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Research Program: From Engine to Publishable Result

Reviews the proposed six-step plan, corrects two things, and lays out the executable version with concrete milestones.

1. The proposed plan, reviewed

1. Implement classical SLAM from scratch
2. Analyse each module's bottlenecks
3. Design a new world-model structure and objective
4. Add new optimisation and memory structures
5. Benchmark against existing models
6. Propose as a new algorithm if improvement is confirmed

This is the correct shape of a systems-research program — build, measure, redesign, compare, claim. Two corrections, one of them serious.

Correction 1 (serious): evaluation must move from step 5 to step 1.5

You cannot design toward a capability you cannot measure. If the benchmark is not in place before the design work, the design will drift toward whatever is measurable — which today means ATE on TUM/EuRoC. ATE is saturated, and it does not measure a single thing WME claims to improve:

WME claims Measured by ATE?
Graceful degradation under night / fog / blur No
Calibrated uncertainty No
Object identity persistence across occlusion and loops No
Change detection ("what changed?") No
Prediction quality No
Recovery without map reset No

A system tuned to improve ATE will not improve any of these. Worse, at review time, "we improve ATE by 4% on fr1_desk" is a rejection; the interesting claims will have no numbers behind them because nobody built the measurement.

So the benchmark is not the last step. It is the second step, and it is itself a contribution — there is no existing benchmark for world-model SLAM capabilities.

Correction 2: do not reimplement the baselines

"Implement classical SLAM from scratch" reads two ways.

  • As a baseline for comparison: don't. Use the official ORB-SLAM3 / DSO / DROID-SLAM releases with their published configurations. A self-implemented baseline that underperforms is the fastest way to lose a reviewer — the assumption will be that you crippled it, and that assumption is usually correct. Cost: months. Value: negative.

  • As understanding, and as ablations of your own system: yes, and it is essential. The scientifically meaningful "classical comparison" is an ablation of WME itself:

    Ablation Isolates
    fixed noise instead of Σ_k(E) the heteroscedastic claim
    hand-scheduled α_k(E) weights the calibration claim
    frozen Hungarian association the deferred-association claim
    Tier 0 only (no TCG, no SPA) direct-method baseline, internally consistent
    Tier 1 only how far objects alone get you
    no dynamic masking the token-masking claim
    BoW/NetVLAD instead of TCG the constellation claim, head-to-head

    These are far more convincing than an external baseline, because every confound is held fixed. External baselines establish absolute competitiveness; ablations establish causal attribution. A strong paper needs both, and the ablations carry the argument.

Step 2's "bottleneck analysis" then becomes: instrument the official baselines and measure where they actually fail (tracking-loss events, association-error rate, uncertainty miscalibration under conditions), rather than inferring bottlenecks from a reimplementation.

2. The corrected program

0. Engine foundation                                       ← done (Phases 1–2b)
1. Evaluation framework + simulation benchmark             ← critical path, start now
2. Baseline instrumentation: where do they actually break?
3. Close the loop: factor graph, calibrated Σ_k(E)
4. New structures: hybrid association, memory, prediction
5. Full comparison: baselines + ablations, real + simulated
6. Claim only what survives

3. Why simulation is not optional

Real datasets cannot supply what WME needs to be evaluated on:

Requirement Real datasets Simulation
Fog density sweep 0.0 → 1.0, same trajectory impossible trivial
Ground-truth object identity through occlusion none exact
A scene where exactly one object moved between visits essentially none scripted
Ground-truth "was this the same chair" none exact
Per-condition repeatability for calibration fitting no yes
Ground-truth future object trajectories no exact

The controlled-condition sweep matters most: to fit Σ_k(E) you need many traversals of the same trajectory under varied, known conditions. No dataset provides this. Simulation is the only way to obtain the calibration data, and calibration is what separates the principled formulation from a tuned heuristic (see 04-unified-objective.md §4.2).

Simulation is for calibration and controlled ablation. Real datasets are for external validity. Both, and neither substitutes for the other. Claims fitted in simulation must be shown to transfer to TUM/KITTI/Robotcar, and that transfer test is itself a result.

Simulator choice

Option Verdict
Own lightweight synthetic generator Start here. Full control, deterministic, no dependencies, runs in CI. Sufficient for geometry/association/calibration studies. Implemented in wme.sim.
Habitat / AI2-THOR Next. Photorealistic indoor, object annotations, scene-change scripting. Right for the semantic and change-detection claims.
CARLA For outdoor/driving, weather is built in. Right for the adverse-condition claims at scale.
Isaac Sim Only if physical interaction is needed. Heavy.

The own-generator step is not throwaway: it is what lets calibration and association studies run deterministically in CI, and it is the only harness where ground truth for every quantity is available simultaneously.

4. Metrics that must exist before the design work

Beyond ATE/RPE, the following are required. All are implemented in wme.eval.metrics.

Uncertainty calibration — the most important, and the one most systems fail.

  • NEES (Normalised Estimation Error Squared) with χ² consistency bounds
  • ANEES over a sequence; a system reporting ANEES ≫ dof is overconfident
  • Reliability diagram / expected calibration error for existence beliefs

Degradation — the headline claim.

  • Performance vs. condition-severity curve, not a single number
  • Catastrophic-failure rate (tracking lost and not recovered)
  • Recovery latency after conditions improve

Identity and association

  • Identity switches (IDS), mostly-tracked / mostly-lost (MOT-style, but in 3D world frame)
  • Association error rate against ground-truth correspondence
  • Post-loop-closure duplicate-object rate — WME's specific claim that constellation matches merge histories rather than duplicating them

Change understanding

  • Change detection precision/recall, separated by change type: moved / removed / added
  • Time-to-detect after a change
  • False-change rate under pure sensor degradation (does fog look like the world changed?)

Prediction

  • Displacement error at horizons (0.5 s, 1 s, 2 s)
  • Predictive negative log-likelihood — measures whether predicted uncertainty is honest, not just the mean
  • Surprise-detection latency for unannounced changes

Systems

  • Bit-identical replay under varying thread counts
  • p50/p95/p99 latency per module

5. Milestones

# Deliverable Gate to pass before proceeding
M1 wme.sim generator + wme.eval.metrics metrics validated on synthetic cases with known answers
M2 Baselines running on TUM/EuRoC + instrumented reproduce published numbers within noise
M3 Factor graph closing the loop, Σ_k(E) calibrated in sim ANEES within χ² bounds — if this fails, the formulation is wrong
M4 Hybrid association, memory, prediction ablations show causal attribution
M5 Full comparison: sim + TUM + EuRoC + Robotcar night/rain degradation curves beat baselines where claimed; honest reporting where they don't
M6 Paper(s) only claims that survived M5

M3's gate is the real decision point. If calibrated uncertainty cannot be achieved, the "one posterior" thesis is not supported and the program should pivot to the narrower TCG contribution, which stands on its own.

6. Expected outcome, stated honestly in advance

Committing to this now, so the results are interpreted rather than rationalised:

  • Likely true: WME degrades more gracefully than baselines under night/fog/blur; TCG relocalises where BoW fails; token masking beats direct methods on dynamic sequences; uncertainty is better calibrated than baselines (a low bar).
  • Likely false: WME beats ORB-SLAM3 on ATE in clean, object-sparse sequences. It should not, and reporting it as a loss strengthens the paper.
  • Genuinely unknown: whether Σ_k(E) calibrated in simulation transfers to real sensors; whether object-level MHT stays tractable in cluttered scenes.

If the "likely false" row turns out true, be suspicious of the experiment before being pleased with it.