Merge pull request #124 from QuantStrategyLab/codex/qsl-p3-catalog-evidence-demotion-20260812-thread019ff1cb

Fail closed unevidenced crypto catalog runtime claim

Author: Pigbibi

README.md

@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ These profiles depend on artifacts produced by `CryptoLivePoolPipelines` before
 
 | Profile | Name | Notes |
 | --- | --- | --- |
-| `crypto_live_pool_rotation` | Crypto Live Pool Rotation | runtime-enabled trend-following rotation that consumes the ordered live pool published by CryptoLivePoolPipelines. The legacy `crypto_leader_rotation` profile remains an alias for compatibility. Runtime code may gate and size trades inside that pool, but monthly selection and order remain upstream. |
+| `crypto_live_pool_rotation` | Crypto Live Pool Rotation | research-backtest-only trend-following rotation that consumes the ordered live pool published by CryptoLivePoolPipelines. The legacy `crypto_leader_rotation` profile remains an alias for compatibility. Its runtime/live catalog claim is not currently evidenced by accepted promotion-grade evidence-v2 plus an exact human acceptance identity; this does not assert that the strategy or runtime target is invalid or inactive. |
 
 ### Research-only candidates
 

docs/thesis-ledger.json

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
       "last_verified": "2026-07-08",
       "verdict": "active",
       "hit_rate": null,
-      "status_note": "runtime_enabled"
+      "status_note": "research_backtest_only; NOT_CURRENTLY_EVIDENCED is a catalog-claim status, not a finding of invalidity or runtime inactivity"
     },
     "crypto_btc_dca": {
       "thesis": "BTC 智能定投在波动分层下优于固定金额 DCA",

src/crypto_strategies/catalog.py

@@ -21,6 +21,10 @@
 CRYPTO_BTC_DCA_PROFILE = "crypto_btc_dca"
 CRYPTO_TREND_ROTATION_PROFILE = "crypto_trend_rotation"
 CRYPTO_EQUITY_COMBO_PROFILE = "crypto_equity_combo"
+CATALOG_NOT_CURRENTLY_EVIDENCED_BLOCKED_REASON = (
+    "Runtime/live catalog claim blocked: current accepted promotion-grade evidence-v2 "
+    "and exact human acceptance identity are not currently evidenced."
+)
 
 CRYPTO_CANONICAL_REQUIRED_INPUTS = frozenset(
     {
@@ -249,13 +253,16 @@
         canonical_profile=CRYPTO_LIVE_POOL_ROTATION_PROFILE,
         display_name="Crypto Live Pool Rotation",
         localized_display_names={"zh": "加密实时池轮动"},
-        description="Trend-following crypto rotation with staged entries, degradation controls, and cash parking.",
+        description=(
+            "Trend-following crypto rotation with staged entries, degradation controls, and cash parking. "
+            + CATALOG_NOT_CURRENTLY_EVIDENCED_BLOCKED_REASON
+        ),
         aliases=CRYPTO_LIVE_POOL_ROTATION_ALIASES,
         cadence="daily",
         asset_scope="liquid_crypto_assets",
         benchmark="BTC",
         role="crypto_offensive_rotation",
-        status="runtime_enabled",
+        status="research_backtest_only",
     ),
     CRYPTO_BTC_DCA_PROFILE: StrategyMetadata(
         canonical_profile=CRYPTO_BTC_DCA_PROFILE,

tests/test_catalog.py

@@ -10,9 +10,12 @@
 )
 
 
-def test_only_live_pool_rotation_remains_runtime_enabled() -> None:
-    assert get_runtime_enabled_profiles() == frozenset({CRYPTO_LIVE_POOL_ROTATION_PROFILE})
-    assert get_strategy_metadata(CRYPTO_LIVE_POOL_ROTATION_PROFILE).status == "runtime_enabled"
+def test_live_pool_rotation_is_research_only_without_accepted_evidence() -> None:
+    assert get_runtime_enabled_profiles() == frozenset()
+    metadata = get_strategy_metadata(CRYPTO_LIVE_POOL_ROTATION_PROFILE)
+    assert metadata.status == "research_backtest_only"
+    assert "current accepted promotion-grade evidence-v2" in metadata.description
+    assert "exact human acceptance identity" in metadata.description
 
 
 def test_non_live_crypto_profiles_are_not_runtime_enabled() -> None: