f176..bf076607 100644 --- a/docs/research/2026-rewrite-efficacy-study4.md +++ b/docs/research/2026-rewrite-efficacy-study4.md @@ -161,12 +161,61 @@ the production prompt. The next candidate on the registered list is **H-4a — deterministic merge/split with seam-only LLM infill** — the first mechanism that acts on the architecture the judges keep naming. -## Stage 2 (en) - -Registered to run after stage 1 with identical rules. Not started as of -2026-09-03: the runner spends the owner's Claude subscription window (the -same quota interactive sessions use), and the Korean result is decisive. If -the owner wants the English data point, the bridge must first be re-run on the -84 archived Study 1 Arm-A1 passages (the gemini-3.7-flash seat was admitted on -Korean only), then `S4_STAGE=en` runs the same harness. A deferral is -recorded here as a dated note per the registration; it is not a withdrawal. +## Stage 2 (en) — completed 2026-09-04: **NOT supported either** + +Run 2026-09-04 07:02 → 10:15 UTC on the owner's instruction, 2 supervisor +passes, no session-limit hits. The 42 Study 1 Arm-A1 documents (21 AI + 21 +human; `spok` excluded per pilot Deviation 4), same rewriter, English +production prompt (template `72428aea…`), English constraint block +(`81e2e53c…`) and retry suffix (`b320025b…`). Panel: `judge-gpt` + +`judge-gemini-3.7-flash` (re-admitted on the 84 archived English passages: +AUC 0.994, Spearman vs gpt 0.911 against grok's 0.894; the gemini CLI +transport of the same model timed out and was not admitted). Det chief +fresh-corpus accuracy on the English originals was **0.762 < 0.85**, so per +panel v2 the binary det column is disabled and only the continuous det score +is reported. + +| | P (plain) | S (specificity) | paired d = S − P (95% CI) | +|---|---:|---:|---| +| AI docs, panel AI-likeness (n=21) | 81.8 | **85.5** | **+3.7 [−3.5, +10.8]** | +| AI docs, det chief (continuous) | 11.3 | **23.4** | **+12.1 [+4.5, +20.6]** | +| human docs, panel (n=21) | 10.5 | 9.5 | −0.9 [−3.3, +1.9] (guard rail 2 held) | + +- **H-4b-a: NOT SUPPORTED.** The point estimate is positive again and the + interval includes zero. AI-call rate 95.2% → 95.2% (discordant 2 vs 2). +- **The floor executed this time.** Unlike Korean, every English S row met + the 98% floor (42/42; mean 1.67 attempts on AI docs). The plain rewrite + compresses English hard (P length ratio **0.806** on AI docs, 0.908 on + human); S restored it to 1.03 / 1.00. So stage 2 is the clean test of the + hypothesis that stage 1 could not deliver: with the length actually held, + the constrained rewrite still reads *more* AI-like to both the panel and + the deterministic scorer. +- **Copy check:** S median trigram Jaccard 0.630 vs P 0.540 on AI docs; on + human docs 0.885 vs 0.746 (just under the 0.90 "rewrote less" line). +- **Guard rail 1: 38/42 = 90.5% — VIOLATED** (no corpus-artifact documents + in this arm; four real dropped numbers in S; P 37/42). Rails 2 and 3 held. +- **Cue mix on AI docs still called "ai":** structural share fell from 35% + (P) to 18% (S) while the specificity-absence class rose from 11 to 17 of 40 + cues. English judges name different residual tells than Korean judges + (Korean: 84–92% structural), and keeping the length did not remove them. +- **Descriptive gpt-only:** S1 rw1 74.0 | P 86.0 | S 89.5 on AI docs — the + same upward drift of today's plain rewrite versus July's that stage 1 + showed (prompt changed twice since; judge drift possible). + +**Metric caveat found after the fact (not a criterion change):** the +registered detail-token definition counts every Latin token of two or more +letters, which in English is every word. The English "retention" (P 45% → +S 64%) and "added tokens" (~130 per