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[Commerce] Add Etsy ad candidate recommendation from sales and listing evidence #162

Description

@Nickel85

Goal

Suggest which listings are candidates for Etsy ads using imported sales and listing evidence before full Etsy Ads performance import exists.

Signals

  • Recent sales velocity.
  • Listing performance score.
  • Bundle/deal recommendation status.
  • Seasonal relevance.
  • Physical vs digital listing type.
  • Average order value and net contribution proxy.
  • Variation demand.

Acceptance Criteria

  • Produces ad candidate recommendations with rationale, evidence, confidence, and suggested test duration.
  • Distinguishes scale-up candidates from test candidates and avoid-ad candidates.
  • Explains why a listing should not be advertised when economics, discounts, or weak sales evidence do not support it.
  • Integrates with existing ad decision log and experiment plan issues rather than bypassing them.
  • Does not claim ROI without ad spend/click/conversion data.
  • Includes tests for strong sellers, low-evidence listings, coupon-heavy listings, seasonal listings, and digital vs physical listings.

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    area: commerceCommerce agents, storefront APIs, inventory, orders, listings, and seller workflowsenhancementNew feature or requestroadmap: etsy-ad-managementEtsy listing, order, ad analytics, and LLM recommendation roadmap track

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