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State the thor-3 result's strength under both pooling choices
The note gave one power figure, computed against a confidence floor from a single run of the failing host. Pooling that host's two runs instead moves the floor from 0.36% to 1.92% and takes the same clean 300 from "not excluded" (P = 0.33) to "decisive" (P = 0.003), with the two hosts' intervals disjoint. Neither number is wrong; they answer different questions. Pooling assumes the two runs on that host sample one rate, and they differ 4x -- 15/300 against 4/300 -- so the conservative statement is the unpooled one. Both are now given, along with the point that the gap between them is a choice about pooling rather than anything measured on the clean host. Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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examples/33_gpt_oss_megakernel/common/barrier.py

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@@ -69,11 +69,19 @@ def _barrier_noinv(bar_ptr, target):
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The host sorts every run. It is ONE MACHINE, not a node family -- thor-3 is the same
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family as thor-2 and is clean at full length.
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How strong that is: 0/300 on thor-3 excludes thor-2's measured rate (P = 0.008 at 1.6%)
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but not the bottom of its interval (P = 0.27 at 0.44%). So thor-3 does not behave like
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thor-2 at any rate actually observed there, and a rate below ~0.4% is not excluded. Note
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also that thor-2's own two runs disagree by 4x (15/300 and 4/300), so the host sorts the
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outcome without producing a stable rate underneath it.
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How strong that is, and it depends on which thor-2 estimate you compare against:
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thor-2 pooled 19/600 95% CI [1.92%, 4.90%] disjoint from thor-3's [0, 1.22%]
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P(0 in 300 | 1.92% floor) = 0.003 decisive
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thor-2 lowest run 4/300, floor 0.36%
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P(0 in 300 | 0.36%) = 0.33 not excluded
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Pooling thor-2's two runs assumes they sample one rate, and they differ 4x (15/300 and
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4/300), so the conservative read is the second line: thor-3 is clean against every rate
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actually observed on thor-2, and a rate at the bottom of its weakest run is not ruled
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out. Either way the host sorts whether it fails without producing a stable rate
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underneath -- and the difference between "decisive" and "not excluded" here is entirely
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a choice about pooling, not new data about thor-3.
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THE COMPARISON THAT DOES HOLD IS ON ONE MACHINE. Restricting to thor-2, the only host
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where `buffer_inv sc0` has ever failed, and taking every full-length run of either

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