document in both arms) therefore measure +vocabulary overlap, not concrete details, and guard rail 3 is vacuous for +English. The numbers-and-quotes part of the definition is unaffected; a +future English stage needs a detail definition that excludes ordinary +words. Recorded here and in the prereg as a dated note. + +### Combined verdict + +Both stages fail the registered primary criterion in the same direction and +both violate the meaning gate. In Korean the model would not hold the floor; +in English it held the floor and the result got worse. The hypothesis that +the plain rewrite's lost specificity is what judges react to is not +supported in either language. Nothing ships; the next candidate remains +H-4a. diff --git a/scripts/research/rewrite-efficacy-study4-bridge.mjs b/scripts/research/rewrite-efficacy-study4-bridge.mjs index b73a5956..f95e69ea 100644 --- a/scripts/research/rewrite-efficacy-study4-bridge.mjs +++ b/scripts/research/rewrite-efficacy-study4-bridge.mjs @@ -14,13 +14,21 @@ import { } from './study4-common.mjs'; // BRIDGE_JUDGE selects the candidate (default: the original gemini CLI judge). +// BRIDGE_STAGE=en bridges on the archived Study 1 Arm-A1 passages (spok +// excluded per pilot Deviation 4) with the English judge prompt; files carry +// an `en-` prefix. Default stage ko = Arm D. const JUDGE_ID = process.env.BRIDGE_JUDGE || 'judge-gemini'; const JUDGE = JUDGE_DEFS[JUDGE_ID]; if (!JUDGE) throw new Error(`unknown bridge judge ${JUDGE_ID}`); +const STAGE = process.env.BRIDGE_STAGE === 'en' ? 'en' : 'ko'; +const S1_ARM = STAGE === 'en' ? 'A1' : 'D'; +const EXCLUDED_REGISTERS = new Set(['spok']); const SUFFIX = JUDGE_ID === 'judge-gemini' ? '' : `-${JUDGE_ID.replace(/^judge-/u, '')}`; -const ROWS = join(OUT_DIR, `bridge-gemini${SUFFIX}.jsonl`.replace('bridge-gemini-', 'bridge-')); -const VERDICT = join(OUT_DIR, `bridge-verdict${SUFFIX}.json`); -const LOG = join(OUT_DIR, `bridge-run${SUFFIX}.log`); +const STAGE_PREFIX = STAGE === 'en' ? 'en-' : ''; +const ROWS = join(OUT_DIR, `bridge-${STAGE_PREFIX}gemini${SUFFIX}.jsonl`.replace(`bridge-${STAGE_PREFIX}gemini-`, `bridge-${STAGE_PREFIX}`)); +const VERDICT = join(OUT_DIR, `bridge-${STAGE_PREFIX}verdict${SUFFIX}.json`); +const LOG = join(OUT_DIR, `bridge-${STAGE_PREFIX}run${SUFFIX}.log`); +const EXPECTED = STAGE === 'en' ? 84 : 108; const RULE = { min_auc: 0.85, spearman_slack: 0.10, reference: 'grok-vs-gpt on the same passages' }; function analyze(log) { @@ -36,10 +44,12 @@ function analyze(log) { const aucGpt = auc(originals.filter((r) => r.source_class === 'ai').map((r) => r.gpt?.ai_likeness).filter(Number.isFinite), originals.filter((r) => r.source_class === 'human').map((r) => r.gpt?.ai_likeness).filter(Number.isFinite)); const aucGrok = auc(originals.filter((r) => r.source_class === 'ai').map((r) => r.grok?.ai_likeness).filter(Number.isFinite), originals.filter((r) => r.source_class === 'human').map((r) => r.grok?.ai_likeness).filter(Number.isFinite)); const complete = rows.length; - const admitted = complete >= 100 && aucGemini !== null && rhoGeminiGpt !== null && rhoGrokGpt !== null + const admitted = complete >= Math.floor(EXPECTED * 0.93) && aucGemini !== null && rhoGeminiGpt !== null && rhoGrokGpt !== null && aucGemini >= RULE.min_auc && rhoGeminiGpt >= rhoGrokGpt - RULE.spearman_slack; const verdict = { computed_at: new Date().toISOString(), + stage: STAGE, + s1_arm: S1_ARM, rule: RULE, passages_scored: complete, originals: originals.length, @@ -58,7 +68,7 @@ function analyze(log) { label: admitted ? 'panel-v2-deviation-gemini' : 'single-perceptual-judge', }; writeFileSync(VERDICT, JSON.stringify(verdict, null, 2) + '\n'); - log(`bridge verdict [${JUDGE_ID}]: scored ${complete}/108; AUC gemini ${fmt(aucGemini)} (gpt ${fmt(aucGpt)}, grok ${fmt(aucGrok)}); rho gemini-gpt ${fmt(rhoGeminiGpt)} vs grok-gpt ${fmt(rhoGrokGpt)} (gemini-grok ${fmt(rhoGeminiGrok)}); admitted=${admitted}`); + log(`bridge verdict [${JUDGE_ID}] stage ${STAGE}: scored ${complete}/${EXPECTED}; AUC gemini ${fmt(aucGemini)} (gpt ${fmt(aucGpt)}, grok ${fmt(aucGrok)}); rho gemini-gpt ${fmt(rhoGeminiGpt)} vs grok-gpt ${fmt(rhoGrokGpt)} (gemini-grok ${fmt(rhoGeminiGrok)}); admitted=${admitted}`); return verdict; } @@ -70,8 +80,8 @@ async function main() { const log = makeLogger(LOG); if (process.argv.includes('--analyze')) { analyze(log); return; } - const s1Rows = readJsonl(join(S1_DIR, 's1-rows-D.jsonl')); - const texts = loadS1Texts('D'); + const s1Rows = readJsonl(join(S1_DIR, `s1-rows-${S1_ARM}.jsonl`)).filter((r) => !EXCLUDED_REGISTERS.has(r.register)); + const texts = loadS1Texts(S1_ARM); const passages = []; for (const r of s1Rows) { const t = texts.get(r.original_sha); @@ -80,11 +90,11 @@ async function main() { if (r.rewrite_sha && t.rewritten) passages.push({ key: `${r.original_sha}:rewrite`, original_sha: r.original_sha, cond: 'rewrite', source_class: r.source_class, text: t.rewritten, archived: r.judges?.rewrite ?? {} }); } const done = new Set(readJsonl(ROWS).filter((r) => r.gemini && Number.isFinite(r.gemini.ai_likeness)).map((r) => r.key)); - log(`bridge start [${JUDGE_ID}] — ${passages.length} passages, ${done.size} already scored`); + log(`bridge start [${JUDGE_ID}] stage ${STAGE} (S1 arm ${S1_ARM}) — ${passages.length} passages, ${done.size} already scored`); let failures = 0; for (const p of passages) { if (done.has(p.key)) continue; - const gemini = await judgeOnce(JUDGE, p.text, 'ko'); + const gemini = await judgeOnce(JUDGE, p.text, STAGE); if (gemini.error) { failures += 1; log(`${p.key}: gemini FAILED — ${gemini.error}`); diff --git a/scripts/research/rewrite-efficacy-study4.mjs b/scripts/research/rewrite-efficacy-study4.mjs index 9eee196e..e9f600ab 100644 --- a/scripts/research/rewrite-efficacy-study4.mjs +++ b/scripts/research/rewrite-efficacy-study4.mjs @@ -45,7 +45,12 @@ const PREFIX = SMOKE_FILE ? 's4-smoke' : 's4'; const OUT_JSONL = join(OUT_DIR, `${PREFIX}-rows-${STAGE}.jsonl`); const TEXTS_JSONL = join(OUT_DIR, `${PREFIX}-texts-${STAGE}.private.jsonl`); const LOG = join(OUT_DIR, `${PREFIX}-run-${STAGE}.log`); -const VERDICT = join(OUT_DIR, 'bridge-verdict.json'); +// Stage-specific bridge verdict for the admitted second judge (ko: the +// gemini-3.7-flash amendment verdict; en: the en bridge). S4_JUDGES overrides. +const VERDICT = join(OUT_DIR, STAGE === 'en' ? 'bridge-en-verdict-gemini-3.7-flash.json' : 'bridge-verdict-gemini-3.7-flash.json'); +// Pilot Deviation 4: the HAP-E `spok` register is not written prose; Study 1 +// excluded it and stage 2 inherits the exclusion (42 = 21 + 21 documents). +const EXCLUDED_REGISTERS = new Set(['spok']); const REWRITE_TIMEOUT_MS = 900_000; // raised 600s -> 900s at doc 12 (S attempt 2 timeout), Study 3 precedent; execution note, no criterion change const FLOOR = 0.98; @@ -197,7 +202,7 @@ async function judgeAll(judges, text, lang) { function resolveJudges(log) { if (process.env.S4_JUDGES) return process.env.S4_JUDGES.split(',').map((s) => s.trim()).filter(Boolean); if (process.env.S4_USE_GROK === '1') return ['judge-gpt', 'judge-grok']; - if (!existsSync(VERDICT)) throw new Error('bridge-verdict.json missing — run rewrite-efficacy-study4-bridge.mjs first (registered admission rule)'); + if (!existsSync(VERDICT)) throw new Error(`${VERDICT} missing — run rewrite-efficacy-study4-bridge.mjs for this stage first (registered admission rule)`); const verdict = JSON.parse(readFileSync(VERDICT, 'utf8')); log(`bridge verdict ${verdict.label}: judges ${verdict.judges.join(', ')} (AUC gemini ${verdict.auc_gemini?.toFixed?.