feat: enhance crypto DCA strategies with smart sizing and exit

- crypto_btc_dca: add AHR999 cycle multiplier, drawdown-based sizing,
  Z-score exit (逃顶), execution window, and bilingual i18n
- crypto_trend_rotation: fix empty btc_snapshot bug, add circuit breaker
  and volatility-based position scaling
- crypto_equity_combo: simplify to pure combinator, delegate BTC leg
  to enhanced smart DCA
- Extract shared utilities to _utils.py
- Add backtest script comparing 5 DCA strategies (2021-2026)
- Update catalog configs and entrypoints

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: Pigbibi

scripts/research_crypto_dca_backtest.py

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+"""Shared utilities for crypto strategies (no cross-package dependency)."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+from typing import Any
+
+import pandas as pd
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+def coerce_float(value: Any, default: float = 0.0) -> float:
+    try:
+        numeric = float(value)
+    except (TypeError, ValueError):
+        return default
+    if pd.isna(numeric):
+        return default
+    return numeric
+
+
+def coerce_bool(value: Any, default: bool = False) -> bool:
+    if value is None:
+        return default
+    if isinstance(value, bool):
+        return value
+    if isinstance(value, str):
+        normalized = value.strip().lower()
+        if normalized in {"1", "true", "yes", "y", "on"}:
+            return True
+        if normalized in {"0", "false", "no", "n", "off"}:
+            return False
+    return bool(value)
+
+
+def normalize_symbol(symbol: object) -> str:
+    return str(symbol or "").strip().upper()
+
+
+def as_clamped_ratio(value: Any, *, default: float) -> float:
+    numeric = coerce_float(value, default=float("nan"))
+    if pd.isna(numeric):
+        return float(default)
+    return max(0.0, min(1.0, float(numeric)))
+
+
+def payload_numeric(payload: dict[str, Any], *keys: str) -> float:
+    lowered = {str(key).strip().lower(): value for key, value in payload.items()}
+    for key in keys:
+        value = lowered.get(key.lower())
+        numeric = coerce_float(value, default=float("nan"))
+        if not pd.isna(numeric):
+            return numeric
+    return float("nan")
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# i18n
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+
+def translate_with_fallback(
+    translator,
+    key: str,
+    *,
+    fallback_en: str,
+    fallback_zh: str,
+    **kwargs: object,
+) -> str:
+    if translator is None:
+        template = fallback_zh
+    else:
+        try:
+            translated = translator(key, **kwargs)
+        except Exception:
+            translated = key
+        if translated == key:
+            template = fallback_zh if translator_uses_zh(translator) else fallback_en
+        else:
+            return str(translated)
+    try:
+        return template.format(**{str(k): v for k, v in kwargs.items()})
+    except (KeyError, ValueError):
+        return template
+
+
+def translator_uses_zh(translator) -> bool:
+    try:
+        sample = str(translator("no_trades"))
+    except Exception:
+        return False
+    return any("一" <= char <= "鿿" for char in sample)

