Reviewed 2026-09-04. This is a condensed source map, not a claim to have read every capture event or rerun a live bot. The investigation covered the original Private reports, StratA/B lineage, archived VPS code and logs, latency patches, fill audits and the later wallet cash reconciliation. No bot was started, restarted or allowed to place an order during this review.
Paths below identify the owner's private source archive; those files are not included in this public repository. Summaries distinguish historical reports, inspected code and newly recomputed log statistics.
| Claim | Source | What it establishes |
|---|---|---|
| Early oracle updates approximately every 27 seconds | polybowtwo/POLYBOW_REPORT.md, chapters 1–2 |
Historical observation of a data-source update interval, not an end-to-end execution benchmark. The early report also explicitly rejects theoretical-price simulation profits. |
| v1 → StratA → StratB → cheap variants | polybow-live/_analysis/stratb_lineage_edge_report.md, Lineage |
Original favorite entries; StratA's $0.40–$0.72 / 11–15-second band; broader StratB configurations; subsequent cheap-fill experiments. |
| Branches overlap | polybow-live/ALL_SESSIONS_ANALYSIS.md, generated April 22 |
v1, StratA and StratB coexisted. Do not describe their chronology as four isolated, sequential trials. Its local P&L is not used as wallet truth. |
| Event-driven hot evaluation | archived_vps_polybow/_staging/polybow_stratB/patch_event_driven.py; corresponding live_monitor.py |
Priority book callbacks invoke evaluation; a nonblocking lock coordinates the main loop and callback. Original 50 ms throttle; archived monitor line 1319 sets 5 ms. That is a gate, not measured latency. |
| Dublin execution stack | polybow-live/CLAUDE.md, order-execution notes; archived monitor/order helper |
Historical notes specify AWS Dublin, HTTP/2, coincurve signing. Notes quote about 80 ms POST and 0.55 ms per signature, but contain no raw benchmark sample. These are not displayed as newly verified results. |
| Metadata and connection work | _optimize_latency.py, _patch_prewarm_cache.py, archived live_orders.py |
Startup warmup, dedicated HTTP/2 keepalive client, token cache and parallel metadata fetch. The keepalive uses a separate client: it does not by itself prove reuse of the order client's socket. |
| UC maker/taker experiment | _patch_latency_maker.py, _patch_uc_stack.py |
Maker bids below the ask; April 28 patch attempts a second taker leg. This can increase exposure; it is not evidence of profitable fills. |
| April 28 exchange upgrade | Polymarket CLOB V2 migration guide, official changelog, v1/docs/V2_NOTES.md |
Production moved to new exchange contracts and a rewritten CLOB backend; pUSD replaced USDC.e; signed-order fields and match-time fee handling changed; open orders were wiped. This establishes the venue change and date, not a causal link to this wallet's later results. |
| May 2 internal changes | _remove_all_simulator_checks.py, _stub_simulator.py; archived monitor |
Removal of paper-state per-market/capital guards; replacement of the simulator by a no-op. These are bot code changes, not the April 28 exchange upgrade. |
The archived StratB monitor also retains different price-source paths: its hot path uses drift-corrected Binance first, while the main-loop section disables Binance. The archive does not support describing the entire deployment as one uniform, fully validated signal path.
Read-only extraction with latency.py, from every complete [LAT_DETAIL] row
in each of the following files. No wins, fills or fast rows were selected.
Base: polybow-live/archived_vps_polybow/_staging/.
| Log | UTC range on 2026-05-03 | Rows | API response statuses |
|---|---|---|---|
polybow_stratB/live.log |
00:44:50.931–04:54:53.632 | 52 | 51 live/resting; 1 matched |
polybow_stratB_ultracheap/live.log |
00:44:50.914–01:59:55.816 | 22 | 22 live/resting |
| Milliseconds | StratB median | StratB p95 | UC median | UC p95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Build order | 1.7 | 7.4 | 1.9 | 5.0 |
| POST response | 32.85 | 292.2 | 29.45 | 287.6 |
| Preparation + response | 35.35 | 298.0 | 33.0 | 289.2 |
Median uses exact decimal inputs; p95 uses nearest rank. Displayed one-decimal values round half up. The total includes metadata preparation, order building and the API response. It excludes upstream feed delay, earlier decision time, matching and on-chain settlement. Component medians do not add to the median total. StratB's maximum total was 521.4 ms; UC's was 293.0 ms.
These are May 3 samples from this lineage, not a current production benchmark or an exhaustive search for the newest timing in later unrelated experiments. They are not a controlled before/after test against the early feed's 27-second update interval. The Dublin deployment was not rebenchmarked on August 29.
_analysis/stratb_lifetime_live_trade_audit.md reports that the May 3 “matched”
row could not be verified through the Data API/RPC. It is retained in the
latency statistics because an API response was timed, not counted as a fill.
SHA-256 of the input logs:
StratB 7422551524adb3afd3ce50e2fd484cc4d7456b8fc7049cd1e5503b8b93a5ca34
UC d3c072eea406e0fcf04f775cf4d9f3673c0a82eda291148287332b93a482377e
Reproduce if you have those private source files:
python latency.py /path/to/polybow_stratB/live.log /path/to/polybow_stratB_ultracheap/live.logThe raw logs are not published because they contain order-level identifiers. Hashes identify inputs; they are not a substitute for public access to them.
The source of the cash figures is
polybow-live/WALLET_RUNUP_FULL_FORENSIC_20260715.md. It supersedes earlier
cash interpretations in the June audits and forensic PDFs:
- Observed initial trading collateral: $19.979317 USDC.e.
- Maximum observed liquid stablecoins: $210.215219 on May 2 at 18:41:54 UTC.
- Lifetime activity-linked settled trading cash P&L: −$13.700515.
- Separate, non-activity contract transfers: $6.25 out. Their purpose is unresolved; they are not silently classified as trading losses.
- Stablecoin dust at the July audit: $0.038307, including native USDC.
The public CSV instead reconstructs gross market-resolution P&L: −$5.53, with an assumed $18 start, $221.40 peak and $12.47 end. Those are not liquid wallet balances. The public chart and its calculations remain unchanged and are now secondary to the corrected cash interpretation.
The July audit attributes most gains to a small cluster of low-price BTC winners; 90.06% of reconstructed run-up profit lacks reliable single-bot attribution. After the peak, the next 17 markets with average entry below $0.10 had no wins. More frequent trading and larger average positions followed.
The files and official Polymarket documentation establish an April 28 CLOB V2
cutover and separate May 2 internal bot changes. They do not establish a
controlled causal link between either event and loss of edge. The later private
research_lottery/VERDICT.md analysis found no durable stale-ask tickets in
12,929 markets from June 26 through July 10; a full-stream scan of 104.5 million
BBO updates found one trigger and apparent crosses that vanished within 0.02
seconds. That supports a changed later market environment, but the recordings
lacked order sizes, August data was unavailable, and attributing the change
specifically to CLOB V2 remains an inference. Accordingly, the page does not
state that a specific patch definitively killed an otherwise proven strategy,
or that Dublin latency alone caused the profitable cluster.
This was a real-money experiment followed by loss of the run-up, not evidence of durable profitability.