(3)}, rho gemini-gpt ${verdict.spearman_gemini_gpt?.toFixed?.(3)} vs grok-gpt ${verdict.spearman_grok_gpt?.toFixed?.(3)})`); return verdict.judges; @@ -217,7 +222,7 @@ async function main() { const judges = resolveJudges(log); for (const id of judges) if (!JUDGE_DEFS[id]) throw new Error(`unknown judge ${id}`); - let s1Rows = readJsonl(join(S1_DIR, `s1-rows-${S1_ARM}.jsonl`)).filter((r) => r.original_sha); + let s1Rows = readJsonl(join(S1_DIR, `s1-rows-${S1_ARM}.jsonl`)).filter((r) => r.original_sha && !EXCLUDED_REGISTERS.has(r.register)); let texts = loadS1Texts(S1_ARM); if (SMOKE_FILE) { const smokeText = readFileSync(SMOKE_FILE, 'utf8').trim(); diff --git a/scripts/research/study4-common.mjs b/scripts/research/study4-common.mjs index 452a4483..4063e1d0 100644 --- a/scripts/research/study4-common.mjs +++ b/scripts/research/study4-common.mjs @@ -18,6 +18,9 @@ export const JUDGE_TIMEOUT_MS = 180_000; export const JUDGE_ATTEMPTS = 3; const HTTP_CLI = [join('scripts', 'research', 'judge-http-cli.mjs')]; +// Detached runners can start without nvm on PATH; resolve the gemini CLI once +// (S3 did the same for codex). Falls back to a bare `gemini` lookup. +const GEMINI_BIN = process.env.GEMINI_BIN || ['/home/devswha/.nvm/versions/node/v24.18.0/bin/gemini', join(process.env.HOME || '', '.nvm', 'versions', 'node', 'v24.18.0', 'bin', 'gemini')].find((p) => existsSync(p)) || 'gemini'; const http = (id, family, baseURL, keyEnv, model) => ({ id, family, cmd: 'node', args: HTTP_CLI, env: { JUDGE_BASE_URL: baseURL, JUDGE_API_KEY_ENV: keyEnv, JUDGE_MODEL: model }, @@ -25,7 +28,7 @@ const http = (id, family, baseURL, keyEnv, model) => ({ export const JUDGE_DEFS = Object.freeze({ 'judge-gpt': { id: 'judge-gpt', family: 'gpt', cmd: 'codex', args: ['exec', '--skip-git-repo-check', '--sandbox', 'read-only'] }, - 'judge-gemini': { id: 'judge-gemini', family: 'gemini', cmd: 'gemini', args: ['-p', '', '--output-format', 'text', '--skip-trust', '--allowed-mcp-server-names', NO_MCP_SERVERS, '-m', 'gemini-2.5-pro'] }, + 'judge-gemini': { id: 'judge-gemini', family: 'gemini', cmd: GEMINI_BIN, args: ['-p', '', '--output-format', 'text', '--skip-trust', '--allowed-mcp-server-names', NO_MCP_SERVERS, '-m', 'gemini-2.5-pro'] }, 'judge-grok': { id: 'judge-grok', family: 'xai', cmd: 'node', args: [join('scripts', 'research', 'xai-cli.mjs')] }, // Bridge candidates without xAI credit (2026-09-02 amendment): API judges on // the OpenAI-compatible endpoints patina's providers already use. @@ -33,6 +36,12 @@ export const JUDGE_DEFS = Object.freeze({ 'judge-gemini-3.1-pro': http('judge-gemini-3.1-pro', 'gemini', 'https://generativelanguage.googleapis.com/v1beta/openai', 'GEMINI_API_KEY', 'gemini-3.1-pro-preview'), 'judge-deepseek-v4-pro': http('judge-deepseek-v4-pro', 'deepseek', 'https://api.deepseek.com', 'DEEPSEEK_API_KEY', 'deepseek-v4-pro'), 'judge-kimi-k3': http('judge-kimi-k3', 'moonshot', 'https://api.moonshot.ai/v1', 'KIMI_API_KEY', 'kimi-k3'), + // Same model as judge-gemini-3.7-flash through the gemini CLI. NOTE: on a + // machine where the CLI's auth type is gemini-api-key (or GEMINI_API_KEY is + // exported) this is API-key billed too — it is NOT a subscription path. + // Transport differs (CLI default sampling vs API temperature 0), so it is + // bridged separately before use. Not admitted for Study 4 (timeouts). + 'judge-gemini-3.7-flash-cli': { id: 'judge-gemini-3.7-flash-cli', family: 'gemini', cmd: GEMINI_BIN, args: ['-p', '', '--output-format', 'text', '--skip-trust', '--allowed-mcp-server-names', NO_MCP_SERVERS, '-m', 'gemini-3.7-flash'] }, }); export const sha = (s) => createHash('sha256').update(s, 'utf8').digest('hex').slice(0, 16);