src/crypto_strategies/_utils.py

@@ -71,6 +71,51 @@
 }
 
 CRYPTO_BTC_DCA_DEFAULT_CONFIG = {
+    "base_investment_usd": 100.0,
+    "max_investment_usd": None,
+    "cash_reserve_usd": 0.0,
+    "min_investment_usd": 5.0,
+    "smart_multiplier_enabled": True,
+    "cycle_indicator_enabled": True,
+    "cadence": "monthly",
+    "monthly_day": 25,
+    "monthly_window_calendar_days": 5,
+    "weekly_day": 4,
+    "weekly_window_calendar_days": 4,
+    "quarterly_months": (1, 4, 7, 10),
+    "quarterly_day": 25,
+    "quarterly_window_calendar_days": 5,
+    # Drawdown thresholds
+    "mild_drawdown_threshold": 0.12,
+    "deep_drawdown_threshold": 0.25,
+    "severe_drawdown_threshold": 0.40,
+    "mild_discount_gap": 0.08,
+    "deep_discount_gap": 0.18,
+    "expensive_gap": 0.30,
+    "very_expensive_gap": 0.60,
+    "shallow_drawdown_threshold": 0.05,
+    "overbought_rsi": 75.0,
+    "base_multiplier": 1.0,
+    "mild_pullback_multiplier": 1.50,
+    "deep_pullback_multiplier": 2.25,
+    "severe_pullback_multiplier": 3.0,
+    "expensive_multiplier": 1.0,
+    "very_expensive_multiplier": 1.0,
+    # AHR999 thresholds
+    "ahr999_bottom_threshold": 0.45,
+    "ahr999_accumulation_threshold": 0.80,
+    "ahr999_dca_threshold": 1.20,
+    "ahr999_bottom_multiplier": 3.0,
+    "ahr999_accumulation_multiplier": 2.25,
+    "ahr999_dca_multiplier": 1.50,
+    "ahr999_expensive_multiplier": 0.0,
+    # Z-score exit
+    "zscore_exit_enabled": True,
+    "zscore_exit_parking_symbol": "USDT",
+    "zscore_exit_risk_reduced_exposure": 0.50,
+    "zscore_exit_risk_off_exposure": 0.25,
+    "zscore_exit_allow_outside_execution_window": True,
+    # Legacy params (kept for backward compat)
     "target_ratio_min": 0.0,
     "target_ratio_max": 0.65,
     "ratio_base": 0.14,
@@ -87,12 +132,20 @@
     "weight_mode": "inverse_vol",
     "allow_rotation_refresh": True,
     "atr_multiplier": 2.5,
+    "circuit_breaker_enabled": True,
+    "btc_drawdown_threshold": 0.30,
+    "vol_scaling_enabled": True,
+    "target_vol": 0.40,
+    "max_leverage": 1.0,
 }
 
 CRYPTO_EQUITY_COMBO_DEFAULT_CONFIG = {
     "btc_weight": 0.30,
     "trend_weight": 0.70,
     "dynamic_mode": True,
+    "circuit_breaker_enabled": True,
+    "btc_drawdown_threshold": 0.30,
+    "vol_scaling_enabled": True,
 }
 
 STRATEGY_DEFINITIONS: dict[str, StrategyDefinition] = {
@@ -191,7 +244,7 @@
         display_name="Crypto BTC DCA",
         description="Dynamic BTC DCA strategy that targets a single BTCUSDT position with equity-scaled allocation.",
         aliases=(),
-        cadence="daily",
+        cadence="daily_check_monthly_execution",
         asset_scope="btc_only",
         benchmark="BTC",
         role="crypto_core_accumulation",

src/crypto_strategies/catalog.py

@@ -274,19 +274,27 @@ def evaluate_crypto_live_pool_rotation(ctx: StrategyContext) -> StrategyDecision
 def evaluate_crypto_btc_dca(ctx: StrategyContext) -> StrategyDecision:
     from crypto_strategies.strategies.crypto_btc_dca import compute_signals
 
+    config = _merge_runtime_config(ctx, crypto_btc_dca_manifest.default_config)
     prices = _require_market_data(ctx, "market_prices")
     portfolio = _resolve_portfolio_snapshot(ctx)
     account_metrics = _resolve_account_metrics(ctx)
     total_equity = account_metrics["total_equity"]
+    derived_indicators = ctx.market_data.get("derived_indicators")
+    translator = _resolve_translator(config)
 
     result = compute_signals(
         prices=prices,
         portfolio=portfolio,
         total_equity=total_equity,
         state=dict(ctx.state),
+        derived_indicators=derived_indicators,
+        translator=translator,
+        **config,
     )
 
     btc_target_ratio = float(result.get("btc_target_ratio", 0.0))
+    metadata = result.get("metadata", {}) if isinstance(result.get("metadata"), dict) else {}
+
     positions = [
         PositionTarget(
             symbol="BTCUSDT",
@@ -307,11 +315,23 @@ def evaluate_crypto_btc_dca(ctx: StrategyContext) -> StrategyDecision:
     risk_flags: tuple[str, ...] = ()
     if btc_target_ratio <= 0.0:
         risk_flags += ("no_btc_allocation",)
+    if not metadata.get("actionable", True):
+        risk_flags += ("no_execute",)
 
     diagnostics = {
         "btc_target_ratio": btc_target_ratio,
         "total_equity": total_equity,
         "profile": result.get("profile"),
+        "signal_description": metadata.get("signal_description", ""),
+        "status_description": metadata.get("status_description", ""),
+        "regime": metadata.get("regime", "ordinary_dca"),
+        "multiplier": metadata.get("multiplier", 1.0),
+        "smart_multiplier_enabled": metadata.get("smart_multiplier_enabled", True),
+        "planned_investment_usd": metadata.get("planned_investment_usd", 0.0),
+        "in_execution_window": metadata.get("in_execution_window", True),
+        "zscore_exit": metadata.get("zscore_exit", {}),
+        "ahr999": metadata.get("ahr999", float("nan")),
+        "mayer_multiple": metadata.get("mayer_multiple", float("nan")),
     }
 
     return StrategyDecision(
@@ -338,6 +358,7 @@ def evaluate_crypto_trend_rotation(ctx: StrategyContext) -> StrategyDecision:
     config = _merge_runtime_config(ctx, crypto_trend_rotation_manifest.default_config)
     feature_snapshot = _require_market_data(ctx, "derived_indicators")
     prices = _require_market_data(ctx, "market_prices")
+    translator = _resolve_translator(config)
 
     # Build a feature_snapshot from indicators_map
     import pandas as pd
@@ -351,11 +372,15 @@ def evaluate_crypto_trend_rotation(ctx: StrategyContext) -> StrategyDecision:
     weights, signal_desc, is_emergency, debug_str, metadata = compute_signals(
         feature_snapshot=feature_frame,
         current_holdings=list(prices.keys()),
+        translator=translator,
         trend_pool_size=int(config.get("trend_pool_size", 5)),
         rotation_top_n=int(config.get("rotation_top_n", 2)),
         weight_mode=str(config.get("weight_mode", "inverse_vol")),
         allow_rotation_refresh=bool(config.get("allow_rotation_refresh", True)),
         atr_multiplier=float(config.get("atr_multiplier", 2.5)),
+        circuit_breaker_enabled=bool(config.get("circuit_breaker_enabled", True)),
+        btc_drawdown_threshold=float(config.get("btc_drawdown_threshold", 0.30)),
+        vol_scaling_enabled=bool(config.get("vol_scaling_enabled", True)),
     )
 
     positions: list[PositionTarget] = []
@@ -418,6 +443,7 @@ def evaluate_crypto_equity_combo(ctx: StrategyContext) -> StrategyDecision:
     benchmark_snapshot = _require_market_data(ctx, "benchmark_snapshot")
     portfolio = _resolve_portfolio_snapshot(ctx)
     universe_snapshot = list(_require_market_data(ctx, "universe_snapshot"))
+    translator = _resolve_translator(config)
 
     weights, signal_desc, has_cash_residual, status_desc, metadata = compute_signals(
         prices=prices,
@@ -426,9 +452,15 @@ def evaluate_crypto_equity_combo(ctx: StrategyContext) -> StrategyDecision:
         benchmark_snapshot=benchmark_snapshot,
         portfolio=portfolio,
         state=dict(ctx.state),
+        translator=translator,
         btc_weight=float(config.get("btc_weight", 0.30)),
         trend_weight=float(config.get("trend_weight", 0.70)),
         dynamic_mode=bool(config.get("dynamic_mode", True)),
+        smart_multiplier_enabled=bool(config.get("smart_multiplier_enabled", True)),
+        cycle_indicator_enabled=bool(config.get("cycle_indicator_enabled", True)),
+        zscore_exit_enabled=bool(config.get("zscore_exit_enabled", True)),
+        circuit_breaker_enabled=bool(config.get("circuit_breaker_enabled", True)),
+        vol_scaling_enabled=bool(config.get("vol_scaling_enabled", True)),
     )
 
     positions: list[PositionTarget] = []